Special Weather Statement, NWS Shreveport, LA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1255 AM CDT Sun May 10 2026

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1200 AM CDT Sun May 10 2026

 - Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms, some strong to
   severe will be possible across most of the Four State Region
   Today through at least this evening.

 - We begin to dry out late on Monday with a warming trend in the
   mid to late week timeframe.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1200 AM CDT Sun May 10 2026

Complex forecast today through tonight which could result in a
threat of strong to severe thunderstorms with locally heavy
rainfall but the ingredients for this need to come together at the
right time and the timing and location of all this is far from
certain.

Those complications begin currently with a complex of strong
storms across portions of Central and Southern Oklahoma which has
shown a tendency over the last hour or two to weaken in intensity
but expand in coverage. Some high res progs and CAM output are
latching on to this complex and forcing it into our region
overnight towards the predawn hours Sunday with a severe wind
and/or hail threat. Other solutions are decaying this complex as
it nears our northwest zones and this seems to be the more
plausible solution given that the stout moisture axis in the
700-850mb layer is not there overnight like Friday Night, not to
mention we lack the deep layer shear in the 0-6km layer we had
last night.

Having said all this, we are currently in northwest flow aloft and
this type of weather pattern is always the great equalizer when it
comes to proving one wrong just when you think you have a good
handle on the above listed ingredients. The current shortwave
embedded in this flow aloft is subtle but the one that will be
moving out of the OK/TX Pnhdle appears to be much more substantial
and is poised to possibly impact our region by late morning but
especially during the afternoon and evening hours tonight. The
million dollar question is will there be enough of the current
complex moving into our region during the morning hours today to
disturb the atmosphere enough such that the worst of a severe
weather threat and impacts may be west of our region. SPC's Sunday
Convective Outlook hints at this with more of an Enhanced Risk of
Severe storms west of our region and this appears to be where the
best instability axis will exist today in advance of the upper
forcing associated with the disturbance embedded in this northwest
flow aloft pattern. Still believe we could see a damaging wind
and/or a hail threat later today/this evening but the bigger
threat does appear to be to our west during this timeframe.

The longwave trough moves ovhd late tonight and through the day
Monday with the trough departing our region Monday Night and that
will begin a drying trend that should last most if not all of the
upcoming work week. A strong ridge axis will take the place of the
longwave trough across the Tx Hill Country and this feature will
slowly expand eastward through the week thus, the warming trend
from day to day through the week.

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&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1254 AM CDT Sun May 10 2026

For the 10/06Z TAFs, area terminals are seeing CIGs tank to IFR and
LIFR levels, accompanied by periodic VSBY reductions, which will
likely become more widespread as winds become nearly calm towards
daybreak. Given the brevity of fog thusfar, accounting for impacts
with TEMPO groups. Will amend as needed. Meanwhile, storms in
southeastern Oklahoma and north Texas look to enter our northwestern
airspace in the next hour or so. Impacts will depend on how well
these storms hold together, and if they do, most likely will affect
KTXK and the I-30 corridor. Further thunderstorms are possible late
in this forecast period, into the morning hours and again in the
afternoon. Winds will be light to nearly calm overnight, remaining
light and variable into the daytime hours, at maximum sustained
speeds of about 5 kts.

/26/

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 1200 AM CDT Sun May 10 2026

Strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible Today through
at least this evening. Therefore, spotter activation will likely
be needed during this timeframe.

13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  83  65  76  58/  60  60  40   0
MLU  85  65  78  57/  60  60  40   0
DEQ  78  58  76  50/  70  60  40   0
TXK  82  62  76  54/  70  60  40   0
ELD  82  60  75  52/  60  60  40   0
TYR  83  64  75  58/  60  60  40   0
GGG  83  64  76  57/  60  60  40   0
LFK  86  67  79  61/  40  60  40   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.

&&

DISCUSSION...13
AVIATION...26

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
107 AM CDT Sun May 10 2026

OKZ077-100700-
McCurtain OK-
107 AM CDT Sun May 10 2026

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT NORTHWESTERN MCCURTAIN
COUNTY UNTIL 2 AM CDT...

At 107 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a line of strong
thunderstorms extending from 45 miles northwest of Broken Bow to 31
miles north of Manchester, or extending from 57 miles northwest of De
Queen to 46 miles north of Clarksville, moving east at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
  Battiest, Bethel, Mount Herman, Sherwood and Pickens.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Monitor the weather situation closely and be alert for threatening
weather conditions.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3451 9472 3432 9474 3422 9476 3423 9515
      3424 9515 3424 9505 3451 9505
TIME...MOT...LOC 0607Z 258DEG 16KT 3460 9509 3432 9512 3428 9515

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

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