Severe Thunderstorm Warning 5, NWS Salt Lake City, UT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT
1111 AM MDT Sat Apr 11 2026

.UPDATE...Quick update AFD today due to widespread convection
impacting the region.

Looking at the current mesoanalysis, SBCAPE values have increased
through the morning, averaging 500-1000 J/kg based on the latest
mesoanalysis. Deep layer shear is more than sufficient...with a
broad area of 0-6KM shear in excess of 40-50 kts across the
Beehive State. A dry slot will shift north and east with time,
clearing convection across southern Utah by late afternoon.

Main threats today are small hail (less than 5% chance of hail in
quarter size or larger), strong winds in excess of 58 mph with
thunderstorms (5-10% chance across northern and eastern Utah) and
localized flash flooding across portions of south central and
southeastern Utah. The most at risk locations for flash flooding
include Capitol Reef National Park, the Grand Staircase National
Monument, the San Rafael Swell, western Canyonlands and Glen
Canyon National Recreation Area.

The threat of flash flooding will end across southern Utah by 4-5
PM. The threat for organized convection across northern Utah,
Uinta County, WY and eastern Utah will diminish after 5 PM.

Ahead of cold front crossing the region Sunday, expect a greater
than 70% chance of wind gusts in excess of 45 mph across
southwestern and west central Utah, the Sevier Valley and Castle
Country. These areas will likely need wind advisories with this
package.

Key messages and the aviation AFD are updated. The previous AFD
follows for the remainder.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A marginal risk for severe thunderstorms (5-10% chance of wind
  gusts in excess 58 mph) is outlooked for portions of northern
  and eastern Utah this afternoon and evening.

- Wind gusts in excess of 45 mph will occur across southwest and
  west central Utah, the Sevier Valley and Castle Country Sunday
  afternoon and evening.

- A storm system will bring unsettled conditions Sunday into
  Tuesday with periods of valley rain and accumulating mountain
  snow. The heaviest mountain snow is expected Monday into
  Tuesday.

- Freezing conditions will occur in the central and southern
  valleys Tuesday night into Wednesday morning and across most
  valleys including the Wasatch Front Thursday night into Friday
  morning.

&&

.DISCUSSION (Previous, issued at 1002 PM 04/10)...A broad storm
system is moving onshore along the California coast this evening,
putting Utah and southwest Wyoming under a breezy southwest flow
aloft. This flow is drawing enough moisture northward for the
development of scattered showers and thunderstorms early today,
with many of these storms producing gusty winds, some in excess of
40 mph. A few light showers remain and will continue to dissipate
into the overnight hours.

The California trough is on track to weaken significantly as it
moves onshore, eventually crossing northern Utah Saturday
afternoon and evening. The flow aloft is no longer expected to
increase much with the passage of the trough, so the potential for
wind gusts in excess of 40 mph has dropped to the 20 to 30 percent
range. While it would not be surprising to see isolated gusts in
excess of 40 mph, the areal extent and anticipated duration of
these winds would not warrant a Wind Advisory. Associated showers
and storms will be a bit more widespread compared to the last
couple of days, but the best coverage will be confined to areas
east of I-15, primarily over northern Utah. Still, any storms that
move over rain sensitive areas could bring the threat of flash
flooding.

As the weakening system exits the forecast area, another broad low
will approach the California coast. Guidance appears to be
converging on a solution for this low that would slowly track it
across the Great Basin and eventually into Utah and southwest
Wyoming Sunday into early Tuesday. There is high confidence that
this will bring substantial cooling to the area, with highs below
seasonal normals by Monday. The storm and associated cold front
will also bring unsettled conditions and the potential for
accumulating mountain snow, though totals overall look a bit less
impressive than they have the past couple of days. This is because
the system ultimately becomes a bit moisture starved and more
guidance is showing the system weakening somewhat as it moves
through, though not to the extent of the first system.

A drier zonal flow is expected to develop for the midweek period,
but long range guidance is showing the potential for a colder
storm system impacting the area by late in the work week, bringing
a chance of snow for most valleys as well as the mountains for day
seven.

&&

.AVIATION (Updated as of 1110 AM 4/11)...KSLC...VFR conditions
will prevail with some isolated thunderstorms present into the
afternoon hours. These thunderstorms will cause a brief drop into
MVFR as they pass with increased and more variable wind speeds.
Prevailing winds will be from a southerly direction before
shifting this afternoon. This shift will be a gradual shift to the
southwest then west with continued gusty winds. Winds will calm
overnight, before picking up again along a diurnal trend tomorrow.
More shower and thunderstorm chances again tomorrow, but later in
the day than what we have seen today.

.REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...Broadly VFR with isolated
areas of thunderstorms causing brief drops into MVFR this
afternoon into early evening. Winds will be more southwesterly
across southern Utah with more of a westerly component to the
north. Gusty synoptic winds through the day today falling
overnight along the usual diurnal curve. Winds pick up again
tomorrow from the south. More shower and thunderstorm chances on
Sunday, but generally later in the day than we have seen today.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...None.
WY...None.
&&

Kruse/Carletta

For more information from NOAA's National Weather Service visit...
http://weather.gov/saltlakecity

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT
312 PM MDT Sat Apr 11 2026

UTZ108-110>112-112145-
Wasatch Back UT-Western Uinta Mountains UT-Wasatch Mountains I-
80 North UT-Wasatch Mountains South of I-80 UT-
312 PM MDT Sat Apr 11 2026

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of south central Morgan
and west central Summit Counties through 345 PM MDT
...

At 312 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
North Snyderville Basin, or 9 miles southwest of Coalville, moving
northeast at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Coalville, Summit Park, Oakley, East Canyon State Park, Wanship,
South Snyderville Basin, North Snyderville Basin, Hoytsville, Echo,
Parleys Summit, Echo Reservoir, Kimball Junction, Rockport State
Park, and Snyderville.

This includes the following highways...
 Interstate 80 in Utah between mile markers 139 and 169.
 US Route 40 between mile markers 0 and 3.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 4067 11157 4077 11165 4090 11163 4108 11118
      4082 11100
TIME...MOT...LOC 2112Z 239DEG 28KT 4082 11153

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

STW

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT
338 PM MDT Sat Apr 11 2026

UTZ108>110-112-WYZ021-112230-
Wasatch Back UT-Bear Lake and Bear River Valley UT-
Western Uinta Mountains UT-Wasatch Mountains I-80 North UT-
Southwest Wyoming WY-
338 PM MDT Sat Apr 11 2026

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of southeastern Rich,
east central Morgan, northwestern Summit and western Uinta Counties
through 430 PM MDT
...

At 337 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 11 miles south of Woodruff to 11 miles
southwest of Evanston to near Coalville. Movement was northeast at 30
mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Evanston, Ragen, Wahsatch, Hoytsville, Castle Rock, Almy, Altamont,
Piedmont, and Leroy.

This includes the following highways...
 Interstate 80 in Wyoming between mile markers 1 and 25.
 Interstate 80 in Utah between mile markers 158 and 159, and between
mile markers 176 and 196.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 4158 11060 4144 11056 4117 11061 4101 11078
      4084 11140 4116 11127 4144 11131 4158 11097
TIME...MOT...LOC 2137Z 242DEG 28KT 4136 11119 4117 11115 4094 11129

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

STW

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