Severe Thunderstorm Warning 295, NWS Tallahassee, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
244 PM EDT Fri Aug 14 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 244 PM EDT Fri Aug 14 2026

- A prolonged heat wave is underway and will continue through
  through next week. The most extreme heat risk is expected during
  the first half of the next work week. Stay hydrated, take
  frequent breaks in air- conditioned spaces, avoid strenuous
  activities during the hottest part of the day, and wear light
  clothing.

- Isolated severe storms are expected on Saturday afternoon and
  evening. Damaging wind gusts, frequent lightning, and torrential
  downpours are the main concerns. Most of the tri-state region
  has a Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 5) of severe thunderstorms on
  Saturday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This Evening through Saturday)
Issued at 244 PM EDT Fri Aug 14 2026

Satellite-derived Precipitable Water (PW) imagery shows a very
moist air mass from North Florida up into Central Georgia and
Central Alabama. Values within our region range from 2.0 to 2.4
inches, and surface dewpoints are in the very muggy mid 70s to
lower 80s, i.e. air you can wear. The SPC mesoanalysis shows the
air mass is extremely unstable this afternoon, with surface-based
CAPE in the 4000-4500 J/kg range. Low-mid level flow is weak
today, northwesterly at under 10 knots. Thunderstorms will
continue to expand in coverage over the next few hours. Without
wind flow to aid in organization, storms will quickly decrease in
the couple of hours after sunset.

The convective environment on Saturday will be similarly unstable
with weak background flow. However, Downdraft CAPE will be
higher, supporting stronger microbursts. Subtle weather features
will also aid broad low-level convergence, which will further
increase convective coverage. One on those subtle features will be
a slight sharpening of a surface trough extending southwest down
the Atlantic Coastal Plain of the Carolinas and eastern Georgia,
which will reinforce the NW flow over GA and AL, albeit weak. The
other feature will be the westward movement of a tropical wave
across far South Florida and into the Southeast Gulf, which will
bring a surge of SE flow in its wake. The NW flow regime over
GA/AL and the SE flow regime over the FL Peninsula will meet over
our region, aiding in low-level convergence and the lift needed to
trigger thunderstorms.

Of course, we will continue along through the first half of a
prolonged heat wave. Low-level thickness values will increase
slightly on Saturday, compared with today, supporting an upward
temperature trend of a degree or two in combination with high-end
mugginess. Have recently issued an areawide Heat Advisory for
Saturday. Increased convection adds some uncertainty on Saturday,
so will let the midnight shift decide whether or not to carve out
a few counties for an Extreme Heat Warning, areally similar to
today.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through next Friday)
Issued at 244 PM EDT Fri Aug 14 2026

The main story will be the slow progression of the heat wave. The
heat will continue to actively build and increase through about
Tuesday, while the strong 500 mb subtropical ridge axis remains
anchored directly at our latitude. Forecast 850 mb temperatures
from Sunday through Wednesday are forecast to be near or in
excess of daily records in the SPC sounding climatology for TLH.
Part of what makes this heat wave so special is how muggy it is
will be. Surface dewpoints of 75 to 80 degrees contribute heavily
to heat index. Heat headlines will be a near certainty each day
through at least Wednesday, and Extreme Heat Warnings will likely
be needed for parts of the region. WPC Heat Risk peaks for us on
Tuesday, when most of the region is in the Extreme Heat Risk
category. With such muggy conditions, nighttime temperatures will
remain warm and offer no meaningful relief.

Late Wednesday into Thursday, models point to initial development
of a weakness in the subtropical ridge over the Southeast U.S., as
more climatologically normal high pressure nodes develop to our
east out near Bermuda and to our west over the Southwest US Four
Corners Region. By Friday, an actual upper trough may try digging
into the Southeast U.S., extending south from the Great Lakes. A
little cooling aloft would be the first step toward shaving the
edge off the worst of the heat late next week. Temperatures are
likely to still be above normal next Friday, but a 1-3 degree drop
in temperature and dewpoint respectively has an outsize effect on
heat index.

PM thunderstorms are in the forecast every day, given how moist
the air mass will be throughout the period. Earlier in the week
when high pressure is stronger, storms will be more confined to
the mesoscale-favored seabreeze zone.

Later in the week, we will need to watch for a day or two with
particularly strong storms. When heat waves start to break, we
commonly see a couple days with extreme levels of instability.
1000-700 mb layer flow will also start to increase as a weakness
in the subtropical ridge develops. Flow may increase even more if
that upper trough actually tries digging into the Southeast U.S..
Extreme instability plus any low-mid level flow, even as high as
15 knots, can really pack of punch in terms of thunderstorm wind
gusts.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 122 PM EDT Fri Aug 14 2026

Convection is beginning to develop across central AL/GA attm with
additional development in northeast FL. Additional development
will occur in the seabreeze zone of the FL panhandle and Big Bend
in the next 1-2 hours. Higher confidence of TS impacting
terminals of ABY/TLH/VLD where tempo groups were added from 19Z at
ABY and 20Z at TLH/VLD. Lower confidence and kept PROB30 TS at ECP
and DHN but will metwatch for amendments if needed. Convection
will continue into the early evening hours then decrease in
coverage. VFR outside of convection with tempo MVFR/IFR
underneath stronger convection. Winds will generally be from the
west, gusty around storms, then become light overnight.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 244 PM EDT Fri Aug 14 2026

High pressure over the Northeast Gulf this weekend will support
only light and gentle westerly breezes, with some nearshore
enhancement during the afternoon seabreeze. High pressure will
drift south toward the Southeast Gulf on Sunday night and Monday,
bringing an increase to gentle and moderate westerlies over the
Northeast Gulf.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 244 PM EDT Fri Aug 14 2026

For the next week, the air mass will be very hot and very
unstable. When combined with high levels of mugginess, heat index
values will support extreme heat risk for those working outdoors,
most of all during the first half of next week. Afternoon and
evening thunderstorms each day will produce erratic and gusty
downburst winds and brief torrential downpours. Storms on
Saturday will be particularly potent.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 244 PM EDT Fri Aug 14 2026

For the next week, torrential downpours beneath heavier
thunderstorms will bring short-lived nuisance flooding, mainly in
urbanized settings. Otherwise, no river flooding is expected for
the next week. Flash flooding is unlikely, remaining isolated at
most.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   77  96  76  96 /  20  60  20  40
Panama City   80  94  79  93 /  10  40  10  30
Dothan        76  95  75  95 /  20  50  10  30
Albany        76  96  75  96 /  20  40  10  20
Valdosta      75  96  75  96 /  20  70  10  30
Cross City    75  95  75  95 /  10  40  10  20
Apalachicola  79  92  79  92 /  10  30  10  30

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ this evening for
     FLZ007>011-019-028-029-034-108-128-134.

     Heat Advisory from 11 AM EDT /10 AM CDT/ to 7 PM EDT /6 PM CDT/
     Saturday for FLZ007>019-027>029-034-108-112-114-115-118-127-
     128-134-326-426.

     Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ this evening for
     FLZ012>018-027-112-114-115-118-127-326-426.

     High Rip Current Risk until 11 PM EDT /10 PM CDT/ this evening
     for FLZ114.

GA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for GAZ120>131-142>148-
     155>161.

     Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 7 PM EDT Saturday for GAZ120>131-
     142>148-155>161.

AL...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for ALZ065>069.

     Heat Advisory from 10 AM to 6 PM CDT Saturday for ALZ065>069.

GM...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...Haner
LONG TERM....Haner
AVIATION...Scholl
MARINE...Haner
FIRE WEATHER...Haner
HYDROLOGY...Haner

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