Flash Flood Warning 10, NWS Tallahassee, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
1044 AM EDT Fri Jun 19 2026

...New UPDATE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1043 AM EDT Fri Jun 19 2026

- Additional rounds of heavy rain are expected through today, with
  the heaviest amounts expected across southeast Alabama,
  southwest Georgia, and the Florida panhandle. High rain rates
  and training bands will increase the chance of dangerous to
  life-threatening flash flooding. A Flood Watch is in effect
  through today, generally near and west of a Panama City to
  Ashburn line for the potential for flash flooding.

- Strong thunderstorms are expected through this evening. The man
  concerns will be gusty downburst winds and dangerous lightning.
  There is a Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 5) of severe thunderstorms
  across the entire region.

- A High Risk of life-threatening rip currents is forecast to
  continue through at least Saturday for the Walton, Bay, and Gulf
  county beaches. It is strongly discouraged to enter the surf on
  high risk days. Please heed the beach flags and advice of local
  officials.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1043 AM EDT Fri Jun 19 2026

The forecast remains on track this morning, updates don't appear
necessary.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 349 AM EDT Fri Jun 19 2026

The remnant low pressure circulation from former Tropical
Depression Arthur is heading northeastward through Northeast
Georgia. In its wake, a frontal-like trailing low pressure trough
is already hanging up across southern Mississippi and southern
Alabama. This will continue to be the most significant focus for
renewed thunderstorm development today. Very moist Precipitable
Water (PW) values of 2.1 to 2.3 inches and a moderately to very
unstable air mass will lead to torrential instantaneous rainfall
rates. Steering flow will be parallel to the trough, supporting
repeated rounds of training thunderstorms. Additional rainfall
amounts of 1 to 3 inches will be most common. However where
training sets up most effectively, pockets of additional rainfall
could exceed 6 inches. Recent rains have already moistened the
ground and raised river levels, so the higher-end amounts would
lead to flash flooding, along with flooding of creeks and streams.

Unseasonably fast flow aloft will lead to 1000-500 mb bulk shear
values of 25-40 knots. This will help organize some of the storms
into gusty multi-cell clusters or perhaps short lines. Isolated
damaging thunderstorm winds are the main concern. The vertical
wind profile is not so veered today due to exit of Arthur's
remnant circulation, so that ingredient for tornadoes will be
missing today. There is a Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 5) of severe
thunderstorms areawide.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 349 AM EDT Fri Jun 19 2026

The frontal-like east-west surface trough will continue to linger
over the region on Saturday, perhaps nudging a little further
south toward the Florida state line. The shortwave that is
currently over North Texas will cross our region on Saturday,
tapping into the very moist 2+ inch PW air mass to kick off more
thunderstorms.

The low-level trough will start to lose definition on Sunday, then
it will dissipate on Monday as our 500 mb heights rise and
the subtropical ridge axis to our south expands in our direction.
Convection on Monday and Tuesday should mainly be confined to the
more typically favored seabreeze zones across Florida.

500 mb heights fall modestly on Tuesday and Wednesday, and we may
get into some northwest flow aloft. A diffuse cold front will slip
southward into northern or central AL/GA and remain through
Thursday. Proximity of this feature with W-NW flow aloft, in
addition to the typical seabreeze focus areas, will bring an
increase in rain chance from Tuesday through Thursday. Storms in
NW flow tend to bring gusty convective winds.

Over the next week, temperatures will peak on Monday and Tuesday,
as coverage of cooling thunderstorms reaches a minimum. Current
forecast suggests we will come up just short of needing any Heat
Advisories.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 609 AM EDT Fri Jun 19 2026

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will become more widespread
during the late morning into the afternoon hours. MVFR to IFR
conditions can be expected in and around thunderstorms with gusty
winds up to 20 kts this morning. Higher gusts are likely within
thunderstorms with damaging severe gusts possible. Thunderstorm
activity is expected to diminish following sunset, but some storms
may linger into the late evening hours.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 349 AM EDT Fri Jun 19 2026

Moderate to fresh southwest breezes this morning will gradually
decrease this afternoon and tonight, as a subtropical Atlantic
ridge expands west across the Florida Peninsula and into the
eastern Gulf. High pressure ridging will then continue over the
eastern Gulf through Tuesday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 349 AM EDT Fri Jun 19 2026

