Severe Thunderstorm Warning 18, NWS Salt Lake City, UT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT
1219 PM MDT Wed May 13 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A slight risk (Level 2 out of 5) for severe thunderstorms is in
  place across portions of northern Utah and Uinta County, WY this
  afternoon and early this evening. There is a ~20% chance of
  wind gusts in excess of 58 mph in this area within 25 miles of a
  point and a ~10% chance of wind gust in excess of 65 mph within
  25 miles of a point between noon and 7 PM today.

- Red Flag Warnings remain in effect for portions of southwestern
  Utah this afternoon and evening due to gusty winds and very low
  relative humidity.

- Strong wind gusts up to 60 mph will occur in the wake of a cold
  front across northwestern Utah near the Raft River Mountains and
  along I-80 from Wendover to Knolls from 6 PM until about 3 AM. A
  High Wind Warning is now in effect.

- Critical fire weather conditions may return to southwest Utah
  Saturday as gusty southerly winds will combine with low
  humidities in this area once again.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Early this afternoon, weak radar returns can be
seen across portions of the state ahead of a subtle shortwave
trough. This trough is drawing in mid-level moisture from the
southwest which will interact with a separate grazing shortwave
trough crossing the Interior Northwest, resulting in the
heightened threat of severe thunderstorms this afternoon here in
Utah. This severe threat is coupled with critical fire weather
conditions developing this afternoon across southwestern Utah
given increased southwesterly flow ahead of this northern
shortwave trough and very low relative humidity (see Fire Weather
section for more details).

While the ongoing showers are fairly weak, the real threat of dry
microbursts and gusty outflow winds will start to ramp up after
noon, with the main threat likely ending by 6-7PM or so. Model
soundings suggest an inverted-V, characterized by dry air and
steep lapse rates in the low levels and mid-level moisture.
Instability is fairly limited, though still may approach up to 500
J/kg of MUCAPE in some areas, suggesting fairly shallow convection.
While the best chances for severe gusts are across northern Utah
and southwest Wyoming, there is still a sizable chance down to
I-70 in eastern Utah, with even a couple severe gusts possible
down to Lake Powell. Thunderstorms may be capable of producing
very strong winds of 50-65 mph and even up to 65-75 mph on the
higher end.

A cold front associated with the northern shortwave trough will
push through the state this evening and overnight, weakening as it
does so. Strong northwesterly winds will develop over portions of
northwest Utah in particular given an initially strong pressure
gradient, with prone areas expected to reach 60 mph...namely areas
downwind of the Raft River Mountains like Park Valley and
Rosette, and areas near Wendover. Temperatures will also cool
behind this front, with high temperatures dropping by 15 degrees
across northern Utah and 5-10 degrees across southern Utah between
today and Thursday.

Behind this system, zonal flow will develop across the area, with
largely dry, quiescent conditions expected Thursday and Friday.
Another storm system is likely to move through this weekend,
likely late Saturday into Sunday, which will bring cooler and
wetter conditions once again. While there is still plenty of
uncertainty regarding this system, models are generally in favor
of a pretty stout cold front, with chances for showers and
thunderstorms potentially both Saturday and Sunday, as well as
freezing temperatures for some valleys by Monday morning.

&&

.AVIATION...KSLC...Southerly winds will remain gusty through the
early afternoon. Scattered high- based thunderstorms are expected to
develop after 19Z and continue through 00-01Z this evening. Strong
microburst winds will occur with these high-based thunderstorms.
There is a 20% chance of wind gusts in excess of 58 mph will occur
within 25 miles of the terminal and a 10% chance wind gusts will
exceed 65 mph with 25 miles of the terminal between 21-00Z today.
Small hail will also occur with strong thunderstorms. Postfrontal
north winds are expected to arrive at the terminal between 03-04z,
with a 25% probability of gusts exceeding 45 mph. Winds will likely
remain north through the TAF period, with a 20% chance of a brief
southerly window around 12z.

.REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...Southerly winds will
persist across most terminals this afternoon, with gusts up to 40
mph from gradient winds. High-based showers and thunderstorms will
develop across the northern half of Utah after 19Z. There is a 20%
chance of wind gusts in excess of 58 mph will occur within 25 miles
terminals from roughly Utah County north and a 10% chance wind gusts
will exceed 65 mph with 25 miles of terminals from Utah County north
between 21-00Z today. A strong but dry cold front will bring a
marked wind shift to the northwest for KENV between 01-03Z, with
winds shifting across the remainder of northern Utah terminals after
03Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Breezy southwesterly winds will be in place across
the state this afternoon as a storm system approaches from the
northwest. Gusts outside of any thunderstorms may reach up to 40
mph this evening, particularly across southwestern Utah where Red
Flag Warnings are in place for fire weather zones 495, 496, and
497. Minimum humidities this afternoon will be in the single
digits, producing critical fire weather conditions. Across
primarily northern and eastern Utah, high-based showers and
thunderstorms will be capable of producing very strong outflow
winds, with a 15-20% chance of wind gusts exceeding 58 mph
primarily Utah county northward.

A dry cold front will push into northwestern Utah this evening,
gradually weakening and shifting across the state. Strong
northwest winds up to 60 mph will occur behind this front across
portions of northwest Utah, with gusts up to 40-50 mph possible
across the rest of northern Utah.

Temperatures will be cooler and conditions will be much quieter
tomorrow and Friday. Another storm system is expected to track
across the area late Saturday into Sunday, with another chance for
critical fire weather conditions. However, chances for actual
precipitation and not just virga are higher with this system,
particularly on Sunday as a cold front moves through the region.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...High Wind Warning from 6 PM this evening to 3 AM MDT Thursday
     for UTZ101.

     Red Flag Warning until 9 PM MDT this evening for UTZ495>497.

WY...None.
&&

Cunningham/Verzella

For more information from NOAA's National Weather Service visit...
http://weather.gov/saltlakecity

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