Flash Flood Warning 16, NWS Tallahassee, FL

203 
WGUS72 KTAE 021748
FFSTAE

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
148 PM EDT Sun Aug 2 2026

FLC005-013-045-077-133-021758-
/O.CAN.KTAE.FF.W.0016.000000T0000Z-260802T1815Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Bay FL-Calhoun FL-Gulf FL-Liberty FL-Washington FL-
148 PM EDT Sun Aug 2 2026 /1248 PM CDT Sun Aug 2 2026/

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR WEST CENTRAL LIBERTY, NORTHEASTERN BAY, 
SOUTHWESTERN CALHOUN, NORTH CENTRAL GULF AND SOUTHEASTERN WASHINGTON 
COUNTIES HAS BEEN REPLACED WITH A FLOOD WARNING...

While the threat for Flash Flooding has ended. Ongoing flooding will 
likely remain for several hours due to heavy rains from this morning 
and this afternoon.

&&

LAT...LON 3044 8558 3049 8551 3053 8544 3051 8535
      3037 8521 3022 8503 3012 8508 3008 8532
      3009 8552 3028 8560

$$

WD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
933 AM EDT Sun Aug 2 2026

...New UPDATE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 931 AM EDT Sun Aug 2 2026

- A Flood Watch is in effect for the eastern Florida Panhandle and
  Florida Big Bend through Monday afternoon. An additional 2 to 4
  inches of rain is expected in the watch area with localized
  additional totals of 5 to 8 inches possible.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 931 AM EDT Sun Aug 2 2026

No updates to the forecast this morning. Widespread showers and
thunderstorms are ongoing across the Florida Panhandle and are
moving east. Heavy rain and potential for training convection
remain concerns this afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Monday night)
Issued at 228 AM EDT Sun Aug 2 2026

Another day of widespread showers and thunderstorms. The upper
level trough will continue its southward progression,
strengthening the gradient of southwesterly winds pulling in
moisture from the Gulf. Today's rain could be more than yesterday
for the Florida Panhandle and Big Bend. Storms today are expected
to develop similarly by beginning over our western Gulf waters and
along the coast, gradually moving inland through the morning and
afternoon; then, spreading eastward to the Big Bend region.
Outside of the watch area, about 0.5-2" of rainfall will be
possible through Monday. 2-4 inches will be possible within the
Flood Watch area with localized higher amounts of up to 5-8 inches
will be possible. WPC has our Florida counties in a Slight (level
2 of 4) risk for Excessive rainfall today, with our GA and AL
counties in a Marginal (level 1 of 4) risk. More info in the
Hydrology section.

Temperatures will be mild with highs in the mid to upper 80s and
overnight lows in the low 70s. Expect it to be muggy as well with
all the rain.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 228 AM EDT Sun Aug 2 2026

Some lingering showers and thunderstorms can be expected on
Tuesday with PoPs ranging from 30-60 percent for the day, as the
upper level low lifts north and drifts further east. Then for the
rest of the week, we dry out to a more typical summertime pattern
with 30-40% chance of afternoon showers and thunderstorms.
Temperatures warm up again to the mid 90s with heat indices around
100-105 degrees from mid-week through the weekend. Overnight lows
will also be in the low- mid 70s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 623 AM EDT Sun Aug 2 2026

Convection is developing through the Gulf and inland with
additional development through the morning hours. Start the TAFs
with SHRA and VCTS into the afternoon hours. HRRR has a majority
of the convection going then tapering off from west to east this
afternoon and evening. Seems to be another lull this evening
before redevelopment late Sunday night ECP/TLH/VLD while drier
air starts to work into DHN/ABY. Expect bouts of MVFR cig/vsbys to
accompany stronger storms while winds will generally be from the
southwest; gusty in and around thunderstorms.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 228 AM EDT Sun Aug 2 2026

Showers and thunderstorms will remain possible for the next few
days, mainly during the overnight and morning hours. Threats
include gusty winds and possible waterspouts, along with frequent
lightning. During the day today, Advisory level conditions can be
expected with winds around 20 kts, with seas of 3-6 feet. Winds
will begin to relax Sunday night through Monday with SCEC
conditions. Gentle southwesterly breezes return by Tuesday with a
southeasterly shift later in the week.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 228 AM EDT Sun Aug 2 2026

Widespread wetting rains through Monday will keep fire weather
concerns at a minimum. Transport winds will remain out of the west
to southwest around 10-20 mph through tonight, then lessening to
5- 10 mph by Tuesday.

Moderate to high dispersions are possible for the inland
districts of the FL Big Bend and along the I-75 corridor in
Georgia for Tuesday afternoon with mixing heights ranging from
4000- 6000 feet. PoPs for Tuesday range from 30-60 percent as
there will be a few lingering showers/thunderstorms from this
weekend's system with the highest PoPs in the FL Big Bend region.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 228 AM EDT Sun Aug 2 2026

Widespread showers and thunderstorms have already produced 3-6
inches of rainfall across many locations on Saturday. Additional
rainfall amounts of 2-4 inches remain possible with localized
higher amounts of 5-8 inches through Monday, particularly in the
FL Big Bend. The Flood Watch was expanded to include the entirety
of the FL Big Bend as several inches have fallen with more
expected for today. An expansion into southern Georgia may be
needed today if a band of heavy rain moves into the area. WPC has
our Florida counties in a Slight (level 2 of 4) risk for Excessive
rainfall today, with our GA and AL counties in a Marginal (level
1 of 4) risk. The extreme SE Big Bend was mentioned in WPC's
discussion that there is a medium (30- 50%) chance of an
additional 5" (through Monday) due to backbuilding cells and high
rain rates.

