Red Flag Warning 7, NWS Salt Lake City, UT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT
500 AM MDT Sat Jun 13 2026

.KEY MESSAGES, Issued 1041 PM MDT Fri Jun 12 2026...

- Increasing moisture over southern Utah will bring a round of
  high based showers and dry thunderstorms Saturday afternoon. By
  Sunday this moisture will allow for a better chance of showers
  and thunderstorms capable of wetting rainfall across southern
  Utah, with isolated high based showers and dry thunderstorms
  further north.

- Temperatures will warm steadily to start the upcoming week,
  bringing a return to hot and very dry conditions, with
  widespread valley HeatRisk values in the moderate range by the
  middle of the week.

- Gusty northwest winds combined with these hot and very dry
  conditions will bring a threat for critical fire weather across
  much of the area during the middle portion of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION, Issued 1041 PM MDT Fri Jun 12 2026...
A broad ridge is centered off the Pacific coast this
evening, with a Canadian trough moving over the front of the ridge
into Idaho and Montana. This is bringing a southerly component to
the flow over southern Utah, which is allowing moisture to draw
northward. Satellite derived PW values, which were in the 0.2 to
0.4 inch range this morning, are now predominately in the 0.5 to
0.6 inch range over southern Utah, indicating that moisture is
starting to move in. By tomorrow afternoon, HREF mean PW values
are above 0.7 inch for much of southern Utah, and in excess of 0.8
inch near the Utah/Arizona border.

Given how dry conditions have been over the past several days,
lower levels will initially remain dry as the moisture moves into
the mid and upper levels. By the afternoon, this moisture will
combine with instability from daytime heating to produce scattered
high based showers and thunderstorms over southern Utah, with
little if any rainfall hitting the ground from the storms, this
increases the potential for dry lightning and gusty outflow winds.
Confidence remains relatively low regarding the coverage of
potential dry lightning, so have made no changes to the Fire
Weather Watch at this time. By Saturday evening, anticipating the
moisture will start to make its way into the lower levels as well,
with some of the hi-res guidance continuing to indicate another
round of convection spreading out from Nevada at this time into
southwest Utah, bringing a small potential for flash flooding.

The Canadian trough is expected to graze northeast Utah and
southwest Wyoming during the day Sunday, though guidance is
continuing to track farther east with the track of this system,
which would limit impacts for the forecast area. The resultant
northwest flow for northern and central Utah with the associated
boundary would act to keep the moisture from southern Utah from
spreading into northern Utah. By this time, with moisture in the
lower levels, the potential for isolated flash flooding becomes
more widespread over southern Utah.

As that trough exits, there is high confidence that the Pacific
ridge will build eastward into the Great Basin, bringing the
return of dry and increasingly hot conditions to Utah and
southwest Wyoming. By midweek, anticipating maxes up to 15F above
seasonal normals, resulting in orange (moderate) HeatRisk values
for most Utah valleys. Winds will be generally light to start the
week, but with some guidance showing another trough moving over
the top of the ridge for the latter half of next week, the
resultant increase in northwest flow could produce gusty enough
winds to increase fire danger once again.

&&

.AVIATION, Issued 1041 PM MDT Fri Jun 12 2026...
KSLC, Issued 1041 PM MDT Fri Jun 12 2026...
Southerly flow will gradually establish itself
over the next hour or two, though a few instances of variable winds
may occur. An earlier shift to northwest is expected around 14-16z
this morning with gusts up to 20kts after 16z. Otherwise, VFR
conditions persist at the KSLC terminal.

.REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...VFR conditions will persist
across all terminals with breezy afternoon winds. Dry thunderstorms
are possible at KCDC and KSGU after 18z with the highest confidence
of these storms impacting the terminals residing within the 20z-02z
timeframe.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Warm and dry conditions will continue today for
northern and central Utah with gusty northwest winds this
afternoon across Castle Country and the western Uinta Basin. This
will pair with RH in the low teens to upper single digits
resulting in locally critical fire weather conditions. Mid and
upper level moisture will push into southern Utah this afternoon
resulting in high-based convection with threats of dry lightning
and gusty outflow winds. A Fire Weather Watch is in effect for
Zones 494, 496 and 498, with lightning coverage expected to be
more isolated further west across zones 495 and 497.

Moisture increases more across the region with slightly lower
wind gusts that will help to reduce the locally critical fire
weather conditions. Better low-level moisture across southern Utah
will increase the wetting rain chances with the afternoon
convection that develops, however lightning and gusty outflow
winds will remain.

High pressure shifts further into the Great Basin during the week
with dry and stable conditions returning. By Wednesday, a storm
passing by well to our northeast will increase northwesterly winds
across the area pairing with low relative humidity that will
increase the locally critical fire weather conditions.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...Fire Weather Watch from noon MDT today through this evening for
     UTZ494-496-498.

WY...None.
&&

PUBLIC...Traphagan
AVIATION...Worster
FIRE WEATHER...Mahan

For more information from NOAA's National Weather Service visit...
http://weather.gov/saltlakecity