Severe Thunderstorm Warning 65, NWS Salt Lake City, UT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT
1231 PM MDT Thu Aug 13 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Monsoonal moisture looks to bring daily chances for showers and
thunderstorms across much of UT through Friday before drying out
this weekend.

- A flash flood threat exists across southwest UT and the central UT
mountains this afternoon. Confidence is highest regarding impacts
across southwest UT.

- A severe weather threat exists across northern UT today with
damaging winds (>58mph) as the primary threat.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Troughing strengthens across much of the West Coast
today as ridging weakens somewhat across the southwest today
enabling another monsoonal moisture push this afternoon. This will
result in a flash flood threat across southwestern UT and portions
of central UT this afternoon, as well as a severe weather threat
across northern UT, western UT, and extreme southwestern UT.
Following todays threat, conditions look to dry out through the
weekend, potentially into midweek next week.

An H5 trough situated over the PNW continues to deepen this
afternoon with multiple shortwave perturbations progressing SW to NE
across the great basin will provide ascent for multiple rounds of
scattered showers and thunderstorms this afternoon across UT.
Currently across southwestern UT, leftover subsidence from earlier
thunderstorms this morning has resulted in a convective lull which
is expected to last through around noon-2pm MT this afternoon as a
deepening shortwave pushes into the state with flow enhancing aloft.
The flooding threat is forecast to continue to increase with these
storms through the afternoon as PWATs continue to increase,
characterized by values in excess of 1.2", perhaps higher as CAM
guidance has not handled this well today (i.e. recent Dugway
sounding characterized by 1.3" PWATs in the West Desert), indicating
that values may actually be higher across SW UT. Additionally,
training storms may result in rather high rainfall rates reaching
and/or exceeding 0.5"/hr. This raises concern for recent burn scars,
such as Cottonwood, Forsyth, Monroe Canyon, France Canyon, Silver
King, and the new Widemouth 2 burn scar.

Further north, showers are ongoing across much of northern UT
spurred by WAA in the midlevels. These showers will continue to
dissipate through the morning, with stronger storms expected to form
after 4pm MT as the shortwave impulse deepens with a 30kt H5 jet
developing overhead. Strong upper diffluence is forecast to develop
with perhaps multiple 50kt jet streaks developing overhead around
the time of CI, resulting in EBWD values from 30-40kts this
afternoon supporting the potential for a couple supercells this
afternoon. The primary threat with these thunderstorms are severe
wind gusts in excess of 58mph, particularly if they can root
effectively within the boundary layer this afternoon. Some
uncertainty regarding this exists due to persistent cloud cover,
though diurnal heating with current cloud breaks supports some
airmass recovery this afternoon in the midst of dewpoints in the
upper 50s to low 60s. Lastly, this threat is enhanced as the early
morning convection has left behind a few different outflow
boundaries, in particular north of the airport toward the bountiful
area as well as another potentially closer to the ID border. This
will locally enhance vorticity, and with daytime heating expected to
increase MLCAPE to at least 150J/kg, support some stronger and
potentially longer-lived storms developing.

With the ridge pushing east and dry air advecting in tomorrow with
the aforementioned trough pushing in, PoPs decrease somewhat
tomorrow afternoon statewide. The flash flood threat exists across
far southwest UT once again as the moisture reservoir of higher
PWATs remains in place, though precip will begin to favor higher
terrain otherwise. Into this weekend through potentially midweek
next week, mid-level moisture will remain in place as the ridge
continues sliding east favoring terrain-driven thunderstorms and a
lower-elevation drying trend. Ensemble guidance continues to push
back the true return to monsoonal moisture, potentially after
Wednesday next week.

