Flash Flood Warning 14, NWS Tallahassee, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
923 AM EDT Sat Aug 1 2026

...New UPDATE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 915 AM EDT Sat Aug 1 2026

- A Flood Watch is in effect for southern parts of the Florida
  Panhandle and Big Bend this morning through Monday afternoon.
  Widespread rainfall totals of 3 to 6 inches with localized
  amounts up to 8 to 10 inches are possible through Monday.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 915 AM EDT Sat Aug 1 2026

Widespread showers with embedded thunderstorms continue this
morning along the Panhandle and Big Bend coasts. There's been some
heavy rain at times, but most of the storms have been progressive
enough to mitigate the flood risk for now. However, for Dixie
County, there has been a rather persistent band beginning to take
shape from southwest of Cross City into Apalachee Bay south of St.
George Island, and this has been moving generally eastward. We'll
have to watch this area closely if it continues to train this
morning into the afternoon.

Another thing we've noticed this morning is that there's just
enough low to mid-level flow today that some of these storms have
tapped into to produce gusty winds in rather innocuous looking
storms, mainly near the coast. And we'll likely maintain some
threat of gusty winds in storms through the afternoon, but the
severe threat is rather low.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Monday Night)
Issued at 226 AM EDT Sat Aug 1 2026

Showers and thunderstorms through the weekend will be the main
focus for this term. An upper level trough will be extending
southward with a cold front heading towards the SE U.S. bringing a
high chance for rain and thunderstorms that could produce totals
of several inches. The setup is conducive for the coastal regions
to receive the most rainfall as we will have southwest flow
bringing in moisture from the Gulf with the frontal boundary
settling across the Tri-State region. Forecast PWATs will range
from 2.2-2.5", indicating the potential for heavy rainfall.
Fortunately, environmental factors are not showing an increased
risk for any severe weather however, storms could still produce
isolated damaging wind gusts.

Guidance starts with showers and thunderstorms developing along
the Emerald Coast this morning prior to daybreak. These storms may
hug along the coastal region for several hours, leading to the
potential of nuisance and/or flash flooding. As the day
progresses, the showers and thunderstorms will become more
numerous and spread eastwards and inland. The overall system,
being pushed eastward by the front and upper-level trough will
continue through Monday bringing several rounds of rain to the
region. The WPC has highlighted much of the area in a Slight
(level 2 of 4) Risk for Excessive Rainfall for today (Saturday)
and covers the Panhandle/Big Bend region through Sunday and hence
a Flood Watch has been issued for the coastal communities of the
FL Panhandle and Big Bend through Monday afternoon for the
potential of receiving 3-6 inches of rain with locally higher
amounts of up to 8-10 inches possible through Monday. More info is
discussed in the Hydrology section.

Temperatures for the Short term will be in the mid to upper 80s
for the afternoon highs thanks to the abundant cloud cover and
rain. Overnight lows will be in the low-mid 70s, and humid.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 226 AM EDT Sat Aug 1 2026

For the start of the Long Term, the upper level trough will begin
to lift and shift eastward, lowering our rain/thunderstorm
chances as we head into mid-week. Temperatures will begin to climb
back into the mid and upper 90s by the end of the term and
overnight lows in the mid-70s with daily PoPs gradually decreasing
to about 30-40% each afternoon; a more typical summertime
pattern.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 629 AM EDT Sat Aug 1 2026

Models have trended to more MVFR cigs today and especially with
the rainfall today into this evening. Speaking of rain, showers
and storms will develop and increase in coverage this morning as a
shortwave trough moves into the area. Much of the day will be off
and on convection with probabilities 70-90% beginning a little
later this morning. Heading into this evening convection coverage
should decrease till the overnight hours. MVFR/IFR cigs will
redevelop affecting DHN/ABY/VLD after 06Z.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 226 AM EDT Sat Aug 1 2026

