Severe Thunderstorm Warning 49, NWS Shreveport, LA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
151 PM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026

...New SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 102 PM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026

 - A fast moving line of strong to severe thunderstorms are
   expected to push across the Ark-La-Tex this afternoon, where
   damaging wind, hail and tornadoes will all be possible.

 - Behind the front, sustained 15-25 mph winds, with gusts up to
   and exceeding 35-45 mph, are expected into Monday morning.

 - A cold and dry airmass will quickly move in tonight, resulting
   in overnight lows near and below freezing both Monday and
   Tuesday morning, with highs back to seasonal by mid-week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 102 PM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026

An agitated cumulus field is unfolding across the Ark-La-Tex this
afternoon as our long awaited cold front, and associated severe
weather threat is quickly approaching. Upstream observations across
central Oklahoma and north Texas show peak non-convective wind gusts
over 50 mph. This front will continue to race east as it will
intercept an airmass with temperatures quickly warming into the
upper 70's and low 80's, with surface Td's in the lower 60's. Hourly
mesoanalysis across the region suggests that effective bulk shear
values are around 40kt, with a 45-50kt LLJ sitting overhead. Tucked
under the LLJ, sfc-1km SRH values are sitting between 100-200 m2/s2
with sfc-3km between 200-300 m2/s2. These values may decrease a tick
or two as the jet slides east over the next few hours, but that
being said, as the cold front enters the region, an environment
conducive for strong to severe thunderstorms will exist, where all
modes of severe weather will be possible, with tornado watches
likely this afternoon.

Though timing has been consistent across the hi-res and CAMs over
the last 12-24 hours, uncertainty still remains when it comes to
where thunderstorm initiation will occur. Output from the HRRR,
RRFS, and NAM continue to suggest that the boundary should remain
free of deeply rooted convection as it enters into McCurtain County,
OK. This will change as the front approaches the I-49 corridor where
dynamics will become more conducive to support deeply rooted
thunderstorms buying the cap erodes, supporting the
aforementioned hazards. The SHV 18z upper air balloon launch
reveals that 800mb temperatures sit between 17.5-18 deg C, thus
suggesting a cap remains in place. A 20z launch will help further
evaluate the cap as the boundary approaches. It is important to
note that while the local SPC tornado hazards sit on the lower end
of the scale across the central and eastern zones, if a
thunderstorm can become deeply rooted and mature as the cap
erodes, a tornado or two, potentially strong, can't be ruled out.
At the same time, exceptionally strong lapse rates will support
large hail with initial semi-discrete development prior to later
QLCS formation where a damaging wind and embedded tornado threat
will become the dominate hazards. This axis of convection will
quickly race east along the front, with the latest timing analysis
suggesting the front should exit the region around or shortly
after 10pm.

Behind the front, and similar to what is being experienced ahead of
the boundary, gusty northwesterly winds will continue across the Ark-
La-Tex through the overnight where wind gusts between 40-45 mph will
be possible. Already, Shreveport Regional Airport has peaked with a
46 mph non-thunderstorm gradient based wind gust ahead of the
boundary. This may result in brief power outages, along with the
displacement of unsecured or loose items outdoors. At the same time,
a strong airmass will filter in, quickly dropping temperatures
overnight locally into the 20's and 30's. As a result, a Freeze
Warning remains in effect across portions of northeast Texas,
southwest Arkansas and southeastern Oklahoma. Expect for another
Freeze Warning to be issued for Tuesday morning with the evening
forecast package as Tuesday AM temperatures will sit at or below
freezing for most if not all. This will be an extremely dry
airmass that will settle in to start the new week, with RH
percentages in the upper teens and low 20's and Td's in the single
digits to low teens. With this in mind, fire danger will need
monitored closely.

Looking long range, rain chances will be non-existent as influence
from ridging out west builds in, supporting dry conditions and
rapidly warming temperatures as highs enter the 80's as early as
Thursday.

KNAPP

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1246 PM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026

For the ArkLaTex terminals, VFR now with good heating underway and
Windy with S/SW 10-20G35KT will continue with a fropa in the
coming hours. Convection initiation will unfold in E TX. KTYR will
see a dry fropa by 21Z with KGGG not far behind and potential
development. The quickly developing line of thunderstorms will
potentialy affect KTXK/KSHV/KLFK 22-24Z and then KELD soon after
and KMLU by 03Z. Fropa will usher brisk NW10-20G35KT overnight and
slacking a bit into Monday as skies clearing NW to SE 10-13Z.
/24/

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 150 PM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026

Spotter activation will be needed this afternoon for severe storms
across the Four State Region.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  83  37  50  31 /  60  30   0   0
MLU  85  37  50  29 /  50  80   0   0
DEQ  74  26  45  23 /  40   0   0   0
TXK  80  32  49  29 /  60  10   0   0
ELD  80  31  48  26 /  80  40   0   0
TYR  84  34  50  31 /  20   0   0   0
GGG  83  35  50  29 /  50  10   0   0
LFK  84  37  52  31 /  40  30   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT Monday for ARZ050-051-059>061-
     070>073.

     Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 9 AM CDT Monday for
     ARZ050-051-059>061-070>073.

LA...Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT Monday for LAZ001>006-010>014-
     017>022.

OK...Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT Monday for OKZ077.

     Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 9 AM CDT Monday for
     OKZ077.

TX...Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT Monday for TXZ096-097-108>112-
     124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167.

     Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 9 AM CDT Monday for
     TXZ096-097-108>112-124-125.

&&

DISCUSSION...53
AVIATION...24

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
516 PM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0419 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     Nashville               33.94N 93.85W
03/15/2026                   Howard             AR   Law Enforcement

            Trees were downed in Nashville.

&&

15

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
517 PM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0410 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     Center Point            34.03N 93.95W
03/15/2026                   Howard             AR   Law Enforcement

            Trees down in the Center Point community.

&&

15

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
518 PM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0359 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     Dierks                  34.12N 94.02W
03/15/2026                   Howard             AR   Law Enforcement

            Trees down in Dierks.

&&

15

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
524 PM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0508 PM     Hail             Longview                32.52N 94.76W
03/15/2026  E1.00 Inch       Gregg              TX   Amateur Radio

            Quarter-size hail reported at the
            intersection of H. G. Mosley Parkway and
            Bill Owens Parkway in Longview, TX.

&&

16

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
525 PM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0447 PM     Hail             Bullard                 32.14N 95.32W
03/15/2026  M1.00 Inch       Smith              TX   Broadcast Media

            Quarter size hail fell in Bullard.

&&

15

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
526 PM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0510 PM     Hail             2 W Longview            32.52N 94.80W
03/15/2026  E1.00 Inch       Gregg              TX   Public

            Quarter-size hail reported by mPING in west
            Longview.

&&

16