Flash Flood Warning 9, NWS Shreveport, LA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
621 PM CDT Thu May 21 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 222 PM CDT Thu May 21 2026

 - Showers and isolated thunderstorms are lifting N/NW into the
   ArkLaTex and will continue to organize a bit while moving N.

 - The outlook for the weekend remains very favorable for
   continued deep convection, primarily enhanced by heating.

 - The SW flow pattern aloft will swing a few different systems in
   over the MidSouth. The disturbances will enhance coverage with
   each passing system and the last one will slow & stall Sunday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 222 PM CDT Thu May 21 2026

The sea breeze push is generally a little early with some of the
convective leaders of the pack lifting across I-20 at this time
near Longview and Monroe. There is a weak upper low out SE of
Houston and over the Gulf and spreading abundant cirrus inland.
This cloud coverage is no doubt limiting instability and keeping
the mercury on a slow climb this afternoon. The HRRR is looking
fairly well at initializing convection this afternoon with the
weakness out over the Gulf expected to help to lift in additional
convection inland before sunset. Just a little gusty wind near
downpours and isolated strikes are becoming a little more
widespread. No changes to our General Risk from SPC and the WPC
maintains with their 20Z update. And we continue with a Marginal
risk for excessive which may pick up later on this evening as we
rain out along our stationary frontal boundary.

We are still hanging too drier mid 60 dew points over the Natural
State, while elsewhere numbers are bumping into the lower 70s
along and south of I-20 moisture wise. The much advertised parade
of shortwave activity will see a bigger float arriving this
weekend as a weak upper low 579dam that will settle over NE Texas
by Sunday morning. Until then, we can expect another good round of
diurnal activity for Friday and again on Saturday. And the GFS
shows some lingering nocturnal activity Saturday evening and
overnight as a weak surface low reflection also materializes
during the overnight hours over the heart of our Four-State area.

As far our Holiday proper is concerned, this upper low will have
a dry side and wet side with focus remaining over much of our area
along and east of I-49, while parts of Texas look to see a bit
less coverage late this holiday weekend. This is also depicted
well in the WPC EROs for day 3 and 4, shifting their Slight Risk
areas across TX and into LA for Memorial Day. Overall, our QPF
may be slightly less than what we saw a couple of days ago, but
the Risk remains, as rain rates will remain a concern with slow
movement of convection around the stalled upper low. At least when
compared to previous runs which was keeping more coverage
areawide. However, parts of E TX will fill in once again with
more QPF signal as the Baja, deeper upper low in the pattern
begins to spread over Texas during Tuesday and Wednesday of next
week. And likewise, this upper low is also now modeled to stall
over N TX and linger much convection for our interest to persist
for the remainder of this month. /24/

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 618 PM CDT Thu May 21 2026

Ongoing convection around the region to persist through the
evening with improvement from the west overnight. MVFR/IFR
ceilings to overspread the region through daybreak and gradually
lift to VFR on Friday afternoon with another round of convection
possible after 22/18Z. Otherwise, light winds tonight to become
southwest at 5 to 8 knots on Thursday. /05/

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 222 PM CDT Thu May 21 2026

Spotter activation is not expected over the next 24 hours for
damaging wind or hail. However, the risk of excessive rainfall
and an isolated strong to severe thunderstorm cannot be ruled out.

/24/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  67  83  67  84 /  80  40  20  70
MLU  67  83  68  85 /  90  70  30  70
DEQ  63  80  61  81 /  90  40  40  60
TXK  66  82  65  84 /  90  40  40  60
ELD  64  81  64  83 /  90  50  30  60
TYR  66  84  67  83 /  80  30  30  80
GGG  66  84  67  84 /  80  30  30  70
LFK  67  85  68  84 /  60  40  20  80

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

DISCUSSION...24
AVIATION...05

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
135 PM CDT Thu May 21 2026

LAZ017-TXZ166-167-211915-
Sabine LA-San Augustine TX-Sabine TX-
135 PM CDT Thu May 21 2026

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT SOUTHERN SABINE PARISH
AND SOUTHERN SABINE AND SOUTHEASTERN SAN AUGUSTINE COUNTIES UNTIL 215
PM CDT...

At 135 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a line of strong
thunderstorms extending from 9 miles southeast of Pineland to 14
miles south of Many, or extending from 48 miles south of Center to 34
miles southwest of Natchitoches, moving northwest at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 30 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
  Milam, Many, Hemphill, Pineland, Florien, Fisher, Columbus,
  Fairmount, Yellowpine, Negreet and McElroy.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Monitor the weather situation closely and be alert for threatening
weather conditions.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

If on or near the south end of Toledo Bend and Sam Rayburn, get out
of the water and move indoors or inside a vehicle. Remember,
lightning can strike out to 10 miles from the parent thunderstorm. If
you can hear thunder, you are close enough to be struck by lightning.
Move to safe shelter now! Do not be caught on the water in a
thunderstorm.

&&

LAT...LON 3121 9408 3144 9378 3161 9351 3136 9337
      3136 9339 3128 9345 3128 9354 3125 9354
      3124 9356 3123 9354 3121 9355 3118 9360
      3116 9391 3114 9400
TIME...MOT...LOC 1834Z 145DEG 12KT 3115 9387 3125 9365 3137 9349

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...30 MPH

24