Flash Flood Warning 1, NWS San Angelo, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
652 PM CDT Sat Apr 11 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Strong to severe storms possible this afternoon through tonight,
  and some risk for flash flooding tonight.

- Unsettled and potentially active pattern continues Sunday
  through Friday of next week with a severe weather risk Sunday
  through Wednesday, and daily chances of showers and storms
  through the week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 215 PM CDT Sat Apr 11 2026

An approaching shortwave in southwest flow aloft will help to
initiate thunderstorm development in the TX Big Bend and
southwest Texas, into the Pecos Valley and portions of the Permian
Basin this afternoon into the evening. Out ahead of this
shortwave, scattered showers and storms are expected over our area
in a moist and unstable airmass. With CAPE values expected to
increase to 1000-1500 J/KG, the strongest storms will be capable
of producing large hail and localized strong or damaging winds.
Expect storms west and southwest of our area to increase in
coverage by this evening. Larger clusters of thunderstorms will
overspread at least the western half of our area between 8 PM and
Midnight, and the eastern and southeastern parts of our area after
Midnight. With storms tonight, the main severe weather threat
will be strong/possibly damaging winds, especially with any bowing
line segments. There is a very low (2 percent) threat for an
isolated tornado this evening and tonight.

With precipitable water values increasing to around 1.5 inches,
heavy rain will accompany the convection. Overall, rainfall
amounts around 1 inch will be common, with areas under heavy
downpours receiving totals of 2 to 4 inches. A few higher totals
will be possible. While widespread rain will be beneficial for the
area, heavy rainfall concentrated in short periods of time (also
backbuilding storms) could cause flooding of city streets, low
water crossings and and other poor drainage areas. Quick rises on
some area streams and rivers will be possible tonight into Sunday
morning, especially in areas with hilly terrain. Expect showers
and storms to be over our eastern (Heartland) and southeastern
counties in the early to mid- morning hours Sunday, before ending.

After morning cloud cover on Sunday, coverage will decrease from the
west by afternoon. This should allow for the airmass to have enough
time to recover and become moderately unstable. Mid-level southwest
flow will be strong enough to support a severe weather threat
(mainly large hail and damaging winds) should any storms develop.
However, there is considerable uncertainty in this time on the
extent of development and storm coverage. Expect highs Sunday
afternoon to range from the upper 70s/near 80 in our southeastern
counties, to the mid 80s across a good portion of the Big Country
and Concho Valley.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through next Saturday)
Issued at 126 PM CDT Sat Apr 11 2026

Southwest flow aloft will transition to zonal flow toward next
weekend. The main weather concerns begin with the approach of an
upper low over the 4 corners region Monday night, which brings in
chance of showers and thunderstorms. The better chance of storms,
however, will be Tuesday afternoon/evening and again Wednesday...as
storms develop off a dryline in the Permian Basin and moving east.
With a warm moist air mass with dew points in the lower to mid 60s,
there will be the potential for severe weather each day next week,
although Thursday and Friday looks less conducive for severe
weather. While its quite far out and confidence is low at this time,
shower and thunderstorm chances could increase again next weekend,
with approach of a weak front Saturday and a slightly stronger front
Sunday.

Over all, warm temperatures prevail next week with highs mainly in
the low to mid 80s, and overnight lows in the lower to mid 60s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 637 PM CDT Sat Apr 11 2026

Main concern will a line of strong/possibly severe convection
late this evening and overnight. Mainly VFR conditions through
mid to late evening, with scattered showers and a few
thunderstorms, mainly at KSJT and KABI. A strong line of storms
is expected to develop and moves east across the terminals late
this evening/overnight. Gusty winds and heavy rainfall will be the
main concern but some hail is also possible. Will continue with a
TEMPO groups for the line of storms and PROB30 groups for
lingering convection once the line passes. Stratus with MVFR/IFR
ceilings are expected towards daybreak through the morning hours.
Expect mainly light southeast to south winds overnight, except
erratic and gusty in and around convection.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene     63  83  66  87 / 100  50  10  10
San Angelo  61  84  64  86 /  90  30  10  10
Junction    61  80  64  84 /  80  60  20  20
Brownwood   62  80  64  85 /  80  70  10  10
Sweetwater  63  85  65  88 / 100  20   0   0
Ozona       62  82  64  82 / 100  30  10  10
Brady       62  78  65  83 /  70  60  20  20

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

SHORT TERM...19
LONG TERM....04
AVIATION...24

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
545 PM CDT Sat Apr 11 2026

TXZ066-127-112330-
Runnels TX-Taylor TX-
545 PM CDT Sat Apr 11 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHEASTERN TAYLOR AND
NORTHEASTERN RUNNELS COUNTIES THROUGH 630 PM CDT...

At 544 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Winters, moving northeast at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and nickel size hail along with
         frequent lightning.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Winters, Lawn, Bradshaw, Drasco, Lake Winters Lake, and Pumphrey.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3208 9969 3208 9971 3202 9971 3184 9987
      3196 10008 3216 9998 3215 9966
TIME...MOT...LOC 2244Z 218DEG 21KT 3197 9994

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

19

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
650 PM CDT Sat Apr 11 2026

TXZ114-128-120030-
Shackelford TX-Callahan TX-
650 PM CDT Sat Apr 11 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHWESTERN CALLAHAN AND
SOUTHWESTERN SHACKELFORD COUNTIES THROUGH 730 PM CDT...

At 649 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Clyde, moving northeast at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Clyde, Eula, and Us-283 Near The Callahan-Shackelford County Line.

This includes Interstate 20 between Mile Markers 293 and 305.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3257 9926 3230 9950 3237 9963 3247 9963
      3259 9959
TIME...MOT...LOC 2349Z 213DEG 13KT 3241 9956

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

19