Alert archive / Montana / Mesoscale Discussions in 2026
Mesoscale Discussion 1521
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Jul 6, 2026, 12:36 AM MDT for 6 counties in Montana; 5 counties in North Dakota. It was in force for 114 min.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Jul 6, 2026, 12:36 AM MDT (06:36 UTC)
- Expired
- Jul 6, 2026, 2:30 AM MDT
- In force
- 114 min
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
- Concerning
- Severe potential...watch unlikely
- Chance of a watch
- 20%
Counties Dawson County, MT, Fallon County, MT, Richland County, MT, Roosevelt County, MT, Sheridan County, MT, Wibaux County, MT, Burke County, ND, Divide County, ND, Golden Valley County, ND, McKenzie County, ND, Williams County, ND
The radar
The Glasgow radar (KGGW), 205 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 06:35 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The nearest sounding before it
Glasgow Intl Airport, MT (KGGW), launched 00:00Z, 6.6 hours before the alert went out and 203 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 255 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -208 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 2787 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 44 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- -32 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 58 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- -0.2
The text
As transmitted.
340
ACUS11 KWNS 060636
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 060636
NDZ000-MTZ000-060830-
Mesoscale Discussion 1521
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0136 AM CDT Mon Jul 06 2026
Areas affected...Parts of eastern MT into western ND
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 060636Z - 060830Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...Isolated strong to severe storms are possible through the
early morning.
DISCUSSION...Scattered storms are ongoing early this morning across
parts of eastern MT, in association with a mid/upper-level shortwave
trough and attendant cold front. While this convection is likely
somewhat elevated, steep midlevel lapse rates atop relatively rich
low-level moisture are resulting in MUCAPE of 1500-2500 J/kg (per
recent objective mesoanalyses), with sufficient effective bulk shear
for some storm organization. This thermodynamic environment will
favor some hail threat, especially with any longer-lived
semi-discrete cells. Low-level nocturnal stabilization may limit the
severe-wind threat to some extent, but isolated strong to severe
gusts may still accompany the strongest downdrafts. The isolated
severe threat may spread into parts of western ND with time early
this morning.
..Dean/Mosier.. 07/06/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...BIS...BYZ...GGW...
LAT...LON 46520370 46210448 46540510 47760545 48440518 48970431
49270288 49040226 48410245 46520370
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 INSPC that day
Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 5, 7:10 PM MDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Custer, Dawson, Fallon, Fergus, Garfield, McCone and 7 more | 2 hr |
| Jul 5, 8:38 PM MDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Dunn, McHenry, McLean, Mercer, Stark, Ward | 97 min |
| Jul 6, 12:11 PM MDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Cass, Grand Forks, Ransom, Richland, Sargent, Steele and 1 more | 2 hr |
| Jul 6, 12:40 PM MDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Barnes, Cass, Grand Forks, Ransom, Richland, Sargent and 2 more | 7 hr |
| Jul 6, 5:02 PM MDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Cass, Ransom, Richland, Sargent | 58 min |
Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in Montana, 2026Mesoscale Discussions in North Dakota, 2026Every mesoscale discussion in 2026
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.