Special Weather Statement, NWS Salt Lake City, UT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT
548 PM MDT Tue Jul 21 2026

.KEY MESSAGES, Issued 116 PM MDT Tue Jul 21 2026...

- Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop across
portions of central, southern, northeast UT, and southwest WY each
afternoon within this forecast as monsoonal moisture continues
making its way north.

- The risk for flash flooding increases statewide today and
tomorrow, with both days featuring much of UT outlined within a
slight risk (2/4) of exceeding flash flood guidance.

- The potential for severe weather across UT this afternoon appears
to be increasing. Severe wind gusts (>58mph) appears to be the main
threat, particularly across southeast UT later this evening.

&&

.DISCUSSION, Issued 116 PM MDT Tue Jul 21 2026...
 A stronger monsoonal push is forecast to occur across
much of UT today as robust mid-level moisture returns to the region.
Currently, subsidence has built in across much of southern and
central UT following this mornings thunderstorms. This will serve to
offset convective initiation until around 1400-1500, enabling the
environment to destabilize further with CAPE general ranging from
1000-1500J/kg statewide, though CAPE ~2000J/kg appears possible
closer to southwest UT. With PWATs generally 1.2" or greater in
place across much of UT (0.8-1.0" PWAT anomalies for this time of
year), thunderstorms today are forecast to be efficient and heavy
rainmakers.

Of note, mid-level southwesterly flow will see an increase to around
20-30kts with multiple embedded shortwave perturbations providing
enough forcing for ascent. This will support multiple rounds of
storms this afternoon and through the evening hours as well as
storms propagating off terrain, which will be the opposite of what
we have been seeing through much of this recent monsoonal pattern
with storms remaining anchored to terrain. Typically, enhanced flow
would limit the flash flooding threat areawide as storms would not
remain over problematic basins and burn scars long enough to produce
flooding. However, given the efficient rainmaking status of these
storms with multiple rounds expected, the flash flooding threat
continues to exist, particularly if redevelopment occurs across a
single area in a short period of time. Additionally, the presence of
bulk shear to around 35kts supports organized storms sustaining
themselves for longer. Additionally, shear on this magnitude is
supportive of a supercell or two, particularly across southeast UT
where shear is greatest, which would increase the threat of flash
flooding further.

Regarding severe weather this afternoon and evening, the Storm
Prediction Center has placed much of UT within a Marginal Risk (1/5)
for severe weather with an emphasis on severe wind gusts in excess
of 58mph. Across most of UT, primarily western and northern, DCAPE
potentially in excess of 1500J/kg will exist this afternoon as
storms begin to develop ahead of the initial shortwave. This will
yield a scattered threat for strong to severe gusts through much of
the afternoon today as the enhanced flow aloft finds a better medium
amidst the higher DCAPE to mix down to the surface with.

Later this evening across southeast UT where forecast confidence in
wind shear to around 35kts is greatest, a westward propagating MCS
is forecast to move into the area from southwestern CO. Some mid-
level flow enhancement is possible around the time of initiation (to
around 30-40kts) with 1600-1800J/kg of DCAPE in place. This supports
an organized severe wind threat with a few severe gusts potentially
reaching as high as 70mph this evening across areas such as Glen
Canyon/Lake Powell and adjacent areas within eastern Wayne,
Garfield, and Kane counties.

A similar setup for flash flooding exists on Wednesday, though storm
motions are forecast to be somewhat slower as mid-level flow sees a
slight decrease. Fortunately, this will reduce wind shear somewhat
as well potentially reducing the longevity of storms. However, with
deep moisture remaining in place and weaker flow aloft, efficient
rainmaking thunderstorms remain expected with a slightly higher
chance of storms remaining anchored to terrain tomorrow.

From Thursday on, mid-level moisture will see a slight decrease
areawide. However, with ridging remaining overhead, daily chances
for thunderstorms will continue across much of the state and favor
terrain as steering flow aloft gradually weakens. The forecast
becomes somewhat muddied as we enter the weekend with global suites
continuing to disagree on moisture scouring, though the broader
pattern in place continues to support at least some continuation of
the monsoonal pattern into at least Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION...

