Freeze Warning 5, NWS Tallahassee, FL

Coffee County, AL, Dale County, AL, Geneva County, AL, Henry County, AL, Houston County, AL, Bay County, FL, Calhoun County, FL, Dixie County, FL, Franklin County, FL, Gadsden County, FL, Gulf County, FL, Holmes County, FL, Jackson County, FL, Jefferson County, FL, Lafayette County, FL, Leon County, FL, Liberty County, FL, Madison County, FL, Taylor County, FL, Wakulla County, FL, Walton County, FL, Washington County, FL, Baker County, GA, Ben Hill County, GA, Berrien County, GA, Brooks County, GA, Calhoun County, GA, Clay County, GA, Colquitt County, GA, Cook County, GA, Decatur County, GA, Dougherty County, GA, Early County, GA, Grady County, GA, Irwin County, GA, Lanier County, GA, Lee County, GA, Lowndes County, GA, Miller County, GA, Mitchell County, GA, Quitman County, GA, Randolph County, GA, Seminole County, GA, Terrell County, GA, Thomas County, GA, Tift County, GA, Turner County, GA, Worth County, GA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
1200 PM EST Fri Jan 30 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1200 PM EST Fri Jan 30 2026

- Cold Weather Advisories in effect for SE AL, SW GA, and FL
  Panhandle on Saturday.

- Extreme Cold Watch for entire region starting Saturday afternoon.

- Intense Arctic blast arrives by Saturday with dangerously cold
  temperatures and wind chills. There is a high probability
  (70-90%) of wind chills in the single digits in our Alabama and
  Georgia counties.

- Gale Warning for marine zones west of Apalachicola in effect
  from early Saturday morning through Sunday morning, including
  St. Andrews Bay. Marine wind gusts up to 45 kts and high seas
  will lead to very dangerous conditions. There is also a high
  chance of widespread 30 to 40 mph gusts across land areas which
  could cause sporadic power outages. A Wind Advisory for the
  Emerald Coast is in effect beginning early Saturday morning.

- Given cold temperatures, action to protect vulnerable pipes,
  pets, plants, needs to be completed by Friday evening.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 847 AM EST Fri Jan 30 2026

Radar showed some light returns this morning with the bulk of the
precipitation just offshore.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 149 AM EST Fri Jan 30 2026

This morning, temps will be in the low to mid 30s, and near 40
along the Emerald Coast. We can expect to mildly warm up today as
we are still on a warming trend. Highs this afternoon will be in
the upper 50s in our AL and GA counties, and low 60s for the
Panhandle and Big Bend. There is a slight chance for isolated to
scattered showers this afternoon ahead of a strong cold front that
is expected to approach the region later this evening. Winds
today will be light and becoming northwesterly late this afternoon
into the evening as the cold front begins its passage. Once the
cold front arrives, temperatures will begin to fall rapidly Friday
might. The low temperatures for tonight are forecast to range
from the mid-upper 20s in SE Alabama and SW Georgia, and the low
to mid 30s in the FL Pandhandle and Big Bend. The SE Big Bend will
be in the upper 30s. However, with the increasing winds Friday
night, apparent (feels- like) temperatures will range from the low
teens to the upper 20s across the region by early Saturday
morning. A Cold Weather Advisory is in place for Saturday morning
where apparent temps are forecast to be at 25 degrees or below.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 149 AM EST Fri Jan 30 2026

By daybreak on Saturday, the cold front would have passed through
the region and a strong surface high will build behind it over
the Central Plains. With this surface high, bitterly cold Arctic
air will advect into our region as the pressure gradient will be
tightened between this high and the surface low that will be
strengthening over the western Atlantic. Brisk northwesterly winds
are expected through the day Saturday with sustained winds of
20-25 mph and gusts up to 35-40 mph. A Wind Advisory is in effect
for the Emerald Coast Saturday. An expansion of the advisory is
likely with about a 40%-50% chance of gusts above 35 mph for areas
west of the Flint and Apalachicola rivers.

The main concern for this period will be the dangerously cold
temperatures during the night and lingering through into the
afternoon hours.

Temperatures during the day Saturday will start in the low 30s
for much of the region and low to mid 40s for the SE Big Bend. Due
to the strong winds during the day, wind chills will feel to be
in the 20s and upper teens throughout the day; except for the SE
Big Bend, which will feel like the upper 30s. A Cold Weather
Advisory is in effect through the day Saturday to account for the
cold wind chills through the day.

The surface low that brought the cold front will be off the coast
of the Carolinas. Wrap-around moisture from the surface low may
bring a chance for light winter precip over our northeastern zones
in Georgia during the day Saturday. It is possible that there may
be a dusting of snow on grassy surfaces in places north and east
of a Tifton to Ashburn line.

Once the sun goes down Saturday evening, temperatures will begin
crashing into the upper teens, and wind chills in the single
digits. There is about a 20%-30% chance for temperatures to fall
below 20 degrees in the FL Panhandle Saturday night, and above 70%
chance in SE Alabama. These will be the coldest temperatures of
the season (so far) with potentially record breaking lows upon us.
This cold will rival similar cold snaps observed in late December
2022, early January 2012, mid January 2011, and early January
2010. The record low for Tallahassee on Sunday, February 1, is
20°F, which was last set in 1977.