&&

.AVIATION, Issued 1230 PM MDT Thu Aug 13 2026...
KSLC, Issued 1230 PM MDT Thu Aug 13 2026...
Watching for the development of thunderstorms
around the terminal this evening, with storm motion from southwest
to northeast. These storms could drive some gusty and erratic winds,
with the peak gusts potentially pushing 45 kts. Most likely timing
remains 23-01Z though could see activity as early as 19Z and persist
as late as 03Z. Storms directly overhead the terminal have the
potential to produce significant heavy rainfall. A currently very
low probability of overnight storms between 06-10Z exists.

REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...Showers and thunderstorms
across northern Utah and southwest Wyoming persist, with recent
observations indicating these cells are producing very heavy
rainfall and gusty winds. There is a 5-10% chance of wind gusts in
excess of 58 mph near thunderstorms this evening. For southern Utah,
a lesser wind potential exists with heavy rain, low ceilings, and
reduced visibility (MVFR to IFR) in these rain shafts the primary
threat.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A monsoonal surge will bring showers and
thunderstorms with the potential for severe wind gusts (>58mph) to
much of UT today as well as the potential for flash flooding
across southwestern and central UT. Both severe and flash flooding
threats taper off somewhat tomorrow, though afternoon
thunderstorms capable of heavy rain and gusty and erratic outflow
winds are expected. Humidities will begin to decrease heading into
next week with lower elevation locations potentially dropping
below 20% starting Monday as we continue to dry out. A return to
monsoonal moisture is possible following midweek, though this
remains uncertain at this time and the drying trend remains
somewhat favored through the long term.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...Flood Watch through Friday morning for UTZ116-117-122>129.

WY...None.
&&

PUBLIC...Worster
AVIATION...Wessler
FIRE WEATHER...Worster

For more information from NOAA's National Weather Service visit...
http://weather.gov/saltlakecity

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT
248 PM MDT Thu Aug 13 2026

UTZ123-124-128-132130-
South Central Utah UT-Zion National Park UT-
Lower Washington County UT-
248 PM MDT Thu Aug 13 2026

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of southeastern
Washington County through 330 PM MDT
...

At 248 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Hurricane to near Apple Valley. Movement
was northeast at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Zion National Park, Hurricane, La Verkin, Apple Valley, Toquerville,
Virgin, Springdale, Rockville, and Pintura.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3710 11333 3735 11327 3736 11290 3710 11301
TIME...MOT...LOC 2048Z 205DEG 15KT 3712 11329 3712 11303

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

JCW

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT
358 PM MDT Thu Aug 13 2026

UTZ101-132245-
Great Salt Lake Desert and Mountains UT-
358 PM MDT Thu Aug 13 2026

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of southwestern Tooele
County through 445 PM MDT
...

At 358 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 6 miles west of Utah Test and Training Range
South to 7 miles north of Ibapah. Movement was northeast at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Utah Test and Training Range South and Ibapah.

This includes Interstate 80 in Utah between mile markers 24 and 28.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 4052 11405 4076 11354 4059 11331 4014 11351
      3998 11404
TIME...MOT...LOC 2158Z 218DEG 19KT 4049 11368 4014 11403

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

JCW

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT
436 PM MDT Thu Aug 13 2026

UTZ101-115-132315-
Western Millard and Juab Counties UT-
Great Salt Lake Desert and Mountains UT-
436 PM MDT Thu Aug 13 2026

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of northwestern Juab and
southwestern Tooele Counties through 515 PM MDT
...

At 436 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 14 miles southwest of Utah Test and Training
Range South to 11 miles northwest of Partoun. Movement was northeast
at 40 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Dugway Proving Ground Test Range, Utah Test and Training Range South,
Knolls, Clive, Ibapah, Fish Springs Wildlife Refuge, Callao, and
Trout Creek.

This includes Interstate 80 in Utah between mile markers 30 and 53.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3984 11404 3998 11405 4021 11373 4076 11347
      4076 11303 4001 11307 3961 11404 3984 11406
TIME...MOT...LOC 2236Z 222DEG 36KT 4033 11373 3972 11409

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

JCW