Flash Flood Warning 36, NWS Salt Lake City, UT

156 
WGUS75 KSLC 211458
FFSSLC

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT
858 AM MDT Tue Jul 21 2026

UTC001-031-211508-
/O.EXP.KSLC.FF.W.0036.000000T0000Z-260721T1500Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Beaver UT-Piute UT-
858 AM MDT Tue Jul 21 2026

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR THE COTTONWOOD BURN SCAR WILL EXPIRE AT 9 
AM MDT THIS MORNING FOR WEST CENTRAL PIUTE AND EAST CENTRAL BEAVER 
COUNTIES...

The heavy rain has ended. Flooding is no longer expected to pose a 
threat. Please continue to heed remaining road closures.

&&

LAT...LON 3834 11234 3822 11237 3820 11244 3825 11251
      3826 11264 3830 11265 3834 11262 3841 11241

$$

JCW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT
433 AM MDT Tue Jul 21 2026

.KEY MESSAGES, Issued 1018 PM MDT Mon Jul 20 2026...

- Daily scattered showers and thunderstorms will persist across
  the region as a monsoonal pattern remains. Monday through Wednesday
  night will also see a pattern favorable for continuation of
  nocturnal showers and thunderstorms.

- Flash flooding will continue to remain an ongoing threat across
  much of the region. A Marginal Risk (category 1/4) highlights
  more or less all of the forecast area through Friday, with a
  Slight Risk (category 2/4) also highlighting much of the area
  Tuesday and Wednesday.

- Isolated strong wind gusts 35-55 mph and small hail will be
  possible in stronger storms, in addition to lightning and heavy
  rain.

&&

.DISCUSSION, Issued 1018 PM MDT Mon Jul 20 2026...
Synoptic pattern this evening remains quite similar to
that of previous days. A broad ridge remains extended from the
South/Central Plains on into the Four Corners region. Around the
south to western periphery of this ridge a very favorable moisture
tap remains, with widespread PWAT values in excess of 1", around
150% to 200% of climatological normal. While Monday has seen
generally less coverage of associated showers and thunderstorms,
what has formed has been aided by a slightly enhanced moist
southeast to easterly inflow, helping keep activity seemingly near
stationary despite more flow.

For tonight into Tuesday, a subtle embedded shortwave will shift
northwestward into the area through NW NM/SW CO. While daytime
heating has ceased, the mild and moisture rich environment will
continue to support modest instability on the order of 100-200
J/kg or so. With the extra synoptic support from this shortwave,
models continue to show some support for continued or renewed
nocturnal convection shifting westward through the state from
midnight through sunrise Tuesday. While activity is likely to be a
bit less organized/weaker with the more limited instability,
evening CAM guidance does suggest rainfall rates up to around 0.5"
to 0.75" per hour in what stronger cores do develop. As such,
will need continue monitor rain sensitive basins overnight. Given
the overnight timing, those in such areas should be sure to have a
way to receive weather alerts if stronger storms do develop/hold
together.

Tuesday will see this shortwave shift into Utah, and moisture
will continue to further increase with PWATs rising around the
200% to 250% of normal range. In general, this combination with
very ample moisture and increased synoptic support/flow should
support widespread scattered shower and thunderstorm development.
Models suggest as much, and depict potential for activity capable
of rainfall rates in the 1" to 1.5" per hour rate, if not possibly
more in the strongest activity that forms. The extra flow will
tend to help activity move a bit more than previous days, with the
caveat that areas of continued moist inflow will have potential
to result in backbuilding over the same area. As such, the flood
potential will once again be elevated Tuesday, especially for rain
sensitive areas such as burn scars, slot canyons, typically dry
washes, and slickrock areas. The WPC Excessive Rainfall Outlook
highlights the entire forecast region in a Marginal Risk (category
1/4), and the vast majority of Utah (generally south of the I-80
corridor) in a Slight Risk (category 2/4) of excessive rainfall.
With that, southern and central Utah will have a Flood Watch in
effect Tuesday for the potential for flash flooding. All that
said, will need to keep an eye on the overnight to early afternoon
evolution. If the nocturnal activity results in widespread
lingering cloud cover or stratiform precipitation, it could help
suppress activity Tuesday. Additionally, the abundance of moisture
could result in activity developing quick enough and widespread
enough to limit more of the individual storm potential, cloud
things over, and limit the threat. Again though, otherwise the
ingredients are in place for another day with a flash flooding
threat. Aside from the flash flood threat, the slight enhancement
to shear (around 20-30 kts) with the shortwave will give some
potential for a few stronger, longer-lived more organized storms
capable of gusty outflow winds up to around 55 mph or so as well
as small hail.