We continue to watch the rivers in the coastal Big Bend for the
potential of rises. This includes rivers such as the Sopchoppy,
St. Marks, Econfina, Fenholloway, and Steinhatchee. However, most
of our larger river systems should remain below flood stage.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is requested. Spotters should safely report
significant weather conditions and/or damage by calling the
office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   86  74  89  73 /  90  60  70  10
Panama City   87  77  89  77 /  90  70  30  10
Dothan        89  72  90  72 /  90  50  20  10
Albany        89  73  90  72 /  90  50  50  10
Valdosta      90  73  89  72 /  90  70  80  30
Cross City    86  74  88  73 /  90  80 100  70
Apalachicola  86  77  87  77 /  90  70  80  20

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Flood Watch through Monday afternoon for FLZ012>019-027>029-034-
     112-114-115-118-127-128-134-326-426.

     High Rip Current Risk through Monday morning for FLZ108-112-114-
     115.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT /10 PM CDT/ this evening
     for GMZ730-751-752-755-765-770-772-775.

&&

SHORT TERM...Montgomery
LONG TERM....Montgomery
AVIATION...Scholl
MARINE...Montgomery
FIRE WEATHER...Montgomery
HYDROLOGY...Montgomery

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
1007 AM EDT Sun Aug 2 2026

FLZ010>013-016-326-GAZ155-156-021500-
Gadsden FL-Inland Bay FL-Calhoun FL-Northern Liberty FL-Jackson FL-
Washington FL-Decatur GA-Seminole GA-
1007 AM EDT Sun Aug 2 2026

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT JACKSON...NORTHEASTERN BAY AND
NORTHERN CALHOUN COUNTIES IN THE PANHANDLE OF FLORIDA...NORTHWESTERN
GADSDEN AND NORTHERN LIBERTY COUNTIES IN BIG BEND FLORIDA...
NORTHEASTERN WASHINGTON COUNTY IN THE PANHANDLE OF FLORIDA...WESTERN
DECATUR AND SEMINOLE COUNTIES IN SOUTHWESTERN GEORGIA THROUGH 1100 AM
EDT/1000 AM CDT/...

At 1007 AM EDT/907 AM CDT/, Doppler radar was tracking strong
thunderstorms along a line extending from 6 miles east of Vernon to 6
miles east of Marianna. Movement was east at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Chipley, Bainbridge, Marianna, West Bainbridge, Chattahoochee,
Bradford, Malone, Sneads, Gretna, Cottondale, Grand Ridge, Greenwood,
Altha, Alford, Wausau, Iron City, Brinson, Bascom, Rock Bluff, and
Moose Pond.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3075 8566 3074 8562 3077 8562 3080 8560
      3094 8532 3100 8498 3103 8472 3092 8454
      3062 8464 3053 8490 3049 8525 3052 8566
TIME...MOT...LOC 1407Z 255DEG 30KT 3063 8560 3074 8513

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

21-WD

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
1011 AM EDT Sun Aug 2 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0959 AM     Marine Tstm Wind 2 N Magnolia Beach      30.19N 85.73W
08/02/2026  M39 MPH          Bay                FL   Mesonet

            Gulf Coast State College WeatherSTEM
            reported a 39 mph wind gust.

0959 AM     Marine Tstm Wind 2 N Magnolia Beach      30.19N 85.72W
08/02/2026  M39 MPH          Bay                FL   Mesonet

            FSU Panama City WeatherSTEM reported a 39
            mph wind gust.

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
1030 AM EDT Sun Aug 2 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1018 AM     Tstm Wnd Gst     3 W Alford              30.70N 85.45W
08/02/2026  M40 MPH          Washington         FL   Mesonet

            Ambient weather station reported 40 mph
            gust.

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
1039 AM EDT Sun Aug 2 2026

FLZ012>014-112-114-326-426-021545-
Coastal Bay FL-Southern Liberty FL-Inland Bay FL-Calhoun FL-
Northern Liberty FL-Inland Gulf FL-Coastal Gulf FL-
1039 AM EDT Sun Aug 2 2026

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT GULF...SOUTHEASTERN BAY...
SOUTHWESTERN CALHOUN COUNTIES IN THE PANHANDLE OF FLORIDA AND
SOUTHWESTERN LIBERTY COUNTIES IN BIG BEND FLORIDA THROUGH 1145 AM
EDT/1045 AM CDT/...

At 1038 AM EDT/938 AM CDT/, Doppler radar was tracking strong
thunderstorms along a line extending from 9 miles east of Callaway to
9 miles southwest of Tyndall Air Force Base. Movement was east at 20
mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Port St. Joe, Mexico Beach, Stonemill Creek, Tyndall Air Force Base,
White City, Orange, Wewahitchka, Honeyville, Allanton, Vilas, Chipola
Cutoff, Jensen Place, Central City, Cape San Blas, Red Hill,
Overstreet, Kern, Davis Beach, Willis Landing, and Nixon Garden.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 2966 8543 2973 8548 2988 8549 2998 8566
      3023 8542 3025 8485 2995 8506 2961 8535
TIME...MOT...LOC 1438Z 273DEG 17KT 3018 8541 2994 8564

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

21-WD

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
1047 AM EDT Sun Aug 2 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1012 AM     Marine Tstm Wind 2 S Panama City         30.15N 85.67W
08/02/2026  M40 MPH          GMZ735             FL   C-Man Station

            Panama City Marina gusted to 40 mph.

&&