Flash Flood Warning 38, NWS Shreveport, LA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
136 AM CDT Sat Jun 20 2026

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1240 AM CDT Sat Jun 20 2026

 - The expected weak upper low is on approach and will ease over
   our Four-State area early and move out by around lunchtime.

 - So one last cooler day for all, but lower 90s will return with
   less rain and more sun for Father's Day with breezy SW winds.

 - Early next week remains warm with another weak front to our
   north and then another upper level impulse on the light NW
   flow will arrive for midweek.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1240 AM CDT Sat Jun 20 2026

Overcast skies reside for us early this morning with our weak cold
front draped over deep east TX, Toledo Bend country and NE LA.
This boundary separates the lower 70s dew points from the richer
mid to upper 70s in Ruston and Monroe with showers in their
vicinities. Surface winds generally prevail from the NE as
expected this time last night. However, the recent quiet and
rainfree period from Texarkana to Shreveport and Natchitoches is
going to see widespread light shower arriving shortly from E TX,
where coverage is mounting over the last few hours.

A weak vort continues dropping south over Red River Co. now and
can be seen in the reflectivity. This lines up well under the
weakness aloft at 587dam with drier air in trail. The light NW
flow will be pushing this feature to the SE over the next 12 hours.
So far, the enhancements of clouds elements with lightning have
diminished along I-20 east, but we see a renewed potential as the
low level winds from the SE feed the vort with richer moisture
over E TX. So, isolated to eventually scattered to maybe numerous
thunderstorm may accompany this upper low through about noon.

The SPC has our Risk at General, having been worked over early
today and keeping clouds for much of the afternoon. We still have
a good PWAT at KSHV and hopefully some more needed rainfall for
many locales. The WPC has much of our area in a Slight Risk for
excessive rainfall for E TX and all of LA and extreme S AR due to
slow movement primarily. The low level SE winds will work down to
the surface early today and further veer flow from the S and
eventually SW for Sunday. This along with more sunshine will boost
the temperatures back to average for Father's Day with the
official start of Summer right on queue. The Summer solstice
occurs as most of us sleep at 3:24 a.m. early Sunday morning.

It will be warm and humid to begin the new season with Heat index
looking to be in check for most us holding around that 105
threshold. The chance for rain will linger with diminished
coverage for both Sunday and Monday and an uptick Tuesday and
Wednesday with our next weaker cool front and repeat upper level
disturbance combo riding down across the area during Wednesday.
Coverage will slip away again to end the week, but still remain
active diurnally with lower 90s. Then, the next set of surface
and upper lows will be riding on a track just a little farther
north with less coverage south of I-20 to put a bow on June rain
bucket totals. The CPC 8-14 day outlook is for slightly above
temperatures in the low to mid 90s and near normal rainfall as we
prepare to celebrate our Great Nation's semiquincentennial
birthday on July 4th. /24/

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1240 AM CDT Sat Jun 20 2026

Areas of -SHRA have begun to develop across E TX/adjacent SW AR and
portions of N LA, ahead of a weak upper level trough that will drift
E into the region through the morning. MVFR cigs have also begun to
develop especially N of I-20 across NE TX/SW AR, with additional
MVFR cigs expected to develop elsewhere overnight especially as the
convection continues to deepen and expand E across the region. Have
tempoed in thunder and reduced vsby mention across the area
terminals to account for any embedded TSRA, with the convection
expected to slowly drift ESE across the region through much of the
morning before diminishing by midday. Thus, the low cigs should
linger through a better part of the morning, before eventually
scattering out once the convection diminishes. The LFK/ELD/MLU
terminals should be the last to clear the convection, with a
scattered cu field and residual elevated cigs persisting through the
afternoon before thinning by/shortly after 00Z. VFR conditions will
continue through the remainder of the TAF period, although low
MVFR/IFR cigs should redevelop and spread N into the area prior to
daybreak Sunday. Lt ENE or Lt/Vrb winds overnight will eventually
become S 5-8kts after 15Z. /15/

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 1240 AM CDT Sat Jun 20 2026

Spotter activation may be needed early today with the focus for
the day along and south of I-20.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  86  75  90  78 /  60  20  30  10
MLU  88  75  91  78 /  70  20  60   0
DEQ  86  72  90  75 /  40  20  20  60
TXK  88  74  92  77 /  60  20  10  30
ELD  86  73  90  76 /  60  20  30  20
TYR  88  75  92  78 /  60  20  10   0
GGG  87  75  92  77 /  60  20  10   0
LFK  89  76  93  78 /  80  30  30   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

DISCUSSION...24
AVIATION...15

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