Tuesday night into early Wednesday will once again see nocturnal
showers and thunderstorms lingering, before giving way to a day
that will likely see a similar evolution to that of Tuesday. Like
Tuesday, there will also be some question of the exact evolution
just given the amount of moisture and likelihood of preceding
nocturnal activity. Provided this doesn't help limit activity,
ultimately expect a day that will once again see widespread
scattered showers and thunderstorms capable of efficient rainfall
production, posing a flash flood threat particularly to rain
sensitive basins. One interesting signal that is noted is that on
Wednesday the ECMWF Extreme Forecast Index highlights much of
northern Utah to southwest Wyoming particularly to indicate
climatologically anomalous precipitation potential, something not
noted on Tuesday. Like Tuesday, Wednesday will also see some
potential for a few stronger storms capable of strong gusty winds
and small hail, in addition to heavy rainfall and frequent
lightning.

Thursday onward will see a bit of uncertainty in the day to day
evolution, but in general the placement of the ridge will remain
favorable for periods of monsoonal moisture influx into the
region. Ensemble mean PWAT anomalies fall back generally into the
100% to 150% range, though individual members show potential for
periods of both drier and moister than that. Additionally, there
seems to be some split in the general ensemble suite, with ECMWF
members more bullish on a continuation of a more favorable
moisture tap, and GEFS members more on the drier side, though not
necessarily in a way that would fully shut down potential for
showers and thunderstorms across the entire region. For now, will
just need to keep an eye on the day to day trends, as small shifts
in the ridge and any potential gulf moisture rich inverted
troughs will result in notable shifts in where the highest
precipitation potential will be locally. Those near rain sensitive
basins or planning travel/recreation will certainly want to
continue to monitor the forecast for potential impacts.

&&

.AVIATION, Issued 1027 PM MDT Mon Jul 20 2026...

KSLC...Southeasterly winds prevail through the remainder of the
night. Nocturnal shower activity will result in periods of variable
winds at the terminal between roughly 06-11z tonight, with gusts
exceeding 25 kts possible through this period. Winds increase out of
the northwest after 18z, before convective activity developing after
20z brings more gusty and erratic winds through the remainder of the
afternoon and evening. VFR conditions prevail at the terminal,
though heavier rainfall tomorrow afternoona and evening could result
in brief MVFR conditions.

REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...There is a threat for nocturnal
showers and thunderstorms overnight across most of the airspace,
mainly between the 06-12z timeframe; this activity will be capable
of producing variable gusty winds to 30 kts for most regional
terminals overnight. Otherwise, widely scattered showers and
thunderstorms redevelop after around 19z on Tuesday, with MVFR
conditions possible for many terminals through the evening as heavy
rainfall may bring lowered CIGS/VIS at times.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Daily showers and thunderstorms will continue
through at least Friday as monsoonal moisture remains in place
across Utah. Humidity and wetting rain chances will increase
through at least Thursday, with conditions starting to slowly dry
out by the weekend. There is still plenty of uncertainty as to how
quickly conditions dry out, though models do suggest that
moisture lingers longer across southern Utah. While most showers
this week will occur during the afternoon and evening, a weak
wave will result in showers and thunderstorms persisting Tuesday
night across much of the state. Main threats with any showers this
week will include lightning, gusty outflow winds, and moderate to
heavy rainfall. Outside of any thunderstorms, winds will be
largely light and terrain-driven.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...Flood Watch from noon MDT today through late tonight for UTZ113-
     115>131.

WY...None.
&&

PUBLIC...Warthen
AVIATION...Whitlam
FIRE WEATHER...Cunningham

For more information from NOAA's National Weather Service visit...
http://weather.gov/saltlakecity

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT
1210 AM MDT Tue Jul 21 2026

UTZ125-128>131-210700-
Capitol Reef National Park and Vicinity UT-South Central Utah UT-
Western Canyonlands UT-Southern Mountains UT-
Glen Canyon Recreation Area/Lake Powell UT-
1210 AM MDT Tue Jul 21 2026

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of eastern Garfield, San
Juan and eastern Kane Counties through 100 AM MDT
...

At 1209 AM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 12 miles north of Ticaboo to 11 miles southwest
of Halls Crossing to near Rainbow Bridge South Trailhead. Movement
was west at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Halls Crossing, Bullfrog, Glen Canyon National Recreation Area,
Ticaboo, Rainbow Bridge South Trailhead, Labyrinth Canyon, Lake
Powell, and Dangling Rope Marina.

This storm will be capable of producing strong gusty winds on Lake
Powell. This will lead to a sudden increase in waves and very choppy
waters which will result in hazardous boating conditions. Boaters are
urged to seek safe harbor if possible.

