Alert archive / Texas / Mesoscale Discussions in 2026

Mesoscale Discussion 813

May 21, 202621 counties in Texas

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at May 21, 2026, 2:02 PM CDT for 21 counties in Texas. It was in force for 2 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
May 21, 2026, 2:02 PM CDT (19:02 UTC)
Expired
May 21, 2026, 4:30 PM CDT
In force
2 hr
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
Concerning
Severe potential...watch unlikely
Chance of a watch
20%
All 21 counties

Crane County, TX, Crockett County, TX, Ector County, TX, Edwards County, TX, Glasscock County, TX, Irion County, TX, Kimble County, TX, Martin County, TX, Menard County, TX, Midland County, TX, Pecos County, TX, Reagan County, TX, Real County, TX, Schleicher County, TX, Sterling County, TX, Sutton County, TX, Terrell County, TX, Tom Green County, TX, Upton County, TX, Val Verde County, TX, Ward County, TX

The radar

The Midland/Odessa radar (KMAF), 99 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 19:04 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Midland Regional, TX (KMAF), launched 12:00Z, 7.0 hours before the alert went out and 100 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Midland Regional, TX at 12:00Z on 2026-05-21Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 1423 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Midland Regional, TX at 12:00Z on 2026-05-21The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 131 square meters per square second.193958Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
1423 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-25 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
551 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
28 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
131 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
144 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.6
Supercell composite
4.3

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

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SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
May 21, 1:48 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAransas, Bee, Brooks, Cameron, Duval, Goliad and 15 more117 min
May 21, 1:10 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCDallam, Hartley2 hr
May 21, 2:19 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCDallam, Hansford, Hartley, Moore, Sherman8 hr
May 21, 3:35 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBailey, Cochran, Gaines, Parmer, Yoakum115 min
May 21, 4:02 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCDallam, Hansford, Hartley, Moore, Sherman88 min
May 21, 5:34 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBandera, Bell, Bexar, Blanco, Burnet, Caldwell and 19 more86 min
May 21, 5:46 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCDallam119 min
May 21, 6:10 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBailey, Castro, Cochran, Deaf Smith, Hartley, Lamb and 3 more95 min

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Texas, 2026Every mesoscale discussion in 2026

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.