Severe Thunderstorm Warning 109, NWS Tallahassee, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
646 PM EDT Mon Jun 1 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 637 PM EDT Mon Jun 1 2026

- A complex of severe thunderstorms over northern Alabama may
  weaken before reaching our northern counties tonight.

- A cold front will bring a threat for severe storms and excessive
  rainfall tomorrow with high coverage of showers and
  thunderstorms.

- Mostly dry and "cooler" weather is expected following frontal
  passage mid week.

- A high risk of rip currents continues at the FL Panhandle
  beaches through Tuesday evening. Chances for advisory level
  boating conditions has increased for Wednesday and Thursday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This Evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 402 PM EDT Mon Jun 1 2026

Isolated showers and storms will continue to develop along a
stalled frontal boundary where convergence will be enhanced by
the sea breeze. A complex of severe thunderstorms over northern
Alabama will move into an unstable environment over central AL as
indicated by an 18Z KBMX sounding. It is certainly possible that
storms will still be strong to severe as the system will makes
it's way into the TAE area by evening.

A stronger front will approach the region from the north tomorrow.
This front, combined with any outflow boundary from the MCS will
provide plenty of lift within the in situ moist unstable airmass
in place across the region. MU CAPE around 2000 J/kg and
sufficient deep-layer shear could produce marginally severe storms
with both a wind and hail threat. Both SPC and WPC have the area
under a marginal risk for severe storms and excessive rainfall
respectively.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through next Sunday)
Issued at 402 PM EDT Mon Jun 1 2026

The front will sweep south of the area by Wednesday providing a
rare June respite from the hot and humid conditions we normally
expect this month for the middle to later part of the week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 637 PM EDT Mon Jun 1 2026

A line of TSRA will be moving in from the NW at TAF issuance,
impacting KDHN and KABY first. These storms have been severe and
will likely produce significant gusts and reduced visibilities at
these terminals. It is unclear how well this line will hold
together at this moment, but there will be possible impacts later
at the remaining terminals as the line moves southward. Otherwise,
a cluster of storms becoming severe is also currently near ECP.
Eventually conditions will improve tonight, with another active
round expected near most terminals tomorrow afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 402 PM EDT Mon Jun 1 2026

Gentle to moderate westerly breezes prevail through Tuesday
evening. Chances for advisory level conditions have increased mid
to late this week following frontal passage when winds increase
out of the east. High chances for showers and thunderstorms will
precede Wednesday's frontal passage with lingering convection
across the offshore waters on Thursday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 402 PM EDT Mon Jun 1 2026

A moist airmass and high rain chances should keep fire concerns
minimal through Tuesday. Scattered to numerous thunderstorms will
pose a frequent lightning, and gusty/erratic wind threat on Tuesday.
Wetting rains are possible are also expected tomorrow when a
reinforcing cold front moves from north to south. Drier air will
arrive following frontal passage for the mid to late week.

High afternoon dispersion indices are forecast over parts of the FL
Big Bend and panhandle Wednesday afternoon and will increase later
in the week.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 402 PM EDT Mon Jun 1 2026

Numerous showers and storms are expected again on Tuesday across the
area, which may produce locally heavy rainfall. Widespread rainfall
totals over the next 2 days will be around 0.5-1.5 inches. But
localized high-end totals (10% chance of exceedance) of 3-5 inches
are possible, which could be enough to cause flash flooding. Flash
flood guidance across the area is 2.5-3.5 inches in 1 hour or about
3 to 4.5 inches in 3 hours.

On the riverine front, both the Shoal and the lower Choctawhatchee
Rivers are in action stage and are cresting. Outside of the Shoal
and lower Choctawhatchee, no other rivers are forecast to reach
action stage over the next 7 days with chances from ensemble members
being less than 30%.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   91  73  92  66 /  10   0  50  80
Panama City   89  76  89  68 /  30  10  40  70
Dothan        90  71  88  64 /  10  30  60  60
Albany        88  70  87  61 /   0  20  70  60
Valdosta      88  70  89  63 /   0  10  50  80
Cross City    92  75  93  68 /  50  10  50  80
Apalachicola  88  77  88  71 /  20  30  20  70

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through late Tuesday night for FLZ108-112-
     114.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...High Rip Current Risk through late Tuesday night for GMZ735.

