River Flood Warning 7, NWS Shreveport, LA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
554 AM CDT Sat Mar 14 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1226 AM CDT Sat Mar 14 2026

- Severe thunderstorms (carrying damaging winds and tornadoes)
  are likely with the next frontal boundary on Sunday. This the
  main chance of rain in the next 7 days.

- Some near to below freezing temperatures are likely on Monday
  night, especially along and north of I-20.

- Another dry and warm week is ahead after Monday (mid-to upper
  80s are not out of the question by next Friday).

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1226 AM CDT Sat Mar 14 2026

Southerly return flow will continue through the next 24-36 hours,
setting the stage for active weather on Sunday. Temperature
maximums above normal in the 70-80 degree range will not be
uncommon as a result. Aloft, zonal flow will continue through the
same time period before troughing begins over the Intermountain
West. As troughing emerges into the Great Plains, some lee
cyclogenesis will amplify the delivery of more upper-level
divergence across the area by Sunday afternoon. Confidence
continues to increase on the potential for a fast-moving complex
of storms to develop, carrying the predominant threats of damaging
winds and quickly-forming tornadoes. Short range guidance
suggests ingredients like mid-level lapse rates near 8 C/km, and
0-1 km SRH at 150-200 m2/s2 for a large hail/damaging wind/tornado
threat that afternoon with any storms developing along the
frontal boundary.

A significant post-frontal cooldown is also becoming more likely,
with a greater than 60 percent chance of freezing temperatures on
Sunday night north of I-30. Long-range guidance suggests a pattern
change to ridging, that continues the rollercoaster ride with
another warming trend through next week (mid-to upper 80s are not
out of the question by next Friday). /16/

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 550 AM CDT Sat Mar 14 2026

For the 14/12z TAF period...Low cigs are moving into the region
this morning, bringing reduced flight categories. These cigs may
hold off at KMLU, and possibly at KELD. VFR conditions will return
as the low clouds scatter out by mid to late morning, with more
passing high clouds expected to move in by this afternoon.
However, low cigs and reduced flight categories will return after
midnight. Winds will remain from the south between 7-12 mph,
eventually increasing to between 10-15 mph by the end of the
period, with gusts approaching 20 to 25 mph at times. /20/

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 1226 AM CDT Sat Mar 14 2026

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  77  60  84  35 /   0   0  50  40
MLU  77  58  84  36 /   0   0  30  70
DEQ  76  54  76  25 /   0   0  70  20
TXK  78  60  82  32 /   0   0  70  20
ELD  75  56  80  30 /   0   0  60  50
TYR  79  61  84  34 /   0   0  30  10
GGG  78  59  84  32 /   0   0  50  20
LFK  78  60  85  36 /   0   0  30  40

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

DISCUSSION...16
AVIATION...20