Because many locations, especially across the northwest portions
of our forecast area, will see 12 to 15 hours of hard-freeze
conditions, those with outdoor plumbing, plants, and pets could be
severely impacted. Actions to protect these entities should be
completed by Friday night and Saturday morning.

An Extreme Cold Watch is in place following the Cold Weather
Advisory Saturday evening through Sunday afternoon when apparent
temperatures are expected to rise above criteria (25 degrees).
Winds through the day on Sunday will not be as gusty, however it
may still be breezy with gusts up to 20-25 mph Sunday afternoon.
Sunday night will have calmer winds which will reduce the affect
of wind chills, however a hard freeze is again expected.

Through the week, the surface high will meander east towards the
Atlantic, allowing for a slow warm-up for the overnight hours with
lows in the low 20s for Monday morning, rising to around 40
degrees by Wednesday morning. Afternoon highs will warm from the
low 50s Monday to the low to mid-60s by Wednesday. Chances for
rain this upcoming week are nil through at least mid-week. Another
frontal system looks to develop by midweek and track across the
southeast which could bring our next chance for showers and
thunderstorms (50- 60% PoPs), as well as bring temperatures back
down to the 30s for morning lows.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1200 PM EST Fri Jan 30 2026

A low probability of brief MVFR with VCSH at TLH/VLD today, otherwise
VFR for the remainder of the terminals today. A strong arctic cold
frontal passage late tonight will usher in northwest winds with gusts
of 20-25 knots. Low clouds should make it into DHN late tonight as
well w/MVFR cigs; cannot rule this out at ABY as well but probability
is low, so just showing some SCT cigs.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 847 AM EST Fri Jan 30 2026

Mostly light to gentle breezes are expected through the day today
before a strong cold front shifts the winds late this evening.
Behind the front, winds will abruptly become northerly with a high
chance for sustained gale force winds with gusts up to 45kts on
Saturday. A Gale Warning for the marine zones west of Apalachicola
is in effect from late tonight through Sunday morning. The Small
Craft Advisory for Saint Andrews Bay has been upgraded to a Gale
Warning.. This may be upgraded to Gale in further forecast
updates. There will be strong offshore winds over Apalachee Bay
Saturday into Sunday which may lead to impactful low tides. This
could result in navigational issues. Winds and seas should begin
to fall below advisory levels by Sunday night.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 149 AM EST Fri Jan 30 2026

Transport winds through the day Friday will be light and
variable, leading to very low dispersions for much of the area.
Isolated to scattered light showers are possible for districts
along and south of I-10 Friday afternoon. Winds significantly
increase for Saturday following a strong cold front. Surface winds
will be around 25-30 mph with gusts up to 30-40 mph. Dispersions
will be very high with values above 100 units and elevated mixing
heights above 6000 feet. MinRH values on Saturday will range from
about 30-40 percent. All this leads to elevated fire weather
concerns for Saturday. Sunday, the winds will have come down a
little, but high dispersions, and critically low RHs remain. Fire
weather concerns will likely linger into Sunday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 149 AM EST Fri Jan 30 2026

Only light showers are forecast with very little overall rain
expected for the next several days. There are no flooding
concerns. There will be strong offshore winds over Apalachee Bay
Saturday into Sunday which may lead to impactful low tides. This
could result in navigational issues.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   56  34  42  21 /  20   0   0   0
Panama City   60  33  41  23 /  10   0   0   0
Dothan        57  29  36  19 /  10   0   0   0
Albany        54  31  39  19 /  10   0   0   0
Valdosta      58  34  44  19 /  10   0   0   0
Cross City    61  39  52  20 /   0  10  10   0
Apalachicola  58  36  43  23 /  20   0  10   0

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Cold Weather Advisory from 4 AM EST /3 AM CST/ to 1 PM EST /noon
     CST/ Saturday for FLZ007>013-016-108-112-326.

     Extreme Cold Watch from Saturday afternoon through Sunday
     afternoon for FLZ007>019-027>029-034-108-112-114-115-118-
     127-128-134-326-426.

     Wind Advisory from 1 AM EST /midnight CST/ Saturday to 10 AM EST
     /9 AM CST/ Sunday for FLZ108-112-114.

     High Rip Current Risk from Saturday morning through Sunday
     afternoon for FLZ108-112-114-115.

GA...Cold Weather Advisory from 4 AM to 1 PM EST Saturday for
     GAZ120>124-142.

     Extreme Cold Watch from Saturday afternoon through Sunday
     afternoon for GAZ120>131-142>148-155>161.

AL...Cold Weather Advisory from 3 AM to noon CST Saturday for
     ALZ065>069.

     Extreme Cold Watch from Saturday afternoon through Sunday
     morning for ALZ065>069.

GM...Gale Watch from Saturday morning through Sunday morning for
     GMZ730-755-765-775.

     Gale Warning from midnight tonight to 9 AM CST Sunday for GMZ735-
     751-752-770-772.

&&

SHORT TERM...Montgomery
LONG TERM....Montgomery
AVIATION...LF
MARINE...Montgomery
FIRE WEATHER...Montgomery
HYDROLOGY...Montgomery