Severe Thunderstorm Warning 313, NWS Tallahassee, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
337 PM EDT Tue Aug 18 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 154 PM EDT Tue Aug 18 2026

- Long-duration hazardous heat wave continues for another few
  days, though extreme heat is unlikely beyond today. Heat
  products will keep being issued accordingly. Very warm nighttime
  temperatures offer little relief. Please exercise heat safety:
  www.weather.gov/safety/heat.

- While rain chances taper off some through the middle of the
  week, thunderstorms remain in the forecast, especially by the
  week's end. Strong-gusty winds, frequent lightning and locally
  heavy rain are the main threats.

- The heat wave is poised to break late this week or early
  weekend, which likely opens the door for a more convectively
  active pattern late this week and into some of the weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This Evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 154 PM EDT Tue Aug 18 2026

For the rest of the afternoon/evening scattered showers and storms
are expected to develop ahead of a weak mid-level trough
approaching the forecast area from the northwest. A deeply
unstable airmass combined with high mixing heights, thanks to the
heat, should allow fairly strong wind gusts in the strongest
storms this afternoon/evening. This is typically an environment
favorable for microbursts so localized damaging wind gusts can't
be ruled out in any severe storms. This risk has been highlighted
by a marginal (level 1 of 5) risk of severe weather by the Storm
Prediction Center with the afternoon update. These risks stretch
from southern Alabama into the Florida Panhandle and Big Bend.
Thunderstorm activity should continue in the early evening hours
before gradually winding down through the evening.

The heat finally begins to slowly relent into Wednesday as we
begin to see the influence of a weak mid level trough dropping
south into the southeast US. This will help bring some drier mid-
level air into the region and with it lower dewpoints. This should
remove most concerns for heat advisories across our Alabama and
Georgia counties (outside extreme southern Georgia along the
Florida border). Further to the south, the relief from this trough
won't be as large, with the ridge weakening it should take the
edge of the heat we've seen lately and it's unlikely extreme heat
warnings are necessary for Wednesday. However, we'll still see
advisory level heat indices around 108-112F.

Similar to this afternoon, another round of scattered showers and
storms is expected Wednesday afternoon, though most activity will
be focused across our Florida counties with rain chances ranging
from 50 to 60% across Florida to only 10% across our northern
counties in central Georgia and southeast Alabama. Like today, an
isolated strong storm can't be ruled out, but the lower max
temperatures should reduce the microburst potential somewhat.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through next Monday)
Issued at 154 PM EDT Tue Aug 18 2026

The weak trough that moved through Wednesday will gradually cut-
off across the northern Gulf through the end of the week as daily
chances for showers and storms continue. Relief from the heat will
continue to be very gradual. Most of our Florida counties are
still likely to see heat advisories into the end of the week.
However, the threat will certainly become more borderline. Daily
chances for shower and thunderstorms are expected in the presence
of the cut-off low and these chances will last into the weekend
ahead of a broader mid-level trough moving into the southeast US.

With the higher chances of showers and thunderstorms early this
weekend with the trough, and the drier air moving in late this
weekend behind it, we should finally get an area-wide break from
the heat advisories.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 138 PM EDT Tue Aug 18 2026

Better moisture resides from southeast AL southeast to the Big
Bend and this is the favored area for convection today. First
along the seabreeze later this afternoon with additional
development into southern AL. Strong and gusty winds will
accompany stronger storms along with frequent lightning and heavy
rainfall. VFR expected outside of storms through tonight with
brief periods of MVFR/IFR underneath heavier convection. Towards
dawn, there is a low probability of MVFR vsbys but not enough
confidence to add into TAFs attm.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 154 PM EDT Tue Aug 18 2026

Persistent high pressure maintains favorable boating conditions
the next several days outside of thunderstorms, for which chances
increase Wednesday through Saturday. Prevailing gentle to moderate
west winds are forecast with daily afternoon seabreezes across
the immediate nearshore legs. Daily chances for showers and storms
can be expected, especially in the overnight and morning hours.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 154 PM EDT Tue Aug 18 2026

The main fire concerns continue to be areawide hazardous heat
conditions persisting through at least mid week and daily chances
for afternoon thunderstorms. However, the heat will slowly abate
with advisories likely not being needed by the weekend. High
temperatures well into the 90s will be common with heat indices
of 108 to 112 into Friday afternoon. Thunderstorms will be
capable of frequent lightning, gusty/erratic winds, and locally
wetting rains are additional threats. Prevailing west to NW winds
are forecast outside of daily afternoon seabreezes across our
Florida counties.

The heat and thunderstorm activity should be greatest across the
FL zones as a weak frontal system slides south. This front will
bring drier conditions and lower heat concerns across our AL/GA
counties by the end of the week, but the drier air could bring
some localized fire weather concerns into the forecast.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 154 PM EDT Tue Aug 18 2026

Thunderstorms will be capable of producing localized nuisance
flooding in urban, poor-drainage, and low-lying areas. Otherwise,
there are no significant hydrological concerns the next several
days. All area rivers are currently running well below action
stage.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   77  96  76  97 /  20  50  10  50
Panama City   80  93  80  93 /  20  40  20  50
Dothan        75  95  75  97 /  20  20  10  10
Albany        76  97  74  99 /  20  10  10  10
Valdosta      76  97  75  97 /  20  30  20  50
Cross City    77  95  76  94 /  20  30  40  60
Apalachicola  80  92  79  92 /  10  40  30  50

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for FLZ007.

     Heat Advisory from 11 AM EDT /10 AM CDT/ to 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/
     Wednesday for FLZ007>019-027>029-034-108-112-114-115-118-
     127-128-134-326-426.

     Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ this evening for
     FLZ008>019-027>029-034-108-112-114-115-118-127-128-134-326-
     426.

     High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for FLZ112-114.

GA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for GAZ120>131-142>148-
     161.

     Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM EDT Wednesday for GAZ155>161.

     Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM EDT this evening for GAZ155>160.

AL...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for ALZ065>069.

GM...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...Dobbs
LONG TERM....Dobbs
AVIATION...Scholl
MARINE...Dobbs
FIRE WEATHER...Dobbs
HYDROLOGY...Dobbs

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