Severe Thunderstorm Warning 257, NWS Tallahassee, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
744 PM EDT Wed Jul 29 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 737 PM EDT Wed Jul 29 2026

- Hazardous heat potentially continues on Thursday, with forecast heat
  index values around 105-110. Stay hydrated, take frequent air-
  conditioned breaks, and know the signs of heat exhaustion and
  heat stroke. Seek immediate care if you experience heat-related
  illnesses.

- A potent round of strong to severe thunderstorms continues
  through this evening. There is a Slight Risk (Level 2 of 5)
  over the Florida Big Bend and Southwest Georgia. The primary
  threats will be damaging wind gusts, isolated flash flooding,
  large hail, and prolific lightning.

- On Thursday, there is a Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 5) of severe
  thunderstorms. Concerns will be strong and possibly damaging
  wind gusts. Isolated flash flooding is possible.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This Evening through Thursday)
Issued at 213 PM EDT Wed Jul 29 2026

An active severe weather pattern will develop this afternoon and
likely persist into the evening as a large upper level trough and
associated surface front drifts south. Showers and storms were
already beginning to develop around 130pm ET within a very unstable
airmass characterized by 3000 J/kg mixed-layer CAPE. These storms
were developing across our central Georgia counties just north of
Albany and Tifton. The airmass to the south of these storms will
continue to destabilize and with increasing upper level support as
the trough axis moves south we expect a fairly quick uptick in
convection through the remainder of the afternoon. Given the very
unstable airmass, drier air aloft, and a fairly deep mixed
environment, thunderstorms are likely to pack a large punch and
damaging straight line winds of 60 to 70 mph are possible in any
severe-warned storms. As the afternoon/evening goes on,
development will push south and we'll also begin to watch for
storm mergers increasing wind potential as well as coverage
increases. Convection will linger well into the evening hours and
possibly in the early morning hours of Thursday as activity drifts
south and severe potential wanes.

Another round of showers/storms is likely again on Thursday as the
influence of the upper level trough remains and a moist-unstable
airmass is in place. Given ample instability and well-mixed low-
levels another good microburst environment will be in place.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through next Tuesday)
Issued at 213 PM EDT Wed Jul 29 2026

A fairly active pattern will remain in place for much of the
upcoming weekend and into early next week as a progressive pattern
and several upper level troughs move through the deep south. These
troughs will likely keep multiple frontal boundaries in place
amongst a very deep tropical airmass characterized by 2.00+ inch
PWATS. What this means for us is likely a wet weekend and we could
potentially see localized heavy rain totals given the multi-day
rainfall pattern that will setup.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 737 PM EDT Wed Jul 29 2026

Showers and storms continue moving south with impacts to terminals
winding down for the evening. Some model guidance is showing the
potential for additional storms across the FL Panhandle within the
next few hours. Given the uncertainty, left the VCTS at ECP
through 03Z tonight. Some patchy fog and/or low stratus will be
possible overnight, especially where rain has fallen today. A few
SHRA are possible at ECP near sunrise Wednesday morning with a low
chance of TSRA. VFR conditions are expected at all terminals after
sunrise until another round of showers and storms develop across
the FL Panhandle/Big Bend, potentially impacting ECP/TLH/VLD.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 213 PM EDT Wed Jul 29 2026

The main concern this afternoon and evening is as a complex of
thunderstorms with gusty outflow boundaries that is expected to move
across the waters from the north. Keep an eye to the sky, heed any
Special Marine Warnings, and head to safe harbor if threatening
weather approaches. Moderate west/southwest winds around 15 knots
and seas of 2 to 3 feet will prevail today, before winds and seas
increase slightly into the weekend as a frontal boundary drops south
into the waters. In fact, fresh breezes are possible by Thursday
that could last into the weekend, along with high rain and
thunderstorm chances each day.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 213 PM EDT Wed Jul 29 2026

A wetter pattern is likely to develop through the end of the week
and into the weekend, keeping fire concerns limited as a frontal
system drops south. Probabilities for a wetting rain over the next 5
to 7 days remain very high. Main items to watch for will be gusty
and erratic winds near any thunderstorm activity. The only thing to
watch into the weekend will be where the frontal boundary stalls
out. If it stalls out further to the south, some low end fire
concerns could remain across our Alabama and Georgia counties.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 213 PM EDT Wed Jul 29 2026

A wetter pattern is in store through at least this weekend as a
front moving south through the region is expected to stall. WPC
has highlighted the region in a Marginal (level 1 of 4) risk for
Excessive Rainfall. The main concern is minor flooding of areas of
poor drainage, but isolated flash flooding cannot be ruled out
eventually. There are no riverine flooding concerns at this time,
but keep an eye out for updated forecasts in the event rainfall
amounts increase.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   76  94  74  92 /  50  80  50  70
Panama City   79  92  77  90 /  30  60  60  60
Dothan        75  93  73  93 /  70  50  50  50
Albany        74  95  73  94 /  50  30  30  20
Valdosta      75  96  73  95 /  50  60  50  50
Cross City    76  92  75  91 /  70  70  70  80
Apalachicola  79  90  78  88 /  50  60  60  80

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for FLZ007>009.

     Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ this evening for
     FLZ010>015-027>029-034-108-112-114-115-118-127-128-134-326-
     426.

     High Rip Current Risk until 5 AM EDT /4 AM CDT/ Thursday for
     FLZ112-114.

GA...None.
AL...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for ALZ065>069.

GM...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...Dobbs
LONG TERM....Dobbs
AVIATION...Oliver
MARINE...Dobbs
FIRE WEATHER...Dobbs
HYDROLOGY...Dobbs

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