This includes Utah Route 276 between mile markers 12 and 34.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3751 11129 3808 11088 3774 11037 3767 11038
      3761 11053 3745 11053 3744 11060 3744 11062
      3730 11069 3725 11059 3729 11049 3709 11056
      3708 11057 3716 11057 3719 11060 3716 11066
      3708 11068 3700 11091 3700 11132
TIME...MOT...LOC 0609Z 109DEG 27KT 3779 11068 3737 11085 3704 11091

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

JAC

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT
1239 AM MDT Tue Jul 21 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1220 AM     Tstm Wnd Gst     11 N Ticaboo            37.75N 110.65W
07/21/2026  M62 MPH          Garfield           UT   Mesonet

            Mesonet station UTELL Sr-276 At Mp 21.5 Mt.
            Ellsworth.

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT
106 AM MDT Tue Jul 21 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1220 AM     Tstm Wnd Gst     1 NNW Bullfrog          37.52N 110.73W
07/21/2026  M70 MPH          Kane               UT   Mesonet

            HADS site Bullfrog Basin Marina.

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT
159 AM MDT Tue Jul 21 2026

UTZ125>128-210845-
South Central Utah UT-Upper Sevier River Valleys UT-
Bryce Canyon Country UT-Southern Mountains UT-
159 AM MDT Tue Jul 21 2026

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of western Garfield,
southeastern Piute and southwestern Wayne Counties through 245 AM MDT
...

At 158 AM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 15
miles south of Antimony, or 20 miles northwest of Escalante, moving
west at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Panguitch, Antimony, Red Canyon, Bryce Canyon National Park, Tropic,
Hillsdale, and Rubys Inn.

This includes the following highways...
 US Route 89 between mile markers 121 and 137, and between mile
markers 143 and 150.
 Utah Route 12 between mile markers 0 and 18, and between mile
markers 40 and 54.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3801 11148 3762 11181 3772 11251 3808 11236
      3831 11182
TIME...MOT...LOC 0758Z 103DEG 30KT 3788 11194

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

JAC

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT
200 AM MDT Tue Jul 21 2026

UTZ125>128-131-210845-
South Central Utah UT-Upper Sevier River Valleys UT-
Bryce Canyon Country UT-Southern Mountains UT-
Glen Canyon Recreation Area/Lake Powell UT-
200 AM MDT Tue Jul 21 2026

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of southwestern Garfield
and western Kane Counties through 245 AM MDT
...

At 200 AM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Henrieville to 12 miles east of Kanab.
Movement was west at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Kanab, Henrieville, Hatch, Bryce Canyon National Park, Stateline CG,
Paria River Slot Canyon, The Wave, Paria Canyon, Tropic, Glendale,
Cannonville, Alton, Hillsdale, Long Valley Junction, Rubys Inn, and
Kodachrome Basin State Park.

This includes the following highways...
 US Route 89 between mile markers 11 and 76, between mile markers 89
and 90, and between mile markers 95 and 124.
 Utah Route 12 between mile markers 11 and 39.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3778 11251 3756 11161 3723 11162 3700 11179
      3700 11267
TIME...MOT...LOC 0800Z 108DEG 25KT 3760 11206 3701 11231

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

JAC

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT
317 AM MDT Tue Jul 21 2026

UTZ115>119-122-125-126-210945-
Southwest Utah UT-Sanpete Valley UT-
Western Millard and Juab Counties UT-Sevier Valley UT-
Upper Sevier River Valleys UT-Southern Mountains UT-
Central Mountains UT-Eastern Juab/Millard Counties UT-
317 AM MDT Tue Jul 21 2026

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of southwestern Sanpete,
southeastern Millard, western Piute, southeastern Juab, western
Sevier and eastern Beaver Counties through 345 AM MDT
...

At 317 AM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 11 miles east of Fillmore to 11 miles west of
Marysvale. Movement was west at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Richfield, Beaver, Fillmore, Scipio, Salina, Monroe, Annabella,
Kanosh, Marysvale, Meadow, Cove Fort, Sevier, Aurora, Elsinore,
Redmond, Glenwood, Sigurd, Holden, Joseph, and Flowell.

This includes the following highways...
 Interstate 15 between mile markers 105 and 191.
 Interstate 70 between mile markers 0 and 58.
 US Route 50 between mile markers 106 and 158.
 US Route 89 between mile markers 172 and 238.
 Utah Route 21 between mile markers 88 and 90, and between mile
markers 95 and 107.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3895 11266 3937 11221 3906 11174 3815 11235
      3823 11296
TIME...MOT...LOC 0917Z 107DEG 24KT 3892 11214 3843 11248

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

JAC