Showers and thunderstorms can be expected over the marine zones
every day. Gusty winds and frequent lightning will accompany these
storms. Outside of storms, westerly/southwesterly winds around
Cautionary levels can be expected, with possible Advisory level
winds beginning Saturday night into Sunday. Seas will be ranging
around 3-5 feet for the weekend. For the start of the work week,
winds and seas will begin to relax with seas returning to around 2
feet with winds later lessening to around 10-15 kts.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 226 AM EDT Sat Aug 1 2026

Widespread wetting rains this weekend will keep fire weather
concerns at a minimum. Transport winds will remain out of the west
to southwest around 10-20 mph through this weekend, then
lessening to 5-10 mph for the upcoming work week.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 226 AM EDT Sat Aug 1 2026

An upper level trough will be sinking southward over the next
couple of days, bringing a cold front towards the SE U.S.. Showers
and thunderstorms ahead of the front will be plentiful with the
assistance of southwesterly flow from the Gulf, increasing PWATs
to range from 2.2-2.5" across the region this weekend into the
start of next week. Showers and thunderstorms will be most
concentrated along the coastal regions in the FL Panhandle and Big
Bend. 3-6 inches are forecast with locally higher amounts of up
to 8-10 inches are possible through Monday. The WPC has
highlighted the entire CWA in a Slight (level 2 of 4) Risk for
Excessive Rainfall for today (Saturday). On Sunday, the Slight
risk is reduced to the Florida state line, with a Marginal (level
1 of 4) for our AL and GA counties. The system begins to move out
of the area on Monday with the Big Bend region in a Marginal risk.
The potential for flash flooding is is increased in these areas
over the next few days, hence a Flood Watch is in effect from
early this morning (5 AM EDT / 4 AM CDT) through Monday afternoon.

Rivers are in good condition at the moment. However, a few
coastal rivers may see rises depending on where the rain
ultimately falls.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   84  74  86  73 /  90  30  90  70
Panama City   87  79  87  77 /  80  60  90  70
Dothan        88  75  89  72 /  80  50  70  50
Albany        88  73  88  73 /  80  50  90  40
Valdosta      90  73  88  72 /  90  30  80  70
Cross City    86  74  85  73 /  90  80  90  80
Apalachicola  85  78  85  77 /  90  50  90  80

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Flood Watch through Monday afternoon for FLZ012-014-015-027>029-
     034-112-114-115-118-127-128-134-426.

     High Rip Current Risk through this evening for FLZ112-114.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...Montgomery
LONG TERM....Montgomery
AVIATION...Scholl
MARINE...Montgomery
FIRE WEATHER...Montgomery
HYDROLOGY...Montgomery

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
822 AM EDT Sat Aug 1 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0754 AM     Marine Tstm Wind 2 S Panama City         30.15N 85.67W
08/01/2026  M51 MPH          Bay                FL   C-Man Station

            Panama City Marina gusted to 43 mph.

0804 AM     Marine Tstm Wind 4 SE Tyndall Afb        30.03N 85.53W
08/01/2026  M40 MPH          Bay                FL   AWOS

            KTDR reported wind gust of 40 mph.

0804 AM     Marine Tstm Wind 1 ESE Tyndall Afb       30.07N 85.57W
08/01/2026  M45 MPH          Bay                FL   AWOS

            AWOS station KPAM Tyndall AFB.

0815 AM     Marine Tstm Wind 4 ESE Callaway          30.13N 85.52W
08/01/2026  M50 MPH          Bay                FL   Mesonet

            Ambient weather station reported 50 mph wind
            gust.

0821 AM     Marine Tstm Wind 5 ENE Tyndall Afb       30.11N 85.50W
08/01/2026  M40 MPH          Bay                FL   Mesonet

            Ambient weather station reported 40 mph wind
            gust.

