Severe Thunderstorm Warning 112, NWS Salt Lake City, UT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT
208 PM MDT Sun Aug 30 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A marginal risk (level 1/5) is outlooked for strong to severe
  thunderstorms across portions of central and eastern Utah this
  afternoon and evening. There is a 5% chance of wind gusts in
  excess of 58 mph and hail larger than quarters in this area.

- A slight risk (level 2/4) remains in effect for excessive
  rainfall across much of Utah through tonight.

- A moderate risk (level 3/4) is now in effect for excessive
  rainfall across portions of eastern and southern Utah Monday.

- A flood watch for flash flooding remains in effect across much
  of central and southern Utah through Monday evening. The threat
  of flooding is highest across slot canyons, normally dry washes,
  slick rock areas, recent burn scars as well as areas that have
  already received very heavy rainfall this weekend including the
  Sanpete and Sevier Valleys, Castle Country, and the San Rafael
  Swell.

- There is an increasing probability that deep moisture associated
  with a tropical cyclone in the Eastern Pacific will spread
  northward into Utah ahead of a Pacific disturbance Friday into
  next weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Another day of deep moisture across the region will
bring an elevated threat of flash flooding. While most of the
region is seeing conditions favorable for heavy rain associated
with thunderstorms, the highest chance will continue across
eastern and southern Utah. Some areas, including Castle Country,
the Sevier and Sanpete Valleys, the San Rafael Swell and most of
the Grand Staircase area have already had one day of heavy rain
and flooding. With saturated soils, these areas will be even more
prone to flooding this afternoon and evening.

As far as Monday, PW anomalies at or above 97-99 percentile will
shift into southern and eastern Utah. This...combined with
widespread large scale ascent, significant deep layer shear and
sufficient instability will support widespread thunderstorms with
very heavy rain. Average return intervals (ARI) for precipitation
are exceeding 10-20 years across much of eastern and southern
Utah, with localized areas seeing maximum ARIs in excess of 50
years. Rainfall rates in previous days have exceeded 0.30 inches
in 10 minutes in stronger thunderstorms. Given this, coordinated
with the Weather Prediction Center to introduce a moderate risk
within the Excessive Rainfall Outlook (ERO) for Monday. This will
be only the second time WFO SLC has been included in a day 2
moderate risk ERO.

Much drier conditions will work into the region in the wake of the
shortwave trough that spurred Monday's convection as drier
southwest flow filters into the area. That said...this break from
flash flooding is short as a number of ensemble members are
suggesting tropical moisture from an eastern Pacific tropical
cyclone approaching the Baja California area may shift into Utah
ahead of another trough by Friday into Saturday. Something to
monitor.

&&

.AVIATION...

KSLC...Primarily VFR conditions are expected to persist through the
TAF period. Confidence regarding thunderstorms remaining away from
the terminal this afternoon has increased, resulting in the removal
of the PROB30. Otherwise, diurnal wind shifts are expected with the
next wind shift expected to occur around 19z as northwest winds push
into the area.

REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...Showers and thunderstorms with
gusty outflows are expected this afternoon at KPVU, KHCR, and KCDC
from 20-24z, though some may linger a couple hours later. Otherwise,
diurnal flows will prevail at all other sites with VFR conditions
persisting.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...An ongoing monsoon surge will continue to bring
the threat of thunderstorms with strong winds, hail and very heavy
rain today. A further increase in moisture will bring an even
higher threat of heavy rain Monday, especially across southern and
eastern Utah.

A drying trend will begin Tuesday, with humidities falling to
near critical levels across western Utah by Wednesday. Friday into
the weekend, moisture will again shift into the region with
increasing humidities and the threat of heavy rainfall once again.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...Flood Watch through Monday evening for UTZ116>121-123>131.

WY...None.
&&

Kruse/Worster

For more information from NOAA's National Weather Service visit...
http://weather.gov/saltlakecity

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>