Alert archive / Virginia / Mesoscale Discussions in 2026

Mesoscale Discussion 2000

August 16, 20264 states

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Aug 16, 2026, 3:28 PM EDT for 4 states. It was in force for 2 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Aug 16, 2026, 3:28 PM EDT (19:28 UTC)
Expired: Aug 16, 2026, 5:30 PM EDT
In force: 2 hr
Issued by: the Storm Prediction Center
Concerning: Severe potential...watch likely
Chance of a watch: 80%

All 40 counties

Allegany County, MD, Washington County, MD, Bedford County, PA, Fulton County, PA, Somerset County, PA, Albemarle County, VA, Amherst County, VA, Augusta County, VA, Bath County, VA, Buckingham County, VA, City of Buena Vista, VA, City of Charlottesville, VA, City of Harrisonburg, VA, City of Lexington, VA, City of Staunton, VA, City of Waynesboro, VA, City of Winchester, VA, Clarke County, VA, Culpeper County, VA, Fauquier County, VA, Fluvanna County, VA, Frederick County, VA, Greene County, VA, Madison County, VA, Nelson County, VA, Orange County, VA, Page County, VA, Rappahannock County, VA, Rockbridge County, VA, Rockingham County, VA, Shenandoah County, VA, Warren County, VA, Berkeley County, WV, Grant County, WV, Hampshire County, WV, Hardy County, WV, Jefferson County, WV, Mineral County, WV, Morgan County, WV, Pendleton County, WV

The radar

The Sterling radar (KLWX), 115 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 19:29 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The watches that followed

Watches SPC issued over any of the same counties within four hours of this discussion.

Severe Thunderstorm Watch 588Aug 16, 4:35 PM EDT

The nearest sounding before it

Roanoke, VA (KRNK), launched 12:00Z, 7.5 hours before the alert went out and 189 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 334 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -57 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 630 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 23 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 78 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 57 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.2

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

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SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Aug 16, 4:36 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Watch	SPC	Allegany, Carroll, Charles, Frederick, Garrett, Howard and 3 more	6 hr
Aug 16, 7:00 PM EDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Calvert, Carroll, Charles, Frederick, Howard, Montgomery and 3 more	60 min
Aug 16, 11:56 AM EDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Allegheny, Beaver, Butler, Greene, Lawrence, Washington	64 min
Aug 16, 1:05 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Watch	SPC	Allegheny, Armstrong, Beaver, Butler, Clarion, Fayette and 9 more	9 hr
Aug 16, 2:28 PM EDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Allegheny, Armstrong, Beaver, Butler, Clarion, Fayette and 6 more	2 hr
Aug 16, 6:31 PM EDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Boone, Braxton, Cabell, Calhoun, Clay, Fayette and 16 more	89 min

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Virginia, 2026 Mesoscale Discussions in West Virginia, 2026 Mesoscale Discussions in Pennsylvania, 2026 Every mesoscale discussion in 2026

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.