KSLC...Monsoonal pattern continues. Outside of precipitation
influences, winds will favor a diurnally normal pattern. Gusty and
erratic outflow winds will be especially possible near
thunderstorms, with more modestly gusty conditions with showers.
There will be around a 30-50% chance of thunderstorms through 03Z
Wed, with shower activity becoming more likely thereafter into the
night. Thunderstorm chances then increase late morning through
Wednesday afternoon and evening. VFR conditions favored to persist,
but any heavier cell over the terminal may result in brief periods
of reduced CIGS/VIS.

REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...An active weather pattern will
persist as monsoonal moisture remains. Thunderstorm chances will be
highest through 03Z Wed, with activity becoming more scattered
overnight into the day. Area wide thunderstorm activity then will
begin to once again increase in coverage late morning on through Wed
evening. This activity will bring periods of heavy rainfall,
lightning, gusty and erratic outflow winds, and potentially small
hail. Outside of precipitation and outflow influences, winds at area
terminals will favor a diurnally normal pattern and direction. VFR
conditions are also favored to generally prevail, but any stronger
cell directly atop a terminal will bring potential for periods of
reduced CIGS/VIS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER, Issued 116 PM MDT Tue Jul 21 2026...
Monsoonal moisture remains in place throughout UT
increasing humidities and chances for showers / thunderstorms across
the state, helping moderating fire weather conditions statewide.
Chances for showers and thunderstorms see a notable uptick across
the entirety of the state today as a stronger monsoonal push arrives
this afternoon. Expect showers and thunderstorms to develop along
higher terrain parallel to I-15 each afternoon over the next several
days around 1200-1400 with gusty outflow winds, heavy rainfall, and
lightning. Some storms this afternoon, particularly across northwest
UT and southeast UT may feature severe wind gusts in excess of
58mph. Winds will generally remain light terrain driven
/ diurnal over the next several days other than thunderstorm
influenced winds and gusts.
&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...Flood Watch until 3 AM MDT Wednesday for UTZ113-115>131.

WY...None.
&&

PUBLIC...Worster
AVIATION...Warthen
FIRE WEATHER...Worster

For more information from NOAA's National Weather Service visit...
http://weather.gov/saltlakecity

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT
556 PM MDT Tue Jul 21 2026

WYZ021-220030-
Southwest Wyoming WY-
556 PM MDT Tue Jul 21 2026

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southwestern Uinta
County through 630 PM MDT
...

At 556 PM MDT, strong outflow winds from a decaying thunderstorm
were located southeast of Evanston, moving north at 10 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Evanston, Robertson, Ragen, Millburne, Fort Bridger, Almy, Altamont,
Piedmont, and Leroy.

This includes Interstate 80 in Wyoming between mile markers 1 and 36.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 4105 11045 4112 11104 4140 11104 4138 11037
TIME...MOT...LOC 2356Z 183DEG 9KT 4111 11074

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

BW

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT
611 PM MDT Tue Jul 21 2026

UTZ101-102-106-111-115-116-220100-
Western Millard and Juab Counties UT-Utah Valley UT-
Tooele and Rush Valleys UT-Great Salt Lake Desert and Mountains UT-
Eastern Juab/Millard Counties UT-Wasatch Mountains South of I-80 UT-
611 PM MDT Tue Jul 21 2026

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northeastern Juab,
southwestern Utah and southeastern Tooele Counties through 700 PM MDT
...

At 610 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a cluster of strong
thunderstorm along a line extending from Santaquin to Vernon, moving
north at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Provo, Payson, Orem, Eagle Mountain, Santaquin, Elk Ridge, Rocky
Ridge, Cedar Fort, Vernon, Vineyard, Ophir, Lake Shore, Tooele Army
Depot South, Benjamin, Spring Lake, Utah Lake, West Mountain,
Elberta, Palmyra, and Saratoga Springs.

