Alert archive / Virginia / Mesoscale Discussions in 2026
Mesoscale Discussion 1649
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Jul 18, 2026, 1:56 PM EDT for 4 states. It was in force for 64 min.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Jul 18, 2026, 1:56 PM EDT (17:56 UTC)
- Expired
- Jul 18, 2026, 3:00 PM EDT
- In force
- 64 min
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
- Concerning
- Severe potential...watch likely
- Chance of a watch
- 80%
All 129 counties
Alamance County, NC, Alexander County, NC, Alleghany County, NC, Ashe County, NC, Avery County, NC, Bertie County, NC, Burke County, NC, Cabarrus County, NC, Caldwell County, NC, Caswell County, NC, Catawba County, NC, Chatham County, NC, Cleveland County, NC, Davidson County, NC, Davie County, NC, Durham County, NC, Edgecombe County, NC, Forsyth County, NC, Franklin County, NC, Gaston County, NC, Gates County, NC, Granville County, NC, Guilford County, NC, Halifax County, NC, Harnett County, NC, Hertford County, NC, Iredell County, NC, Johnston County, NC, Lee County, NC, Lincoln County, NC, McDowell County, NC, Mecklenburg County, NC, Montgomery County, NC, Moore County, NC, Nash County, NC, Northampton County, NC, Orange County, NC, Person County, NC, Randolph County, NC, Rockingham County, NC, Rowan County, NC, Stanly County, NC, Stokes County, NC, Surry County, NC, Vance County, NC, Wake County, NC, Warren County, NC, Watauga County, NC, Wilkes County, NC, Wilson County, NC, Yadkin County, NC, Johnson County, TN, Albemarle County, VA, Alleghany County, VA, Amelia County, VA, Amherst County, VA, Appomattox County, VA, Augusta County, VA, Bedford County, VA, Bland County, VA, Botetourt County, VA, Brunswick County, VA, Buckingham County, VA, Campbell County, VA, Carroll County, VA, Charles City County, VA, Charlotte County, VA, Chesterfield County, VA, City of Buena Vista, VA, City of Charlottesville, VA, City of Colonial Heights, VA, City of Covington, VA, City of Danville, VA, City of Emporia, VA, City of Franklin, VA, City of Galax, VA, City of Hopewell, VA, City of Lexington, VA, City of Lynchburg, VA, City of Martinsville, VA, City of Petersburg, VA, City of Radford, VA, City of Richmond, VA, City of Roanoke, VA, City of Salem, VA, City of Staunton, VA, City of Suffolk, VA, City of Waynesboro, VA, City of Williamsburg, VA, Craig County, VA, Cumberland County, VA, Dinwiddie County, VA, Floyd County, VA, Fluvanna County, VA, Franklin County, VA, Giles County, VA, Goochland County, VA, Grayson County, VA, Greensville County, VA, Halifax County, VA, Hanover County, VA, Henrico County, VA, Henry County, VA, Isle of Wight County, VA, James City County, VA, King William County, VA, Louisa County, VA, Lunenburg County, VA, Mecklenburg County, VA, Montgomery County, VA, Nelson County, VA, New Kent County, VA, Nottoway County, VA, Patrick County, VA, Pittsylvania County, VA, Powhatan County, VA, Prince Edward County, VA, Prince George County, VA, Pulaski County, VA, Roanoke County, VA, Rockbridge County, VA, Smyth County, VA, Southampton County, VA, Surry County, VA, Sussex County, VA, Tazewell County, VA, Wythe County, VA, Mercer County, WV, Monroe County, WV
The radar
The Roanoke radar (KFCX), 70 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 17:57 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The watches that followed
Watches SPC issued over any of the same counties within four hours of this discussion.
The nearest sounding before it
Roanoke, VA (KRNK), launched 12:00Z, 5.9 hours before the alert went out and 57 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 545 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -103 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 1058 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 25 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 27 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 40 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.5
The text
As transmitted.
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</html>SPC that day
Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 18, 2:14 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Alamance, Camden, Caswell, Chatham, Currituck, Davidson and 22 more | 7 hr |
| Jul 18, 4:58 PM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Alamance, Camden, Caswell, Currituck, Durham, Forsyth and 13 more | 62 min |
| Jul 18, 12:50 PM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Arlington, Clarke, Culpeper, Fairfax, Fauquier, Frederick and 12 more | 85 min |
| Jul 18, 12:18 PM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Hancock | 117 min |
| Jul 18, 1:02 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Brooke, Hancock, Marion, Marshall, Monongalia, Ohio and 2 more | 8 hr |
| Jul 18, 6:47 PM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Brooke, Hancock, Ohio | 118 min |
Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in Virginia, 2026Mesoscale Discussions in North Carolina, 2026Mesoscale Discussions in West Virginia, 2026Every mesoscale discussion in 2026
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.