Flash Flood Warning 1, NWS Tallahassee, FL

099 
WGUS72 KTAE 130301
FFSTAE

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
1101 PM EDT Tue May 12 2026

GAC027-275-130400-
/O.CON.KTAE.FF.W.0001.000000T0000Z-260513T0400Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Brooks GA-Thomas GA-
1101 PM EDT Tue May 12 2026

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT 
FOR NORTHWESTERN BROOKS AND EAST CENTRAL THOMAS COUNTIES...

At 1101 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated heavy rain across the warned 
area. Between 5 and 7 inches of rain have fallen. Additional 
rainfall amounts of 1 to 3 inches are possible in the warned area. 
Flash flooding is ongoing or expected to begin shortly.

HAZARD...Life threatening flash flooding. Heavy rain producing
         flash flooding.

SOURCE...Radar.

IMPACT...Life threatening flash flooding of creeks and streams,
         urban areas, highways, streets and underpasses.

Some locations that will experience flash flooding include...
  Pavo.

This includes the following streams and drainages...
  Piscola Creek, Mule Creek, Big Creek, Okapilco Creek and Reedy 
  Creek.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

Be especially cautious at night when it is harder to recognize the 
dangers of flooding.

&&

LAT...LON 3089 8379 3091 8380 3096 8380 3096 8378
      3102 8369 3103 8365 3103 8357 3099 8357
      3097 8363 3095 8368 3093 8374 3089 8377

FLASH FLOOD...RADAR INDICATED
FLASH FLOOD DAMAGE THREAT...CONSIDERABLE

$$

Haner

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
907 PM EDT Tue May 12 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 829 PM EDT Tue May 12 2026

- Rainfall moves out this evening with a drier pattern setting up
  into the weekend and early next week.

- Very warm temperatures expected this weekend with a high (70 to
  90 percent) chance of temperatures exceeding 90 degrees. The
  heat may affect those who are sensitive, especially without
  cooling/hydration.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This Evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 254 PM EDT Tue May 12 2026

The upper level trough and associated surface low will move east
through the remainder of the forecast area this evening and
overnight. Widespread rain showers will move out with coverage
steadily decreasing this evening and into the overnight hours. A few
showers could stick around across the southeast Florida Big Bend
into the early morning hours of Wednesday, but most of the area will
begin to dry out by daybreak.

Northerly winds and drying conditions take over on Wednesday as the
upper level system moves out. With more sunshine expected tomorrow,
expect warmer temperatures as we climb into the low 80s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through next Monday)
Issued at 254 PM EDT Tue May 12 2026

A drier and warmer pattern sets up across the area from Thursday
into the weekend as an upper level ridge builds across the Gulf and
southerly low-level flow returns. The beneficial rains from the last
few days should help improve longer range fire concerns through at
least through the next few days. The main story will be the first
taste of typical summertime heat.

As the ridge builds expect highs in the mid to upper 80s on Thursday
to climb to around 90 by Saturday and possibly into the low 90s by
Monday and early next week. No rainfall is expected during the long
term, but with flow becoming southerly, and conditions getting much
warmer, it wouldn't be surprising to see a few isolated showers each
afternoon late this weekend and into next week, but a broad
widespread rain event is not likely in the next 7 days.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 829 PM EDT Tue May 12 2026

Showers and storms are gradually winding down across the region.
MVFR to IFR conditions are expected overnight as moisture remains
in the area. Conditions improve after daybreak tomorrow as skies
begin to clear out from west to east.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 254 PM EDT Tue May 12 2026

East and northeast winds will range from 15 to 20 knots with seas
building up to 3 feet tonight. Cautionary conditions will continue
into tonight with improving conditions expected on Wednesday. Expect
briefly higher winds and seas in the vicinity of any thunderstorms.
A dry cold frontal passage Wednesday night into Thursday will bring
northerly winds to area waters and then clock back around to the
northeast Thursday night. Easterly winds will become onshore during
the day Friday and Saturday within the seabreeze zone. Southerly
winds return by late in the weekend and into next week with
generally favorable boating conditions expected to continue.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 254 PM EDT Tue May 12 2026

Widespread rain showers will lift out this evening and into early
Wednesday with drying conditions expected through the remainder of
tomorrow. A frontal passage will then occur late Wednesday into
Thursday bringing a reinforcing shot of drier air as well as a small
increase in transport winds. With good post-frontal mixing and warm
temperatures we'll likely see high dispersions along with sub 30%
humidity for much of the area. Recent rains will help prevent larger
fire weather concerns, but localized elevated concerns given longer
term drought and the low RHs could not be ruled out. Sub 30%
humidities remain possible again on Friday before southerly flow
slowly brings low-level moisture back this weekend. However, no
significant chance of wetting rains is likely from Wednesday into
much of next week.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 254 PM EDT Tue May 12 2026

Recent rainfall is not expected to cause river flooding. Rainfall
amounts over the last several days have been beneficial for long-
term drought, but we still have a long ways to go before a
significant dent in the drought would occur. Looking ahead, a dry
period of weather is in store through the weekend and into early
next week.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   63  81  63  85 /  60  20   0   0
Panama City   64  82  66  84 /  30  10   0   0
Dothan        59  80  60  82 /  20   0   0   0
Albany        58  80  61  82 /  30  10   0   0
Valdosta      61  80  62  84 /  60  30  10   0
Cross City    64  83  63  87 /  60  40  10   0
Apalachicola  67  80  68  84 /  70  20   0   0

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...Dobbs
LONG TERM....Dobbs
AVIATION...Oliver
MARINE...Dobbs
FIRE WEATHER...Dobbs
HYDROLOGY...Dobbs