Severe Thunderstorm Warning 150, NWS Shreveport, LA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1256 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1253 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026

 - Strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon
   and evening, particularly across the northwestern ArkLaTex.
   Damaging winds and large hail will be the primary threats, and
   a spin-up tornado or two is not out of the question,

 - Widespread rainfall will continue on a daily basis through the
   course of the next seven days, resulting in total
   accumulations of 4 to 7 inches.

 - As soils become saturated from repeated rounds of rainfall, the
   risk of flash flooding will become a concern through late this
   week and into the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1253 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026

An initial wave of showers and thunderstorms is pushing through
extreme southeast Oklahoma into southwest Arkansas at this hour,
along a boundary out ahead out the main cold front draped across
southern Oklahoma and north Texas. As the front pushes east and
south today, a complex of strong to severe thunderstorms will
develop further along the front's southern extent, advancing into
the ArkLaTex this afternoon into the evening. Damaging wind gusts
will be the principal hazard, along with large hail north. The
threat for tornadoes is comparably low, though a brief spin-up is
not out of the question altogether. Finally, training areas of heavy
rainfall may lead to localized flash flooding, particularly in urban
areas across the western ArkLaTex.

Today's wave of strong thunderstorms should run its course by late
this evening, diminishing in intensity as it makes southeastward
progress, but the rainfall will just be beginning, as the front
responsible for the storms slows its progress and becomes nearly
stationary, stalling near or along the I-20 corridor. A series of
weak upper level disturbances embedded in the southwest flow will
trek northeastward over the region through the remainder of the week
and into the weekend, tapping into the firehose of moisture which
will be aimed at the ArkLaTex throughout the course of this forecast
period. It bears mentioning that this does not mean a week's worth
of continuous rainfall, per se, but we do expect frequent enough
impulses to result in high confidence of at least daily rounds of
showers and a few rumbles of thunder.

The persistent nature of this set up is also elevating the potential
for flash flooding. The ArkLaTex is included in at least lower-end
risk flood outlooks through the remainder of the week. The most
recent accumulation forecast totals suggest at least 4 inches of
rain across the region, with the highest totals in the 5 to 7 inch
range. Bear in mind, these totals will be accumulated through the
course of the next 7 days, not in a single event, but as soils
become saturated with daily rainfall by late this week, it will not
take as much additional rain to result in flooding.

Reinforced by southerly flow, warm conditions will continue this
afternoon, before this wet pattern puts a dent in the well-above
average temperatures of the past few days. Highs will settle into
the low to middle 80s by late in the week, with lows in the 60s
throughout.

/26/

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1253 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026

Ceilings have largely recovered to VFR early this afternoon and
will largely prevail through the rest of the afternoon and evening,
with the exception of temporary drops to MVFR (and possibly IFR)
within thunderstorms. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will
develop this afternoon ahead of the main line of thunderstorms
currently moving across SE Oklahoma. The main line of thunderstorms
will affect TAF sites later this afternoon and through the evening,
with gusty and erratic winds expected, vsby reductions, and very
heavy rainfall. Vsbys and ceilings will then fall area-wide in the
wake of storms overnight tonight before then struggling to improve
before the end of the TAF cycle at 20/18z. Winds this afternoon will
be breezy out of the S at 10-15kts with rather frequent gusts to 20-
30kts, then becoming more variable generally out of the E overnight
and Wednesday morning at under 10kts.

CK

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 1253 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026

Spotter activation may be needed areawide through early this
evening. /26/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  71  84  70  82 /  80  60  70  90
MLU  71  85  69  85 /  80  70  70  80
DEQ  66  81  65  77 /  40  50  60  70
TXK  68  84  67  81 /  50  50  60  80
ELD  68  83  66  81 /  70  70  60  90
TYR  69  82  68  79 /  80  70  60  90
GGG  69  83  69  81 /  80  70  60  80
LFK  72  85  71  83 /  70  90  60  90

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

DISCUSSION...26
AVIATION...23

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
328 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0301 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     1 SSW Lewisville        33.35N 93.59W
05/19/2026                   Lafayette          AR   Emergency Mngr

            Emergency Management received report of a
            tree on a vehicle on County Rd 139 at the
            intersection of County Rd 20.

&&

SP

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
359 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026

LAZ001>003-010>012-TXZ138-151-153-192145-
De Soto LA-Shelby TX-Harrison TX-Bossier LA-Bienville LA-Red
River LA-Panola TX-Webster LA-Caddo LA-
359 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026

...A LINE OF SHOWERS WILL IMPACT CADDO...BOSSIER...NORTHWESTERN DE
SOTO...NORTHWESTERN RED RIVER...WEST CENTRAL BIENVILLE AND
SOUTHWESTERN WEBSTER PARISHES AND SOUTHEASTERN HARRISON...PANOLA AND
NORTHWESTERN SHELBY COUNTIES UNTIL 445 PM CDT...

At 359 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a line of showers extending
from 8 miles south of Cotton Valley to 9 miles northeast of Tatum, or
extending from 12 miles northwest of Minden to 11 miles south of
Marshall, moving south at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
  Shreveport, Bossier City, Marshall, Carthage, Haughton, Greenwood,
  Blanchard, Waskom, Benton, Stonewall, Cotton Valley, Beckville,
  Doyline, Mooringsport, Belcher, Elysian Fields, Deberry, Fosters,
  Eastwood and Scottsville.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Monitor the weather situation closely and be alert for threatening
weather conditions.

&&

LAT...LON 3255 9448 3288 9341 3220 9339 3206 9391
      3193 9447
TIME...MOT...LOC 2059Z 2DEG 31KT 3270 9346 3251 9389 3238 9439

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

57

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