A very moist air mass will remain in place today and Saturday,
before a little drying occurs on Sunday. With the moist air mass,
abundant thunderstorms and wetting rain are expected in most
districts today and Saturday. Be ready for strong thunderstorm
wind gusts. Where storms repeatedly train over the same place, be
ready for flooding.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 349 AM EDT Fri Jun 19 2026

Scattered flash flooding is likely today, especially across
Southeast Alabama. Training thunderstorms in a very moist air mass
will support repeated rounds of torrential rainfall. The most
common rainfall amounts will be 1 to 3 inches. Where thunderstorm
training is most effective, rainfall amounts of 6 or more inches
will be possible. Flash flood guidance values are running a bit
lower after other rounds of heavy rain in recent days, so runoff
will be very reactive to high-end rain totals. A Flood Watch
remains in effect over along the NW of a Panama City-to-Ashburn
line. This is where the high-end totals have the highest chance of
occurring.

Flash flooding is still possible on Saturday, but it should be
more isolated. The setup for training will not be as robust, but
the air mass will still be very moist with torrential rainfall
rates beneath storms.

After Saturday, we return to a more typical summer risk, mainly
involving short-lived runoff issues beneath heavier storms.

On the river side, the Shoal River at Mossy Head just rose to
Action Stage, so we will soon start a Site Specific forecast for
our website.

Many other rivers from the Ochlockonee basin westward are forecast
to reach Action stage but not Flood Stage. With many rivers now
running high, if training storms develop over the headwaters of a
basin, then minor or moderate flooding would be achievable.
Ensemble river forecasts point to a 25 percent chance of minor
flooding on the Florida reach of the Choctawhatchee, for example.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   89  75  88  73 /  90  40  90  30
Panama City   87  78  87  77 /  60  70  60  20
Dothan        85  73  85  71 / 100  50  70  30
Albany        84  73  86  71 /  90  40  60  20
Valdosta      88  74  88  72 /  90  40  80  20
Cross City    91  77  91  74 /  60  50  60  20
Apalachicola  88  79  87  78 /  60  50  60  10

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Flood Watch through late tonight for FLZ007>013-108-112.

     High Rip Current Risk through late Sunday night for FLZ108-112-
     114.

     High Surf Advisory until 10 AM CDT this morning for FLZ108-112.

     High Rip Current Risk through late Saturday night for FLZ115.

GA...Flood Watch through late tonight for GAZ120>128-142>145-155-156.

AL...Flood Watch through late tonight for ALZ065>069.

GM...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...Haner
LONG TERM....Haner
AVIATION...Montgomery
MARINE...Haner
FIRE WEATHER...Haner
HYDROLOGY...Haner

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
610 AM EDT Fri Jun 19 2026

GAZ128-130-131-191100-
Irwin GA-Turner GA-Ben Hill GA-
610 AM EDT Fri Jun 19 2026

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT CENTRAL IRWIN...EASTERN TURNER
AND BEN HILL COUNTIES THROUGH 700 AM EDT...

At 610 AM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Milan to 6 miles northeast of Arabi.
Movement was southeast at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Fitzgerald, Ocilla, Mystic, Rebecca, Lulaville, Amboy, Osierfield,
Waterloo, Pinetta, Ashton, Irwinville, Fitzgerald Municipal A/P,
Irwinville Airport, Bowens Mill, Wray, Red Bluff, Arp, Abba, and
Queensland.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3166 8300 3166 8301 3164 8301 3160 8306
      3158 8350 3159 8350 3160 8354 3180 8370
      3180 8361 3185 8361 3184 8321 3185 8318
      3183 8315 3183 8314 3181 8313 3182 8311
      3178 8303 3178 8299
TIME...MOT...LOC 1010Z 298DEG 27KT 3195 8310 3188 8364

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

42-DVD

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
613 AM EDT Fri Jun 19 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1055 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     3 N Scrutchins          31.90N 84.19W
06/18/2026                   Lee                GA   Dept of Highways

            511GA reports fallen trees on SR 377
            Eastbound at SR 118.

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
743 AM EDT Fri Jun 19 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0701 AM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     4 W Red Bluff           31.78N 83.08W
06/19/2026                   Ben Hill           GA   Dept of Highways

            511GA reports trees down on SR107 at River
            Road east of Fitzgerald.

&&

PC