Severe Thunderstorm Warning 129, NWS Tallahassee, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
334 PM EDT Tue Jun 16 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 316 PM EDT Tue Jun 16 2026

- A few strong to marginally severe thunderstorms are expected
  again today with localized pockets of damaging wind gusts
  impacting trees and power lines.

- Occasional rounds of heavy rainfall are likely through the end
  of the week, especially in Southeast Alabama and Southwest
  Georgia. Some localized flooding could occur with the heaviest
  rains.

- A High Risk of rip currents is forecast to continue through
  tonight for the west facing beaches of Gulf county. It is
  strongly discouraged to enter the surf on high risk days. Please
  heed the beach flags and advice of local officials.

&&

.SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM...
(This Evening through Monday)
Issued at 316 PM EDT Tue Jun 16 2026

Currently a broad longwave trough is funneling tropical moisture
into our area from the SW, keeping PWATs over 2 inches. Strong SW
flow aloft is also keeping 0-3km shear values elevated. That,
combined with decent CAPE values should lead to a good amount of
storm coverage today into tonight, with the possibility of some
of them being severe. The moist airmass will also lead to these
storms being rather efficient rainmakers, with rain rates
potentially bringing flooding concerns to areas under training or
repeated storm coverage.

The rest of the work week is expected to stay active as a low
pressure system passing over the Great Lakes region drags the trough
axis slightly eastward. This, combined with a weak tropical system
to the west will bring a more direct and enhanced southerly flow.
Models suggest decent CAPE and favorable shear leading to another
day of expanded coverage and heavy rain potential tomorrow.
Thereafter, the exact positioning and path of PTC One will
influence the flow and pattern through the extended period, with
Thursday having the potential for additional forcing, further
enhancing the severe storm and tornado potential.

Storm coverage is expected to relax a bit over the weekend as a
ridge of high pressure attempts to build in from the west. However,
a lingering frontal boundary may be enough to help initiate some
additional convection depending how the overall pattern sets up.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 141 PM EDT Tue Jun 16 2026

On and off showers and thunderstorms are expected to affect all
terminals thru the aftn into the evening with another round tmrw.
Used the latest HRRR & local CAMs guidance to update the timing
of -TSRA/TSRA via TEMPO groups on the front end and PROB30 on the
back end. A convective lull takes place tonight, though there may
be some lingering -SHRA. Otherwise, a mix of VFR-MVFR conds are
fcst with potential for IFR cigs late tonight into early tmrw
morning.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 316 PM EDT Tue Jun 16 2026

Moderate southwest breezes will prevail through Wednesday, becoming
fresh or possibly strong southerlies on Thursday and Friday as low
pressure passes to our north. Once low pressure has exited on
Saturday, a reduction to gentle westerlies is expected.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 316 PM EDT Tue Jun 16 2026

A very moist air mass will be in place through Friday, supporting
widespread shower and thunderstorm activity, thick cloud cover, and
wetting rains. Pockets of heavy rainfall are expected. Thunderstorms
will come with dangerous lightning and sudden gusty winds.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 316 PM EDT Tue Jun 16 2026

A quick 2-3 inches of precipitation can be expected beneath heavier
storms today. Where training or backbuilding occurs, isolated totals
of 3-5 inches are possible. Current flash flood guidance for areas
that received recent heavy rain shows that it would take about 3
inches of rain in a 3 hour period to result in flash flooding, or 4
inches of rain in a 6 hour period. The 00z HREF shows low chances
(10-15 percent) of exceeding flash flood guidance across portions of
southeast Alabama and southwest Georgia. While the chance looks too
low to issue a flood watch right now, trends will continue to be
monitored as we head through the week and conditions become more
saturated.

Rivers remain on the low side from the ongoing drought conditions,
so significant riverine flooding is currently not expected.

Thursday and Friday have heavy rain potential as well, especially
west and northwest of the Apalachicola and Flint. If that occurs, it
may be easier to achieve flash flooding after today's rainfall.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   73  86  77  89 /  80  70  30  70
Panama City   75  86  79  87 /  80  50  60  80
Dothan        70  83  75  85 /  70  90  50  90
Albany        70  83  74  87 /  80  90  30  80
Valdosta      71  85  76  90 /  80  90  20  60
Cross City    75  90  78  92 /  60  30  20  40
Apalachicola  78  87  81  87 /  60  30  30  60

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for FLZ114.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...Humphreys
LONG TERM....Humphreys
AVIATION...IG3
MARINE...Humphreys
FIRE WEATHER...Humphreys
HYDROLOGY...Humphreys

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
331 PM EDT Tue Jun 16 2026

FLZ007-008-010-012>014-108-112-114-326-426-162015-
Coastal Bay FL-Central Walton FL-Southern Liberty FL-Inland Bay FL-
Calhoun FL-Northern Liberty FL-Inland Gulf FL-South Walton FL-
North Walton FL-Washington FL-Coastal Gulf FL-
331 PM EDT Tue Jun 16 2026

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT NORTHWESTERN GULF...BAY...
SOUTHWESTERN CALHOUN AND SOUTHERN WALTON COUNTIES IN THE PANHANDLE OF
FLORIDA...WEST CENTRAL LIBERTY COUNTY IN BIG BEND FLORIDA AND
SOUTHERN WASHINGTON COUNTIES IN THE PANHANDLE OF FLORIDA THROUGH 415
PM EDT/315 PM CDT/...

At 331 PM EDT/231 PM CDT/, Doppler radar was tracking strong
thunderstorms along a line extending from near Santa Rosa Beach to
near Panama City to near Mexico Beach. Movement was northeast at 35
mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Panama City, Lynn Haven, Panama City Beach, Callaway, Santa Rosa
Beach, Springfield, Mexico Beach, Hiland Park, Eglin Air Force Base,
Stonemill Creek, Tyndall Air Force Base, Orange, Live Oak, Parker,
Wewahitchka, Freeport, Ebro, Honeyville, Villa Tasso, and Allanton.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3038 8633 3042 8631 3039 8626 3040 8623
      3042 8627 3039 8611 3044 8616 3047 8613
      3046 8619 3050 8620 3046 8639 3075 8639
      3046 8542 3019 8493 2984 8547 2989 8550
      3009 8580 3022 8605 3032 8639 3040 8639
TIME...MOT...LOC 1931Z 226DEG 30KT 3036 8632 3014 8576 2989 8537

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

73-YOUNG