Flash Flood Warning 1, NWS Salt Lake City, UT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT
1206 PM MDT Wed Apr 1 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A brief lull is expected this afternoon as precipitation tapers
off this morning. Scattered convective showers look to develop west
of I-15 and progress toward the I-15 corridor.

- A much colder storm progresses toward the forecast area tonight
through Friday morning bringing snowfall to lower elevations and
higher accumulations across our northern mountains. There exists
potential for light valley accumulations Friday morning.

- Widespread freezing temperatures look to develop Friday morning,
potentially damaging early season agriculture.

&&

.DISCUSSION... Current radar and satellite imagery indicate
weakening rain showers and gradually eroding cloud cover across
eastern NV and the UT West Desert. Eventually, at least some cloud
breaks are expected to develop across northern UT this afternoon
with modest destabilization expected to occur as temperatures raise
into the mid 50s to low 60s. With 3CAPE ranging from 50-100J/kg and
MLCAPE ranging from 300-500J/kg, convective showers are expected to
develop across the West Desert and progress toward the Wasatch Front
this afternoon. Gusts ranging from 40-50mph, occasional lightning,
and perhaps a few instances of graupel are possible with these
storms. Across higher elevation locations, these storms may lead to
a few instances of locally heavy graupel/snow mix with lightning.

Early Thursday morning, a cold front will sweep across northern UT
with a notable uptick in associated precipitation along the front.
While valley locations can expect heavy rainfall along the front,
our northern UT mountains may see a notable uptick in snowfall rates
ahead of and along the approaching frontal boundary. Most northern
UT mountains can expect 1-1.5in/hr developing as early as 6AM,
though the Bear River Range and Upper Cottonwoods may see rates in
excess of 2-2.5in/hr from 6AM-12PM. Following the passage of the
front, precipitation rates are expected to gradually taper off into
the early evening as ascent weakens across northern UT. However, a
few pieces of hi-res guidance have indicated that a lake effect band
may form Thursday afternoon (12z HRRR and RRFS both indicate this
solution) and potentially persist into Friday morning. This would
result in localized higher snowfall accumulations along the Wasatch
Front, and potentially the Salt Lake Valley east bench locations as
snow levels are forecast to drop below valley floors by 6PM
Thursday. Currently, the Great Salt Lake water temperature sits
around ~59F thanks to the recent warm spell that we had, and with
700mb temperatures potentially dropping as low as -12C, the
development of a lake effect band is certainly in the cards.

Regarding overall accumulations, there is a 70-90% chance of at
least 6" for the Wasatch Mountains, Bear River Range, and High
Uintas. Moisture quality and ascent tapers off notably further south
of Utah county, with chances for 6" or greater ranging from 20-40%
along our higher elevation central UT mountains as snow levels
remain rather high. Chances for 12" or greater are generally
confined to the Upper Cottonwoods and Bear River Range, where
probabilities range from 70-90% as well. Given NW flow establishing
itself following the frontal passage, it is expected that the Upper
Cottonwoods will perform the best with this system. With the
potential of a lake effect band setting up, chances for 18" or
greater across the upper cottonwoods range from 50-70% through
Friday morning.

Regarding valley snowfall, chances for measurable snowfall (0.1")
appear increasingly likely along the I-15 corridor extending into
central UT with chances generally hanging around 60%+. Preceding
road temperatures are forecast to hinder overall accumulations, with
chances for 1" dropping to less than 20% for the majority of the I-
15 corridor through central UT. However, with the potential lake
effect band setting up, chances for 1" or greater along the east
benches of the Salt Lake valley range from roughly 30-60%.

High pressure looks to redevelop across the Great Basin this weekend
bringing a return to drier and warmer weather with another stretch
of record-breaking warmth developing early next week. A signal for
another potential pattern breakdown exists around the middle of next
week signaling a return to more active weather, though solutions
remain quite uncertain at this time.

&&

.AVIATION...KSLC...VFR conditions are expected through the remainder
of the day today with persistent rain showers tapering off through
the early afternoon. Throughout the afternoon, however, there is
around a 30% chance that rain showers move over the terminal.
Additionally, light southerly flow will remain in place through the
remainder of the day, however, rain showers moving to the north of
the terminal will bring potential for a brief wind shift to the
north. Otherwise, cloud cover decreases later this afternoon but
will quickly build again overnight and tomorrow morning.

.REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...A mix of VFR and MVFR/IFR
conditions are expected across the northern and central area today
as rain continues into the early afternoon. Coverage of showers will
be maintained near terrain features through the afternoon, though
overall coverage will decrease after 19-20Z. Brief clearing of skies
is expected this afternoon, however, lower level cloud cover will
increase once again during the overnight hours. A cold front will
pass through the area on Thursday morning, bringing gusty northerly
winds across the northern half of Utah and southwest Wyoming.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...None.
WY...None.
&&

PUBLIC...Worster
AVIATION...Webber

For more information from NOAA's National Weather Service visit...
http://weather.gov/saltlakecity