Flash Flood Warning 9, NWS San Angelo, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
106 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026

...New SHORT TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Severe Storms possible this afternoon and evening.

- Medium to High (30-80%) chances for showers and thunderstorms
  from Tuesday evening through Friday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 106 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026

Isolated to scattered thunderstorms have developed early this
afternoon, with some being severe. Expect these storms to continue
developing and expanding in coverage through the rest of the
afternoon and evening. Most CAMs eventually expand this convection
into a somewhat organized MCS, and move it south into south Texas
later tonight. The main concerns will continue to be large hail
and damaging winds. In addition, precipitable water values are
between 1 and 1.5 inches, and with the generally slow movement of
these storms, flash flooding will also be a concern.

For Wednesday, CAMs disagree with each other on the coverage and
intensity of possible convection, but with a boundary in the area,
the moisture remaining in place, and continued southwest flow
with embedded shortwave energy, we will likely have another at
least medium (20%-40%) chance for showers and thunderstorms,
mainly during the afternoon as afternoon heating affects the area.
We will continue to see at least a Slight Risk for severe storms,
mainly for our southern counties Wednesday.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through next Tuesday)
Issued at 1235 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026

An active weather pattern will persist through much of the long
term with a persistent upper level southwest flow with
disturbances moving across our area. Also, the combination of a
cold front south of the area and abundant moisture(PW values 1 to
1.5 inches) will bring a risk of localized flash flooding,
especially Wednesday night and Thursday as the WPC has a slight
risk of excessive rainfall along and south of the I-20 corridor.
Also, there is and isolated flash flood threat this weekend across
the southeast part of the area. There are medium to high chances
of rain for at least a few days in the long term. Also, there is
an isolated severe weather threat(marginal risk) for the southern
2/3 of the area Tuesday evening across the Concho Valley and
Northern Edwards Plateau. The main hazards will be large hail and
damaging winds. Temperatures will be cooler with highs in the
upper 70s and 80s, around to slightly below normal for this time
of year.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1203 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026

Currently VFR at all sites as a cold front moves through from
north to south. TSRA are expected to develop off of this cold
front later this afternoon and evening, and affect KSJT, KSOA,
KBBD, and KJCT during the evening hours. Have kept VCTS and TEMPO
groups going from late this afternoon into the evening hours at
these sites to address these storms. These TSRA should dissipate
by 06Z, after which the cold front is expected to stall somewhere
in our southern counties, giving east/northeast to northeast winds
for our southern sites, with MVFR CIGs filling in behind the
front after 06Z, and remaining through most of the morning
Wednesday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene     61  78  64  78 /  40  30  80  70
San Angelo  62  79  62  80 /  60  40  70  60
Junction    64  81  63  80 /  70  30  80  60
Brownwood   63  79  63  78 /  60  30  70  70
Sweetwater  60  77  62  79 /  30  30  80  60
Ozona       63  80  62  81 /  60  40  70  30
Brady       63  78  64  77 /  70  30  70  70

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....21
AVIATION...20

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
1129 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026

TXZ054-127-191700-
Nolan TX-Taylor TX-
1129 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHERN NOLAN AND SOUTHWESTERN
TAYLOR COUNTIES THROUGH NOON CDT...

At 1128 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
The Intersection Of Highway 70 And Ranch Road 53, or near Nolan,
moving east at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Blackwell, Nolan, Hylton, Maryneal, Happy Valley, Shep, Camp Butman,
and The Intersection Of Highway 70 And Ranch Road 53.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3208 10010 3208 10027 3209 10066 3227 10067
      3239 10009
TIME...MOT...LOC 1628Z 259DEG 19KT 3226 10032

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
1152 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026

TXZ054-127-191730-
Nolan TX-Taylor TX-
1152 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHEASTERN NOLAN AND
NORTHWESTERN TAYLOR COUNTIES THROUGH 1230 PM CDT...

At 1152 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Nolan, moving east at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Nolan, Coronados Camp, and Camp Butman.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3218 10031 3236 10035 3246 10002 3220 9991
TIME...MOT...LOC 1652Z 256DEG 15KT 3228 10023

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>