This includes the following highways...
 Interstate 15 between mile markers 236 and 253, and between mile
markers 269 and 272.
 US Route 6 between mile markers 135 and 160.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3983 11168 3993 11250 4042 11269 4032 11172
TIME...MOT...LOC 0010Z 163DEG 22KT 3995 11197

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

BW

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT
639 PM MDT Tue Jul 21 2026

UTZ101-115-220130-
Western Millard and Juab Counties UT-
Great Salt Lake Desert and Mountains UT-
639 PM MDT Tue Jul 21 2026

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northwestern Juab
and southwestern Tooele Counties through 730 PM MDT
...

At 639 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 9
miles southwest of Fish Springs Wildlife Refuge, moving northwest at
15 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Fish Springs Wildlife Refuge, Dugway Proving Ground Test Range, and
Callao.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3976 11304 3965 11367 4017 11406 4038 11312
TIME...MOT...LOC 0039Z 146DEG 13KT 3980 11354

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

BW

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT
648 PM MDT Tue Jul 21 2026

UTZ101-102-105-106-220130-
Salt Lake Valley UT-Utah Valley UT-Tooele and Rush Valleys UT-
Great Salt Lake Desert and Mountains UT-
648 PM MDT Tue Jul 21 2026

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southwestern Salt
Lake, west central Utah and east central Tooele Counties through 730
PM MDT
...

At 648 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Ophir, or 9 miles southeast of Tooele, moving north at 10 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Salt Lake City, West Valley City, Tooele, Grantsville, West Jordan,
South Jordan, Lehi, Riverton, Herriman, Eagle Mountain, Stansbury
Park, Bluffdale, Cedar Fort, Ophir, Camp Williams, Tooele Army Depot,
Magna, Oquirrh, Bingham Canyon Mine, and Kearns.

This includes Interstate 80 in Utah between mile markers 78 and 111.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 4030 11190 4034 11246 4074 11267 4079 11207
TIME...MOT...LOC 0048Z 167DEG 9KT 4042 11223

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

BW

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT
709 PM MDT Tue Jul 21 2026

UTZ125-130-131-220145-
Western Canyonlands UT-Southern Mountains UT-
Glen Canyon Recreation Area/Lake Powell UT-
709 PM MDT Tue Jul 21 2026

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northeastern
Garfield, southeastern Wayne and northeastern San Juan Counties
through 745 PM MDT
...

At 708 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 7
miles southeast of Hite Marina, or 44 miles southeast of Hanksville,
moving northwest at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Hite Marina.

This storm will be capable of producing strong gusty winds on Lake
Powell near Hite Marina. This will lead to a sudden increase in
waves and very choppy waters which will result in hazardous boating
conditions. Boaters are urged to seek safe harbor if possible.

This includes the following highways...
 Utah Route 95 between mile markers 21 and 54.
 Utah Route 276 between mile markers 0 and 17.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3794 11018 3791 11017 3790 11019 3789 11017
      3786 11018 3785 11034 3778 11034 3777 11038
      3768 11039 3792 11085 3821 11045 3796 11015
TIME...MOT...LOC 0108Z 123DEG 27KT 3781 11031

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

BW

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT
721 PM MDT Tue Jul 21 2026

UTZ107-108-110-220200-
Wasatch Back UT-Wasatch Mountains I-80 North UT-
Cache Valley/Utah Portion UT-
721 PM MDT Tue Jul 21 2026

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northeastern Weber,
southeastern Cache and west central Morgan Counties through 800 PM
MDT
...

At 720 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 11
miles east of North Ogden moving north at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Wellsville, Paradise, Huntsville, Nordic Valley, Causey Reservoir,
Pineview Reservoir, Eden, Powder Mountain, Avon, and Liberty.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 4118 11155 4121 11181 4161 11193 4160 11148
TIME...MOT...LOC 0120Z 178DEG 19KT 4129 11174

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

BW