Alert archive / Indiana / Mesoscale Discussions in 2026
Mesoscale Discussion 252
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Mar 15, 2026, 8:07 PM EDT for 35 counties in Indiana; 26 counties in Kentucky. It was in force for 53 min.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Mar 15, 2026, 8:07 PM EDT (00:07 UTC)
- Expired
- Mar 15, 2026, 9:00 PM EDT
- In force
- 53 min
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
- Concerning
- Severe potential...tornado watch likely
- Chance of a watch
- 95%
All 61 counties
Bartholomew County, IN, Brown County, IN, Clark County, IN, Clay County, IN, Crawford County, IN, Decatur County, IN, Dubois County, IN, Fayette County, IN, Floyd County, IN, Franklin County, IN, Greene County, IN, Hancock County, IN, Harrison County, IN, Hendricks County, IN, Jackson County, IN, Jefferson County, IN, Jennings County, IN, Johnson County, IN, Lawrence County, IN, Marion County, IN, Martin County, IN, Monroe County, IN, Montgomery County, IN, Morgan County, IN, Orange County, IN, Owen County, IN, Parke County, IN, Perry County, IN, Putnam County, IN, Ripley County, IN, Rush County, IN, Scott County, IN, Shelby County, IN, Switzerland County, IN, Washington County, IN, Adair County, KY, Anderson County, KY, Breckinridge County, KY, Bullitt County, KY, Butler County, KY, Carroll County, KY, Edmonson County, KY, Grayson County, KY, Green County, KY, Hancock County, KY, Hardin County, KY, Hart County, KY, Henry County, KY, Jefferson County, KY, Larue County, KY, Marion County, KY, Meade County, KY, Nelson County, KY, Ohio County, KY, Oldham County, KY, Shelby County, KY, Spencer County, KY, Taylor County, KY, Trimble County, KY, Warren County, KY, Washington County, KY
The radar
The Louisville radar (KLVX), 31 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 00:08 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The watches that followed
Watches SPC issued over any of the same counties within four hours of this discussion.
The nearest sounding before it
Nashville Metro, TN (KBNA), launched 00:00Z, 0.1 hours before the alert went out and 231 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 59 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -216 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 1722 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 54 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 296 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 536 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.2
The text
As transmitted.
768 ACUS11 KWNS 160008 SWOMCD SPC MCD 160007 KYZ000-INZ000-160100- Mesoscale Discussion 0252 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0707 PM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026 Areas affected...Central/Southern Indiana into south central Kentucky Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely Valid 160007Z - 160100Z Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent SUMMARY...New Tornado Watch will likely be issued by 01z from portions of central Indiana, south into south central Kentucky. DISCUSSION...Strongly forced squall line, with embedded bows and circulations, is propagating steadily east toward western Indiana. This LEWP appears to have increased its eastward movement to around 35-40kt, and should exit the current watch into west central Indiana by 01z. In advance of the squall line, a roughly 50mi wide band of weak elevated convection has evolved across southeast Illinois into western Indiana. This activity has struggled to attain intensity, but is likely a reflection of the adjusting lapse rates in response to the strong large-scale ascent that is spreading into this region. New Tornado watch will be issued by 01z. ..Darrow/Smith.. 03/16/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...ILN...LMK...IND...PAH... LAT...LON 36978684 40108724 39858508 37038492 36978684 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...75-90 MPH
SPC that day
Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 15, 8:26 PM EDT | Tornado Watch | SPC | Bartholomew, Boone, Brown, Carroll, Clark, Clay and 42 more | 6 hr |
| Mar 15, 9:29 PM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Boone, Carroll, Cass, Clinton, Elkhart, Fountain and 22 more | 2 hr |
| Mar 15, 11:15 PM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Dearborn, Fayette, Franklin, Union, Wayne | 60 min |
| Mar 15, 11:53 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Dearborn, Delaware, Fayette, Franklin, Henry, Ohio and 3 more | 4 hr |
| Mar 16, 12:14 AM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Allen, DeKalb | 2 hr |
| Mar 16, 12:41 AM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Bath, Bell, Breathitt, Clay, Elliott, Estill and 28 more | 6 hr |
Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in Indiana, 2026Mesoscale Discussions in Kentucky, 2026Every mesoscale discussion in 2026
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.