Flash Flood Warning 14, NWS San Angelo, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
106 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026

...New SHORT TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Severe Storms possible this afternoon and evening.

- Medium to High (30-80%) chances for showers and thunderstorms
  from Tuesday evening through Friday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 106 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026

Isolated to scattered thunderstorms have developed early this
afternoon, with some being severe. Expect these storms to continue
developing and expanding in coverage through the rest of the
afternoon and evening. Most CAMs eventually expand this convection
into a somewhat organized MCS, and move it south into south Texas
later tonight. The main concerns will continue to be large hail
and damaging winds. In addition, precipitable water values are
between 1 and 1.5 inches, and with the generally slow movement of
these storms, flash flooding will also be a concern.

For Wednesday, CAMs disagree with each other on the coverage and
intensity of possible convection, but with a boundary in the area,
the moisture remaining in place, and continued southwest flow
with embedded shortwave energy, we will likely have another at
least medium (20%-40%) chance for showers and thunderstorms,
mainly during the afternoon as afternoon heating affects the area.
We will continue to see at least a Slight Risk for severe storms,
mainly for our southern counties Wednesday.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through next Tuesday)
Issued at 1235 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026

An active weather pattern will persist through much of the long
term with a persistent upper level southwest flow with
disturbances moving across our area. Also, the combination of a
cold front south of the area and abundant moisture(PW values 1 to
1.5 inches) will bring a risk of localized flash flooding,
especially Wednesday night and Thursday as the WPC has a slight
risk of excessive rainfall along and south of the I-20 corridor.
Also, there is and isolated flash flood threat this weekend across
the southeast part of the area. There are medium to high chances
of rain for at least a few days in the long term. Also, there is
an isolated severe weather threat(marginal risk) for the southern
2/3 of the area Tuesday evening across the Concho Valley and
Northern Edwards Plateau. The main hazards will be large hail and
damaging winds. Temperatures will be cooler with highs in the
upper 70s and 80s, around to slightly below normal for this time
of year.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1203 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026

Currently VFR at all sites as a cold front moves through from
north to south. TSRA are expected to develop off of this cold
front later this afternoon and evening, and affect KSJT, KSOA,
KBBD, and KJCT during the evening hours. Have kept VCTS and TEMPO
groups going from late this afternoon into the evening hours at
these sites to address these storms. These TSRA should dissipate
by 06Z, after which the cold front is expected to stall somewhere
in our southern counties, giving east/northeast to northeast winds
for our southern sites, with MVFR CIGs filling in behind the
front after 06Z, and remaining through most of the morning
Wednesday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene     61  78  64  78 /  40  30  80  70
San Angelo  62  79  62  80 /  60  40  70  60
Junction    64  81  63  80 /  70  30  80  60
Brownwood   63  79  63  78 /  60  30  70  70
Sweetwater  60  77  62  79 /  30  30  80  60
Ozona       63  80  62  81 /  60  40  70  30
Brady       63  78  64  77 /  70  30  70  70

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....21
AVIATION...20

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
543 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026

TXZ072-077-192345-
Schleicher TX-Tom Green TX-
543 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTH CENTRAL SCHLEICHER AND
SOUTHEASTERN TOM GREEN COUNTIES THROUGH 645 PM CDT...

At 542 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm
about 10 miles south of Christoval, moving north at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Christoval.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1100 PM CDT for
west central Texas.

&&

LAT...LON 3099 10044 3100 10066 3130 10058 3128 10024
TIME...MOT...LOC 2242Z 200DEG 16KT 3103 10053

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

sn

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
555 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026

TXZ154-155-170-200000-
Mason TX-McCulloch TX-San Saba TX-
555 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHEASTERN MCCULLOCH...
NORTHERN MASON AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN SABA COUNTIES THROUGH 700 PM
CDT...

At 555 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Fredonia, moving north at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Pontotoc, Fredonia, Katemcy, Camp San Saba, Camp Air, Voca, and The
Intersection Of Highway 29 And Ranch Road 1222.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1100 PM CDT for
west central Texas.

&&

LAT...LON 3080 9948 3093 9949 3120 9897 3078 9897
TIME...MOT...LOC 2255Z 177DEG 12KT 3086 9916

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

sn

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
614 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026

TXZ076>078-200015-
Schleicher TX-Crockett TX-Sutton TX-
614 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT WESTERN SCHLEICHER...
NORTHEASTERN CROCKETT AND NORTHWESTERN SUTTON COUNTIES THROUGH 715 PM
CDT...

At 612 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a cluster of strong
thunderstorms from northeastern Crockett County into northwestern
Sutton County, moving northeast at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Eldorado, The Intersection Of Ranch Road 1828 And Ranch Road 915, The
Intersection Of Us-
190 And Ranch Road 1828, The Intersection Of Us 190 And Highway 163,
and Us-190 Near The Crockett-Sutton County Line.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1100 PM CDT for
west central Texas.

&&

LAT...LON 3077 10127 3108 10127 3109 10047 3062 10070
TIME...MOT...LOC 2312Z 203DEG 20KT 3079 10094

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

sn

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
616 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0613 PM     Hail             1 ENE Mertzon           31.27N 100.81W
05/19/2026  M1.00 Inch       Irion              TX   Public

&&

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