Severe Thunderstorm Warning 157, NWS Tallahassee, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
145 PM EDT Sat Jun 20 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 132 PM EDT Sat Jun 20 2026

- Isolated flash flooding is possible today. The overall risk
  appears lower compared to the last couple days. If you encounter
  flooded roads, turn around don't drown.

- There is a High Risk of dangerous rip currents at all area
  beaches through this weekend. Heed the advice of beach flags and
  local officials.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and this evening)
Issued at 200 AM EDT Sat Jun 20 2026

Over the course of today and tonight, rainfall will ease back to
more normal summer levels.

For today, rainfall is still expected to be fairly robust in spots,
though we will not see the kind of extreme values that have been
observed in recent days. On one hand, the air mass will still be
very moist today, with Precipitable Water (PW) values in the 2.0
to 2.3 inch range. In addition, Friday evening's 500 mb upper air
plot showed a trough over the Arklatex region which will move east
this afternoon, adding some larger-scale lift and bringing modest
500 mb height falls to the region. On the other hand, the
frontal-like surface trough of recent days will lose definition
today and dissipate altogether by Sunday. That surface trough has
been a critical part of focusing heavy rain over the last 2 days.
So all in all, today will still exceed a normal summer day in
terms of convective coverage and rainfall amounts. Without an
absence of more extreme rain totals today, flash flooding will be
isolated at most and not enough to justify a new Flood Watch. WPC
is carrying a Slight Risk (Level 2 of 4) of Excessive Rainfall
through today.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tonight through Friday)
Issued at 200 AM EDT Sat Jun 20 2026

By this evening, that 500 mb trough will be weakening and starting
to exit off to the east. The climatological subtropical ridge axis
across the Bahamas and South Florida will sharpen and nose in more
strongly across the eastern Gulf. Some of the less moist mid-
level air over the Gulf will start to spread north across the
region. From Sunday onward, PW values will vary in the 1.6 to 2.0
inch range through next Friday, which the SPC sounding climatology
for TLH reveals to be in the 50th to 80th percentile range for
this week of the year. Those values will still readily support
deep moist convection, but building heights during the first half
of the week and the lack of larger-scale lift or triggers means we
will rely on more typical summer foci, namely the PM seabreeze
and AM landbreeze.

A modest increase in PoPs is expected Wednesday and Thursday, as the
tail end of a low-amplitude longwave trough brushes by to our north.

Throughout the week, the subtropical ridge axis will be to our
south, meaning southwest-westerly steering flow will prevail.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 132 PM EDT Sat Jun 20 2026

Isolated to scattered -TSRA commenced to developed this aftn just
east of KECP and west of KTLH. Expect additional development to
occur through this evening, resulting in a TEMPO/PROB30 mention of
TSRA and associated MVFR VIS at all TAF sites. Will of course
amend as necessary. Precipitation will gradually diminish a few
hours after sunset, and northwest winds will become light/variable
overnight. Model solutions hint at MVFR CIGS overnight at several
of the terminals, thus added a SCT mentioned where appropriate.
Slightly breezy west-northwest winds aoa 8-10 kts were noted at
most of the terminals this aftn.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 200 AM EDT Sat Jun 20 2026

Through Sunday, an Atlantic subtropical ridge axis will expand and
sharpen across the Florida Peninsula and across the eastern Gulf. It
will then remain in place for all of next week. To its north, gentle
southwest to west breezes will prevail offshore, while the nearshore
waters will also experience the seabreeze enhancement each
afternoon.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 200 AM EDT Sat Jun 20 2026

A very moist air mass will remain in place today, supporting a day
of numerous showers and thunderstorms, including pockets of heavy
rain. Storms will also come with gusty winds and dangerous
lightning. Thunderstorm coverage on Sunday will decrease to more
normal summertime coverage, with that level of coverage continuing
into the new work week. Otherwise, the air mass will be seasonably
hot, muggy and unstable for the next 7 days. Light southwest to
westerly breezes will prevail, with the coastal seabreeze
enhancement each afternoon

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 200 AM EDT Sat Jun 20 2026

Isolated flash flooding is possible today. Even so, the overall
threat will be lower today and during the last couple of days. WPC
is carrying a Slight Risk (Level 2 of 4) of Excessive Rainfall
today for our Alabama, Georgia, and Florida Panhandle counties.

The air mass today will still be very moist, and there is still
some larger-scale jet stream lift in play. However, the stalled
front over Alabama and Georgia in recent days is losing definition
and dissipating. This reduced focus will lessen the prospect of
getting extreme rainfall amounts, since it makes it harder to get
training or backbuilding thunderstorms. Still, the very moist air
mass will support torrential instantaneous rainfall rates, and
recent rains have lowered flash flood guidance values in spots.
The 00z HREF shows neighborhood probabilities of exceeding flash
flood guidance in the 5-20 percent range for most of the region...
lowest along the Panhandle coast.

From Sunday onward through the week ahead, flash flooding is
generally not expected. A typical scattering of summertime
afternoon storms will support short-lived nuisance runoff issues
beneath the core of stronger storms.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   73  90  74  93 /  20  70  10  20
Panama City   77  87  79  89 /  20  20   0  10
Dothan        72  87  74  91 /  20  50  10  20
Albany        71  89  74  91 /  20  40  10  30
Valdosta      72  90  74  93 /  40  30  10  10
Cross City    75  93  76  94 /  20  50   0   0
Apalachicola  78  88  80  89 /  10  20   0   0

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through late Sunday night for FLZ108-112-
     114.

     High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for FLZ115.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...Haner
LONG TERM....Haner
AVIATION...Bowser
MARINE...Haner
FIRE WEATHER...Haner
HYDROLOGY...Haner

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
134 PM EDT Sat Jun 20 2026

FLZ015>017-027-115-127-326-426-201830-
Inland Franklin FL-Gadsden FL-Southern Liberty FL-Coastal Wakulla FL-
Northern Liberty FL-Coastal Franklin FL-Inland Wakulla FL-Leon FL-
134 PM EDT Sat Jun 20 2026

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT WAKULLA...CENTRAL GADSDEN...
CENTRAL LIBERTY...SOUTHWESTERN LEON AND NORTHEASTERN FRANKLIN
COUNTIES THROUGH 230 PM EDT...

At 133 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a cluster of strong
thunderstorms along a line extending from 9 miles southwest of
Greensboro to 16 miles west of Crawfordville to 17 miles northeast of
Carrabelle. Movement was northeast at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Tallahassee, Woodville, Tallahassee State College, Florida State
University, Quincy, Havana, St. Marks, Midway, Crawfordville, Florida
A and M, Doak Campbell Stadium, Greensboro, Wakulla, Bristol,
Sopchoppy, Lake Bradford, Jewel Fire Tower, Wakulla Springs,
Florence, and South City.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 2984 8451 3018 8472 3044 8501 3044 8498
      3045 8500 3047 8499 3047 8500 3050 8499
      3065 8444 3039 8417 3020 8407 3010 8408
      3010 8403 2998 8397 3002 8404 3001 8422
      2990 8427
TIME...MOT...LOC 1733Z 246DEG 16KT 3048 8486 3023 8461 2995 8441

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

25-CAMP