Alert archive / Kentucky / Mesoscale Discussions in 2026

Mesoscale Discussion 166

March 7, 20265 states

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Mar 7, 2026, 9:57 AM CST for 5 states. It was in force for 3 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Mar 7, 2026, 9:57 AM CST (15:57 UTC)
Expired
Mar 7, 2026, 12:30 PM CST
In force
3 hr
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
Concerning
Severe potential...watch possible
Chance of a watch
60%
All 134 counties

Lauderdale County, AL, Adair County, KY, Allen County, KY, Anderson County, KY, Barren County, KY, Bath County, KY, Bourbon County, KY, Boyle County, KY, Bracken County, KY, Breathitt County, KY, Bullitt County, KY, Butler County, KY, Calloway County, KY, Campbell County, KY, Carter County, KY, Casey County, KY, Christian County, KY, Clark County, KY, Clay County, KY, Clinton County, KY, Cumberland County, KY, Edmonson County, KY, Elliott County, KY, Estill County, KY, Fayette County, KY, Fleming County, KY, Franklin County, KY, Garrard County, KY, Grant County, KY, Grayson County, KY, Green County, KY, Hardin County, KY, Harrison County, KY, Hart County, KY, Henry County, KY, Jackson County, KY, Jessamine County, KY, Johnson County, KY, Kenton County, KY, Larue County, KY, Laurel County, KY, Lawrence County, KY, Lee County, KY, Lewis County, KY, Lincoln County, KY, Logan County, KY, Madison County, KY, Magoffin County, KY, Marion County, KY, Mason County, KY, McCreary County, KY, Menifee County, KY, Mercer County, KY, Metcalfe County, KY, Monroe County, KY, Montgomery County, KY, Morgan County, KY, Muhlenberg County, KY, Nelson County, KY, Nicholas County, KY, Ohio County, KY, Owen County, KY, Owsley County, KY, Pendleton County, KY, Powell County, KY, Pulaski County, KY, Robertson County, KY, Rockcastle County, KY, Rowan County, KY, Russell County, KY, Scott County, KY, Shelby County, KY, Simpson County, KY, Spencer County, KY, Taylor County, KY, Todd County, KY, Trigg County, KY, Warren County, KY, Washington County, KY, Wayne County, KY, Wolfe County, KY, Woodford County, KY, Alcorn County, MS, Benton County, MS, DeSoto County, MS, Marshall County, MS, Tippah County, MS, Tishomingo County, MS, Benton County, TN, Cannon County, TN, Carroll County, TN, Cheatham County, TN, Chester County, TN, Clay County, TN, Crockett County, TN, Davidson County, TN, Decatur County, TN, DeKalb County, TN, Dickson County, TN, Fayette County, TN, Fentress County, TN, Gibson County, TN, Hardeman County, TN, Hardin County, TN, Haywood County, TN, Henderson County, TN, Henry County, TN, Hickman County, TN, Houston County, TN, Humphreys County, TN, Jackson County, TN, Lawrence County, TN, Lewis County, TN, Macon County, TN, Madison County, TN, Marshall County, TN, Maury County, TN, McNairy County, TN, Montgomery County, TN, Overton County, TN, Perry County, TN, Pickett County, TN, Putnam County, TN, Robertson County, TN, Rutherford County, TN, Smith County, TN, Stewart County, TN, Sumner County, TN, Trousdale County, TN, Wayne County, TN, Weakley County, TN, Williamson County, TN, Wilson County, TN, Wayne County, WV

The radar

The Nashville radar (KOHX), 96 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 15:58 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The watches that followed

Watches SPC issued over any of the same counties within four hours of this discussion.

The nearest sounding before it

Nashville Metro, TN (KBNA), launched 12:00Z, 4.0 hours before the alert went out and 109 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Nashville Metro, TN at 12:00Z on 2026-03-07Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 336 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Nashville Metro, TN at 12:00Z on 2026-03-07The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 176 square meters per square second.193958Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
336 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-107 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
1005 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
29 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
176 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
169 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.1
Supercell composite
0.7

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

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SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Mar 7, 12:54 PM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCLamar, Pickens, Sumter66 min
Mar 7, 5:55 PM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCChoctaw, Greene, Sumter2 hr
Mar 7, 5:40 AM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBallard, Breckinridge, Caldwell, Carlisle, Crittenden, Daviess and 12 more2 hr
Mar 7, 7:52 AM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBoone, Campbell, Carroll, Franklin, Gallatin, Grant and 9 more83 min
Mar 7, 10:27 AM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCAllen, Barren, Butler, Caldwell, Christian, Edmonson and 18 more5 hr
Mar 7, 1:44 PM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBath, Bell, Breathitt, Carter, Casey, Clay and 36 more2 hr
Mar 7, 7:53 AM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCAlcorn, Benton, Bolivar, Calhoun, Chickasaw, Coahoma and 19 more8 hr
Mar 7, 1:16 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCAdams, Attala, Carroll, Choctaw, Claiborne, Clarke and 35 more8 hr
Mar 7, 3:49 PM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAdams, Attala, Choctaw, Claiborne, Clay, Copiah and 24 more86 min
Mar 7, 11:57 AM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBrooke, Hancock, Jackson, Marshall, Mason, Ohio and 5 more2 hr
Mar 7, 12:23 PM CSTTornado WatchSPCBrooke, Doddridge, Hancock, Harrison, Marion, Marshall and 10 more5 hr
Mar 7, 2:55 PM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBarbour, Calhoun, Doddridge, Gilmer, Harrison, Lewis and 10 more2 hr

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Kentucky, 2026Mesoscale Discussions in Tennessee, 2026Mesoscale Discussions in Mississippi, 2026Every mesoscale discussion in 2026

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.