Tornado Warning 5, NWS San Angelo, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
203 PM CDT Sun May 10 2026

...New LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- High chances (70-80%) for thunderstorms this afternoon through
  late tonight. Strong to severe thunderstorms are expected. A
  Severe Thunderstorm Watch is in effect for the entire area.

- Above normal temperatures are expected in the middle to late
  part of the week, especially for portions of the Big Country.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 142 PM CDT Sun May 10 2026

...Severe Thunderstorm Watch in effect through 9 PM for all
counties...

At 1 PM, a cold front was located from near Seminole east to
Stamford, and was moving south towards the I-20 corridor. South of
the front in our forecast area, surface-based CAPEs were in the
3000 to 4000 J/kg range, effective deep layer shear ranged from 30
to 40 knots, low and mid level lapse rates were both in excess of
8C/km, and an upper level shortwave was moving into the area from
the northwest. All this will come together in the next 1 to 3
hours to initiate convection near a triple point that will be near
Sweetwater, where storms have already begun developing. Expect
the initial convection to be at least semi-discrete supercells,
the strongest of which will be capable of producing very large
(2"+) hail, wind gusts over 70 mph, and potentially tornadoes.
These storms will likely experience upscale growth into a MCS
within 1 to 2 hours where the most likely hazards will transition
to mainly large hail and wind gusts over 60 mph as the complex
moves southeast through our CWA. Everywhere south of Interstate 20
will have the potential to be impacted by these storms. North of
Interstate 20 will likely see isolated to scattered strong to
severe storms, but the threat will likely be over by 5 PM this
afternoon. Storms are expected to move out of our southern
counties by 9 or 10 PM tonight.

Lows tonight will drop into the upper 50s to mid 60s. Quieter
weather is expected tomorrow, with highs in the mid 70s to lower
80s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through next Sunday)
Issued at 151 PM CDT Sun May 10 2026

A dry and stable pattern will prevail for most of next week.
An upper level ridge over the southwestern U.S. will migrate
eastward into our area by the middle of the week. The center of
the ridge axis will shift to the east of the region on Thursday
and Friday with generally zonal flow aloft prevailing into next
weekend. Next weekend models forecast an upper level low to deepen
over southern California and the Baja. With embedded disturbances
in the southwest flow and the dryline in play may see scattered
thunderstorm development on Sunday. For now will keep PoPs capped
at 20-30 percent but will need to watch. Otherwise, temperatures
will warm into the upper 80s to mid 90s across most of the area
from Wednesday into next weekend, with some upper 90s and triple
digits possible in the Big County on Friday and Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1243 PM CDT Sun May 10 2026

Currently VFR across all sites early this afternoon. We are still
expecting a line of TSRA to develop by 22Z-23Z this afternoon,
then move southeast affecting all sites between 22Z and 04Z this
evening, and have kept the TEMPO groups with the same timing from
the previous set of TAFs. Once these storms move through, winds
will shift to the northeast between 10 and 15 knots. MVFR CIGs
will also develop from north to south across the area between 00Z
and 06Z tonight, eventually affecting all sites through most of
the morning hours Monday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene     59  79  59  87 /  70   0   0   0
San Angelo  59  79  57  88 /  70   0   0   0
Junction    61  79  56  87 /  80  10   0   0
Brownwood   59  78  57  85 /  90  10   0   0
Sweetwater  58  79  59  90 /  40   0   0   0
Ozona       60  79  58  87 /  50   0   0   0
Brady       61  76  57  83 /  90  10   0   0

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....42
AVIATION...20

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
208 PM CDT Sun May 10 2026

TXZ114-102015-
Shackelford TX-
208 PM CDT Sun May 10 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHEASTERN SHACKELFORD COUNTY
THROUGH 315 PM CDT...

At 208 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 7
miles southwest of Fort Griffin, moving east at 10 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Albany, Fort Griffin, Ibex, and Us-180 Near The Shackelford-
Stephens County Line.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 900 PM CDT for
west central Texas.

&&

LAT...LON 3261 9910 3260 9910 3277 9943 3296 9939
      3295 9909
TIME...MOT...LOC 1908Z 283DEG 10KT 3286 9933

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

sn

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