Severe Thunderstorm Warning 31, NWS Salt Lake City, UT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT
507 AM MDT Thu Jun 25 2026

.KEY MESSAGES

- Scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop again Thursday
  afternoon and evening across the state. Localized gusty outflow
  winds in excess of 45 mph can be expected with some of the
  storms.

- Widespread and significant critical fire weather conditions are
  expected Friday and Saturday as southwesterly winds near 40-50
  mph will combine with hot and dry conditions.

- A strong cold front will cross the region later Saturday into
  Sunday bringing colder temperatures and the potential for
  patchy frost for the Cache Valley and Wasatch Back.

&&

.DISCUSSION, Issued 1128 PM MDT Wed Jun 24 2026...
A weak shortwave disturbance continues to ripple
through Utah tonight. Moisture that spread into the area earlier
today ahead of this disturbance aided in the development of
widespread showers and thunderstorms across the area today.
Isolated to scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will
continue through late tonight before waning early morning.

Lingering moisture on Thursday will once again allow for
scattered convection to develop again during the afternoon and
evening hours. Despite increased moisture in the lower levels,
hi-res models are still indicating a threat of strong and gusty
outflow winds with some of the storms. Additionally, cannot rule
out the threat of localized heavy rain across southeast and east-
central Utah where PWATs will be higher, which could bring a
threat of flash flooding should the stronger cells move into the
wrong area.

A drier airmass will then spread into the area for Friday, this as
a trough strengthens into the PacNW. Southwest winds will increase
over Utah ahead of this trough, with gusts in excess of 40 mph
especially in portions of western and southern Utah. These winds,
combined with drier conditions, will result in higher-end critical
fire weather conditions. Red Flag Warnings are in effect. Later
shifts may need to consider the need for Wind Advisories as well.
After above normal temperatures for much of this week, a cold
front crossing northern Utah Friday late afternoon to Friday night
will bring temperatures down on Saturday, mainly for northern and
west-central Utah.

As trailing energy continues to carve into the trough, southerly
flow will again strengthen again on Saturday, especially across
southern and central Utah. This will continue to bring critical
fire weather conditions to the area. Some higher elevation sites
may see fire weather conditions become moderated a bit due to
slightly higher humidities, however. A stronger cold front is
expected to push into the area Saturday night into Sunday. The
critical fire weather conditions will decrease behind the cold
front, but southeast Utah will remain ahead of the front through
much of the afternoon and as such, may maintain critical fire
weather conditions.

The associated airmass will be quite cold for this time of year,
with afternoon max temperatures on Sunday expected to run 20
degrees below normal across the north to 10 degrees below normal
across the south, and some northern valleys may fail to even reach
70 degrees. Some precipitation is expected to develop across
northern Utah behind the front, but as skies clear out Sunday
night, patchy frost may be possible, particularly in the Cache
Valley and Wasatch Back.

A general southwest flow will follow through at least the first
half of next week. This will allow temperatures to gradually trend
warmer again. However, some localized critical fire weather
conditions may remain a possibility, especially across the eastern
valleys.

&&

.AVIATION, Issued 1128 PM MDT Wed Jun 24 2026...
Winds will remain out of the southeast overnight,
gradually decreasing in magnitude over the next few hours and
beginning to increase again after 15z. While the typical diurnal
wind shift is expected around ~19-20z, scattered showers and
thunderstorms developing after 20z will likely cause gusty and
erratic outflow winds at times through the afternoon. Wildfire
smoke will continue to produce slantwise VIS reductions at times.

REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...Showers and a few rumbles of
thunder will continue to dwindle through the overnight hours, likely
ending by 12z statewide. While winds will be largely light and
terrain-driven overnight, showers may produce brief periods of more
erratic winds. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop once
again after 19z across Utah and southwest Wyoming, and will be
capable of producing gusty and erratic outflow winds in excess of 40-
50kts. Wildfire smoke will continue to produce slantwise VIS
reductions, particularly across central/eastern Utah.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Drier air will start to filter into Utah from the
west today. However, lingering moisture and instability will bring
another round of scattered showers and thunderstorms, particularly
for areas east of I-15. Wetting rains will be more likely today,
with a localized flash flood threat over southeast Utah. By
Friday, conditions will be very dry across the area with minimum
relative humidity values in the upper single digits to low teens.
Additionally, southwest winds will become strong ahead of an
approaching cold front. Thus, there is high confidence in
widespread higher end critical fire weather conditions on Friday,
with these conditions continuing into Saturday. A strong cold
front will follow Saturday night into Sunday, bringing highs up to
20F below seasonal normals with a decrease in winds and a modest
increase in relative humidity. Still, there is some possibility of
critical fire weather conditions continuing for Sunday over
southeast Utah.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...Red Flag Warning from noon Friday to midnight MDT Saturday night
     for UTZ478-482-484-488-489-492-495-497.

     Red Flag Warning from noon Friday to 3 AM MDT Sunday for UTZ493-
     494-496-498.

WY...None.
&&

PUBLIC...Cheng
AVIATION...Cunningham
FIRE WEATHER...Traphagan

For more information from NOAA's National Weather Service visit...
http://weather.gov/saltlakecity

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT
1136 AM MDT Thu Jun 25 2026

UTZ125>127-251815-
Upper Sevier River Valleys UT-Bryce Canyon Country UT-
Southern Mountains UT-
1136 AM MDT Thu Jun 25 2026

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of west central Garfield
and eastern Iron Counties through 1215 PM MDT
...

At 1136 AM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 12 miles northwest of Red Canyon to near
Panguitch. Movement was northeast at 10 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Panguitch, Red Canyon, and Hillsdale.

This includes the following highways...
 US Route 89 between mile markers 123 and 143.
 Utah Route 12 between mile markers 0 and 5.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3806 11230 3775 11213 3771 11246 3788 11255
TIME...MOT...LOC 1736Z 237DEG 8KT 3786 11247 3778 11242

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

JCW

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT
1141 AM MDT Thu Jun 25 2026

UTZ125-126-251815-
Upper Sevier River Valleys UT-Southern Mountains UT-
1141 AM MDT Thu Jun 25 2026

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southwestern Piute
and east central Beaver Counties through 1215 PM MDT
...

At 1141 AM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 10
miles west of Junction, moving east at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Junction, Circleville, and Kingston.

This includes US Route 89 between mile markers 160 and 172.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3819 11248 3831 11248 3837 11212 3817 11209
TIME...MOT...LOC 1741Z 255DEG 14KT 3824 11242

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

JCW

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