Flash Flood Warning 49, NWS San Angelo, TX

858 
WGUS74 KSJT 160359
FFSSJT

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
1059 PM CDT Wed Jul 15 2026

TXC267-160515-
/O.CON.KSJT.FF.W.0049.000000T0000Z-260716T0515Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Kimble TX-
1059 PM CDT Wed Jul 15 2026

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1215 AM CDT THURSDAY
FOR WESTERN KIMBLE COUNTY...

At 1059 PM CDT, Doppler radar indicated showers and a few
thunderstorms continuing to move north across the western part of
Kimble County. Rainfall rates of 0.75 inches to 1.5 inches per hour
will result in flash flooding, especially in low-lying areas. The
Kimble County Sheriff reported that Highway 377 has been closed south
of Junction where there are low water crossings, including with the
South Llano River.

HAZARD...Life threatening flash flooding. Thunderstorms producing
         flash flooding.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Life threatening flash flooding of creeks and streams,
         low-lying areas, highways, streets and underpasses.

Some locations that will experience flash flooding include...
  Roosevelt, Telegraph, Cleo and Us-377 Near The Kimble-Edwards
  County Line.

This includes Interstate 10 between Mile Markers 434 and 453.

This includes the following Low Water Crossings...
Park Road 73 crossing South Llano River, US HWY 377 crossing South
Llano River, RM 2291 crossings along Bear Creek, US HWY 377 crossing
2 miles North of Telegraph, County Road 275 crossing North Llano
River, County Road 260 crossing North Llano River, CR 150 crossing
South Llano River and KC 210 crossing West Bear Creek.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood
deaths occur in vehicles.

Be especially cautious at night when it is harder to recognize the
dangers of flooding.

&&

LAT...LON 3036 10012 3069 10010 3070 9979 3050 9981
      3029 9981 3029 10012

FLASH FLOOD...RADAR INDICATED
FLASH FLOOD DAMAGE THREAT...CONSIDERABLE

$$

19

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
645 PM CDT Wed Jul 15 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms, some producing
  heavy rainfall, through Thursday evening. A moderate to high
  risk of excessive rainfall today through Thursday morning south
  of the I-20 corridor.

- A Flood Watch in effect for the Northern Edwards Plateau,
  Northwest Hill Country, and southern portions of the Concho
  Valley and Heartland continues through Thursday evening.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 1236 PM CDT Wed Jul 15 2026

Weak systems in weak flow continue to create a lower confidence
but higher potential impact flood situation across West Central
Texas.

Looks like a broad weak upper low has developed across the area,
centered somewhere near San Angelo itself. On its southeast
quadrant, several MCV circulations are rotating northeast across
the Hill Country (including the main one centered near the
Mason/Gillespie/Llano lines). So far, heaviest rain fall today
has occurred in Mason County where 2+ inches has fallen in a
couple hours. Even the lighter showers though are very efficient
rain producers with the activity around San Angelo this morning
producing some totals near 3/4 of an inch. Precipitable water
values are high (nearly 2 inches) and the convection fairly slow
moving.

For tonight into Thursday, the weak upper low is forecasted to
drift farther west. This puts more of West Central Texas in the
critical southeast/east quadrant where additional bursts of heavy
rainfall is most possible. Models show this general idea, but
vary greatly in the critical details once again. Somewhere from
San Angelo to San Saba south into the Edwards Plateau and Hill
Country may well see high end 5-10+ inches of rain by Thursday
night or Friday morning, and given the saturated soils and the
fact that creeks and streams are already running nearly full, the
potential for a high end flash flooding event is a real
possibility that needs to be considered, even if the chances of it
occurring are relatively low. The confidence of knowing where
that might happen however remains lower than we would like it, but
of note, this risk area has expanded farther west and north into
the Concho Valley to include San Angelo.

Discussion with WPC and EWX, and there was a consideration of
bumping more of the area into a HIGH risk on the ERO for tomorrow,
but given the uncertainties in where, agreement was to keep it as
a MODERATE for now. If the signal changes and a specific area
starts to become more locked in, an upgrade may well be needed.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through next Wednesday)
Issued at 1236 PM CDT Wed Jul 15 2026

Upper low continues drifting west means another round of
potentially heavy rainfall Thursday night into Friday morning,
although with even more uncertainty than the first 24 hours. If it
does develop, the area will shift west with the upper low and be
focused more on the Concho Valley and Edwards Plateau west into
the Permian Basin. Will continue with high POPs into Friday
morning but much lower for the weekend as the system continues
drifting west. After some cloudier and cooler days lately, the
heat will begin to return and afternoon highs will again be
climbing into the 90s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 641 PM CDT Wed Jul 15 2026

Generally MVFR to IFR level ceilings will remain in place for
much of the TAF period across all terminals, with a small chance
for LIFR conditions in any passing Thunderstorms producing heavy
rainfall. Expect on and off rounds of heavy rain through tonight
and into Thursday morning, with increased potential for flooding
south of I-20 through the TAF period. A much more widespread
heavy rain event is expected overnight tonight with additional
flash flooding concerns. Reduced visibility remains a concern due
to the heavy rainfall as this activity moves through. Expect
little improvement by Thursday afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene     68  83  70  86 /  50  70  50  50
San Angelo  65  81  67  84 /  90  90  70  70
Junction    66  84  68  86 /  90  70  60  30
Brownwood   67  83  70  87 /  60  70  40  20
Sweetwater  66  81  68  84 /  50  80  70  70
Ozona       65  81  66  83 /  90  90  80  80
Brady       66  82  68  85 /  80  70  40  20

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch through Friday evening for Brown-Coke-Coleman-Concho-
Crockett-Irion-Kimble-Mason-McCulloch-Menard-Nolan-Runnels-San
Saba-Schleicher-Sterling-Sutton-Tom Green.

&&

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...TP