Severe Thunderstorm Warning 102, NWS Tallahassee, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
349 PM EDT Sun May 24 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 328 PM EDT Sun May 24 2026

- A HIGH RISK of rip currents at area beaches through Memorial
  Day weekend. Beachgoers are urged to consult lifeguards on surf
  conditions and discouraged to enter the surf if red or double
  red flags are flying.

- Numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected each day through
  the next week. Gusty winds of 40-60 mph, torrential downpours,
  and frequent lightning will be the primary threats from storms.
  Some localized flash flooding is also possible each day under
  slow-moving thunderstorms.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This Evening through Monday)
Issued at 328 PM EDT Sun May 24 2026

Persistent southeasterly to southerly flow will remain in place
through Monday. A slight enhancement to the southerly flow at
around 15 mph resulted in storms moving in quickly and now
progressing through Southeast Alabama and Southwest Georgia. With
strong heating ahead of much of the convection, expect some storms
to become strong to briefly severe with damaging winds up to 60
mph the main concern. Storms should tend to reach our
northeasternmost counties late this evening with any remaining
convection elsewhere dissipating shortly after midnight.

With a similar pattern on Monday, there is increasing concern to
an early start to storms along the Florida Panhandle Coast.
Several hi-res guidance members, including the 18z HRRR show
moderate SE low level flow converging with remnant outflow from a
decaying MCS from the Central Gulf. This would tend to support
initiation of convection over our marine waters around 06z Mon and
then spreading toward the Panhandle coast before 10z Mon. Given
the good agreement with the models, showed increasing PoPs through
the pre-dawn hours and into the mid morning across the Florida
Panhandle and into SE Alabama. It is likely that these storms
could produce locally heavy rainfall given the overall steering
flow before 18z is relatively weak. Further to the east, assuming
limited morning cloud cover, robust heating should lead to an
active day across much of South Georgia and the Florida Big Bend.
Overall, this Monday looks to be one of our higher PoP days in a
while with much of the area in the 80 to 90 percent range. Some
storms in the afternoon hours, in addition to producing heavy
rainfall, will have a gusty wind threat as well. All the
convection is likely to keep temperatures cooler in the west,
generally in the mid 80s and a little warmer toward I-75 with
temperatures in the upper 80s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through next Saturday)
Issued at 328 PM EDT Sun May 24 2026

The pattern really isn't changing much through the upcoming week
in the longer term guidance through Saturday. Even though there
are subtle differences between the 24/12z GFS and Euro, the
overall consensus is that generally southerly flow will remain in
place, creating a moist environment favorable for above normal
storm coverage each afternoon and evening. Though the Euro
suggests there may be a brief reprieve on Wed-Thu as the
subtropical ridge nudges into the Eastern Florida Peninsula,
nearby troughing should keep the western portion of the forecast
area convectively active enough to support the above normal PoP
forecast. By Friday, this ridging retreats and an approaching
trough leads to greater rain chances. Of course, with generally
stormy conditions, it will be challenging for temperatures to get
much above the upper 80s for highs through the period, though some
low 90s are possible on Wed-Thurs.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 328 PM EDT Sun May 24 2026

Showers and storms are once again starting to pop up across the
region. MVFR to IFR conditions are possible under any downpours,
storms will wind down shortly after sunset with VFR prevailing by
late this evening.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 328 PM EDT Sun May 24 2026

Gentle to moderate south and southeasterly winds will continue
for the next several days with seas around 2 to 3 feet. Daily
chances for showers and storms continue, especially during the
overnight and early morning hours.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 328 PM EDT Sun May 24 2026

Generally southerly transport winds of 10 to 15 mph are expected
over the next several days. This will yield good dispersions.
Scattered showers and storms will be possible near the coast in
the mornings, then moving inland and increasing in coverage and
intensity during the afternoons. Thunderstorms will be capable of
producing gusty, erratic winds, frequent lightning, and heavy
rain.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 328 PM EDT Sun May 24 2026

Unlike yesterday, storm motions are fairly progressive at 10-15
mph, so rainfall amounts are not likely to produce flash flooding
unless storms train over the same location. Even so, 3-5 inches of
rain in a relatively short period of time would be necessary to
induce any flash flooding across the region with the recent near
term wet pattern. This may become more of a concern on Monday and
into Tuesday as PoPs remain elevated and storm coverage is
greatest.

Even with the locally heavy rainfall, rivers are unlikely to
respond significantly, so the only concern is for localized flash
flooding.

As for the ongoing drought, this rain will reduce the magnitude of
the drought. However, this rainfall is not a drought buster.
Significantly more rain is needed to bring the region out of an 8
month drought.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   72  85  71  87 /  40  80  10  70
Panama City   74  84  74  85 /  50  80  50  60
Dothan        69  81  69  83 /  60  90  40  90
Albany        68  83  68  85 /  60  90  40  90
Valdosta      69  86  69  88 /  60  80  30  70
Cross City    71  90  71  92 /  30  60  10  40
Apalachicola  76  83  76  84 /  50  80  30  60

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk until 1 AM EDT /midnight CDT/ Monday for
     FLZ108-112-114-115.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

SHORT TERM...Godsey
LONG TERM....Godsey
AVIATION...Oliver
MARINE...Godsey
FIRE WEATHER...Godsey
HYDROLOGY...Godsey

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