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
823 AM EDT Sat Aug 1 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0809 AM     Marine Tstm Wind 5 ENE Tyndall Afb       30.11N 85.50W
08/01/2026  M40 MPH          Bay                FL   Mesonet

            Corrects previous marine tstm wind report
            from 5 ENE Tyndall Afb. Ambient weather
            station reported 40 mph wind gust.

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
849 AM EDT Sat Aug 1 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0839 AM     Marine Tstm Wind Horseshoe Point         29.44N 83.29W
08/01/2026  M41 MPH          Dixie              FL   Mesonet

            FSWN Dixie Horseshoe Beach WeatherSTEM
            gusted to 41 mph.

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
941 AM EDT Sat Aug 1 2026

FLZ015>017-027-115-127-326-426-011445-
Inland Franklin FL-Gadsden FL-Southern Liberty FL-Coastal Wakulla FL-
Northern Liberty FL-Coastal Franklin FL-Inland Wakulla FL-Leon FL-
941 AM EDT Sat Aug 1 2026

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT WAKULLA...CENTRAL GADSDEN...
CENTRAL LIBERTY...LEON AND NORTHEASTERN FRANKLIN COUNTIES THROUGH
1045 AM EDT...

At 941 AM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 8 miles southwest of Greensboro to 14 miles
west of Crawfordville to near Eastpoint. Movement was east at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Tallahassee, Woodville, Carrabelle, Tallahassee State College,
Florida State University, Eastpoint, Quincy, St. Marks, Midway,
Crawfordville, Florida A and M, Havana, Doak Campbell Stadium,
Greensboro, Wakulla, Franklin, Sopchoppy, Lake Bradford, Rock Bluff,
and Jewel Fire Tower.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 2974 8493 3013 8469 3056 8497 3057 8496
      3062 8426 3048 8408 3010 8408 3009 8407
      3003 8406 3002 8412 3001 8422 3000 8423
      2999 8426 2988 8428 2985 8450 2966 8470
TIME...MOT...LOC 1341Z 281DEG 18KT 3050 8486 3013 8457 2979 8482

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

21-WD

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
1045 AM EDT Sat Aug 1 2026

FLZ016>019-027-028-118-127-128-GAZ155>158-011545-
Gadsden FL-Coastal Wakulla FL-Madison FL-Leon FL-Inland Taylor FL-
Coastal Jefferson FL-Inland Jefferson FL-Inland Wakulla FL-
Coastal Taylor FL-Decatur GA-Thomas GA-Seminole GA-Grady GA-
1045 AM EDT Sat Aug 1 2026

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT NORTHEASTERN WAKULLA...
NORTHEASTERN GADSDEN...JEFFERSON...WESTERN TAYLOR...LEON...
SOUTHWESTERN MADISON...SOUTHERN DECATUR...SOUTHERN GRADY...
SOUTHWESTERN THOMAS AND SOUTHEASTERN SEMINOLE COUNTIES THROUGH 1145
AM EDT...

At 1045 AM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 8 miles northeast of Chattahoochee to Doak
Campbell Stadium to near St. Marks. Movement was east at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Tallahassee, Woodville, Monticello, Tallahassee State College,
Florida State University, Quincy, Havana, St. Marks, Perry, Midway,
Florida A and M, Cairo, Bainbridge, Thomasville, Whigham, Doak
Campbell Stadium, Wakulla, Attapulgus, Climax, and Alma.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 2991 8382 3002 8404 3002 8410 3005 8417
      3041 8440 3085 8490 3093 8438 3078 8391
      3050 8366 3004 8351 2978 8351
TIME...MOT...LOC 1445Z 265DEG 20KT 3081 8477 3042 8432 3012 8413

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

21-WD

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
1149 AM EDT Sat Aug 1 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1019 AM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     2 ENE Wakulla Springs   30.24N 84.28W
08/01/2026                   Wakulla            FL   Law Enforcement

            Tree down blocking Bloxham Cutoff. Time
            estimated by radar.

&&