&&

SHORT TERM...Wool
LONG TERM....Wool
AVIATION...Humphreys
MARINE...Wool
FIRE WEATHER...Wool
HYDROLOGY...Young

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Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
326 PM EDT Mon Jun 1 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0254 PM     Marine Tstm Wind Apalachicola            29.73N 84.98W
06/01/2026  M41 MPH          Franklin           FL   Mesonet

            APCF1 in Apalachicola recorded a wind gust
            of 41 mph at 2:54 PM EDT.

&&

DR

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
404 PM EDT Mon Jun 1 2026

FLZ012>015-114-326-426-012100-
Inland Franklin FL-Southern Liberty FL-Inland Bay FL-Calhoun FL-
Northern Liberty FL-Inland Gulf FL-Coastal Gulf FL-
404 PM EDT Mon Jun 1 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT GULF...EAST CENTRAL BAY AND
SOUTHWESTERN CALHOUN COUNTIES IN THE PANHANDLE OF FLORIDA...
SOUTHWESTERN LIBERTY AND NORTHWESTERN FRANKLIN COUNTIES IN BIG BEND
FLORIDA THROUGH 500 PM EDT/400 PM CDT/...

At 404 PM EDT/304 PM CDT/, Doppler radar was tracking a strong
thunderstorm 8 miles south of Wewahitchka, or 15 miles northeast of
Port St. Joe, moving southeast at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Stonemill Creek, White City, Orange, Wewahitchka, Honeyville, Buck
Siding, Chipola Cutoff, Beverly, Red Hill, Kern, Lewis, Sumatra,
Howard Creek, Willis Landing, Chipola Park, Dalkeith, and Fort
Gadsden.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 2974 8523 3006 8539 3010 8539 3011 8542
      3020 8546 3028 8505 2988 8488
TIME...MOT...LOC 2004Z 331DEG 15KT 3000 8514

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

58-REESE

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
520 PM CDT Mon Jun 1 2026

FLZ008-010-012-108-012300-
Central Walton FL-Inland Bay FL-South Walton FL-Washington FL-
520 PM CDT Mon Jun 1 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHWESTERN BAY...SOUTHEASTERN
WALTON AND CENTRAL WASHINGTON COUNTIES THROUGH 600 PM CDT...

At 520 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 17
miles southeast of De Funiak Springs. The strong thunderstorm is
nearly stationary.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Vernon, De Funiak Springs, Eglin Air Force Base, Live Oak, Freeport,
Ebro, Hinsons Crossroads, Red Bay, Douglass Crossroad, Rock Hill,
Bruce, Red Head, Eucheeanna, Holmes Valley, Millers Ferry, Knox Hill,
Smyrna, Spring Hollow, and Sylvania.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3070 8613 3067 8559 3038 8573 3047 8614
      3048 8613 3048 8619
TIME...MOT...LOC 2220Z 011DEG 3KT 3051 8599

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

58-REESE

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
650 PM EDT Mon Jun 1 2026

FLZ012-108-112-012345-
Coastal Bay FL-Inland Bay FL-South Walton FL-
650 PM EDT Mon Jun 1 2026

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT WEST CENTRAL BAY AND SOUTHWESTERN
WALTON COUNTIES THROUGH 745 PM EDT/645 PM CDT/...

At 650 PM EDT/550 PM CDT/, Doppler radar was tracking strong
thunderstorms along a line extending from 6 miles northeast of Destin
to 12 miles northwest of Lynn Haven. Movement was south at 10 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Panama City Beach, Santa Rosa Beach, Inlet Beach, Seminole Hills,
Gulf Resort Beach, Blue Mountain Beach, Seaside, Miramar Beach, Point
Washington, Pine Log, Sunnyside, Gulf Pines, Laird, Laguna Beach,
Grayton Beach, Hollywood Beach, Seagrove Beach, Sandestin, and Four
Mile Village.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3038 8633 3042 8631 3040 8630 3039 8626
      3040 8623 3042 8627 3041 8621 3038 8616
      3038 8612 3037 8606 3040 8601 3039 8598
      3041 8596 3041 8573 3030 8587 3013 8589
      3013 8591 3022 8605 3031 8639 3040 8640
TIME...MOT...LOC 2250Z 008DEG 10KT 3044 8641 3040 8573

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

58-REESE