Flash Flood Warning 25, NWS Shreveport, LA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
653 AM CDT Fri Jun 19 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 400 PM CDT Thu Jun 18 2026

 - Widespread rain chances return early today, tonight and to
   start the weekend, as an upper disturbance moves our way.

 - A flooding threat could materialize overnight into Saturday
   along with a chance for isolated severe with damaging winds.

 - Light NW flow aloft may bring additional rain opportunities to
   start next week after a dip in the action on Father's Day.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1237 AM CDT Fri Jun 19 2026

Light and variable winds overnight with midnight readings the
warmest we have seen in a while with upper 70s and lower 80s for
most. Dew points are varying with some saturation already, while
other sites with wind have around a 5 degree spread. Patchy fog,
some dense around daybreak will be possible with the moist ground
adding evapotranspiration to mix. We may also see showers and
isolated thunderstorms moving in early ahead of the upper
disturbance which will deepen slightly right over OK/TX. The GFS
is faster closing off a the upper weakness at 585dam this
afternoon and the ECMWF lingers, but drops to 588dam with an
elongated closed low by early Sunday. So this will keep action
possibly heavy and moving slowly. So, while we are good north of
I-20 and ready for more needed rainfall, the evolution of this
upper low may require another Flood watch tomorrow for the
overnight. The drought has lingering hot (D3,D2) pockets which
need several inches before becoming a flooding problem. However,
any slow moving storm could require a Flash Flood Warning if
movement is very slow or stationary. It will be warm to hot today
with another Heat Advisory from noon until 7pm this evening with
highs around 90 potentially and the high RH. Speaking of moisture,
our PWATs will remain elevated through Saturday but more clouds
and rain will ease the heat.

As the upper weakness gets going with the heat and humidity, the
heavy rainfall areas will crop up, and we will be on watch for
those initial excessive amounts. The WPC has our greatest risk
for excessive rainfall with a Slight Risk for our entire Four-
State area, and surrounding areas for that matter. So for those
traveling deeper into any of our four states, get a good check
of the weather during this next day or two particularity. The
days ahead also continue a Marginal Risk for excessive amounts in
short order into the new work week. As far as severe, of course
lightning is always dangerous and we know the drill. When Thunder
Roars, Go Indoors while enjoying area Juneteenth parades today
and the great outdoors in general for this weekend. The SPC shows
a Marginal Risk areawide for us today for damaging wind possible
with cool pools edging outflow from convection into our going
late Spring heat. The shear is weak, but CAPE and as mentioned
PWATs of 2"+ are likely for some damaging winds in clusters or a
potential downburst. Our sounding shows decent dry air aloft, but
that will soup up in time lessening that threat. A weak backdoor
cold front will pool moisture and slowly allow for E and NE winds
to prevail today, but will be shifting back to S/SE for Saturday
and then breezy SW on Sunday to boost the mercury back to averages
for mid to late June. Early in the week, we will see another weak
upper disturbance arriving on light NW with more of the same as
far as potential localized flooding and isolated severe as our
temps warm back into the lower 90s to round out the long term
period. /24/

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 653 AM CDT Fri Jun 19 2026

Low MVFR/IFR cigs have developed and spread N across much of the
region this morning, along and S of a weak sfc front that extends
from the I-30 corridor of NE TX to along the AR/LA border. Only
slow improvement in cigs is expected this morning, before VFR cigs
return by midday/early afternoon. Isolated to scattered -SHRA have
recently begun to develop along the weak front, and will persist
through much of the morning before a large complex of convection
over Srn OK/N TX moves into the region between 14-16Z. These
storms should reach the TYR/GGG/TXK terminals between 15-18Z, and
the remaining terminals through the remainder of the afternoon,
and will be capable of producing gusty winds in excess of 35kts,
vsby reductions, and MVFR cigs. Conditions should return to VFR by
mid to late afternoon/early evening as these storms diminish from
W to E, although MVFR/IFR cigs should again redevelop by/after 06Z
over much of the region. Scattered convection should also
redevelop over portions of E TX/Srn AR/N LA after 06Z, and could
affect all but the LFK terminal through the end of the 12Z TAF
period. S winds 5-8kts today, except E around 5kts across Srn AR,
will become VRB with the arrival of the convection late this
morning/early to mid afternoon. Winds will become ESE around 5kts
after 00Z. /15/

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 1237 AM CDT Fri Jun 19 2026

Spotter activation may be needed today and tonight for potential
damaging winds and flash flooding.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  88  75  88  76 /  70  50  60  20
MLU  89  75  89  76 /  80  70  70  40
DEQ  84  71  87  73 /  60  30  60  40
TXK  87  73  89  75 /  70  40  70  40
ELD  85  72  87  73 /  80  50  70  40
TYR  90  75  90  76 /  60  40  50  10
GGG  90  75  90  76 /  70  50  50  20
LFK  94  76  92  76 /  50  50  40  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...Heat Advisory from noon today to 7 PM CDT this evening for
     LAZ017>020-022.

OK...None.
TX...Heat Advisory from noon today to 7 PM CDT this evening for
     TXZ149-152-153-165>167.

&&

DISCUSSION...24
AVIATION...15

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
801 AM CDT Fri Jun 19 2026

ARZ059-OKZ077-TXZ096-097-108>112-124-191400-
McCurtain OK-Wood TX-Bowie TX-Morris TX-Camp TX-Cass TX-Titus TX-
Little River AR-Franklin TX-Red River TX-
801 AM CDT Fri Jun 19 2026

...AN AREA OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT NORTHEASTERN WOOD...
RED RIVER...SOUTHWESTERN LITTLE RIVER...WESTERN BOWIE...SOUTHERN
MCCURTAIN...FRANKLIN...MORRIS...TITUS...NORTHWESTERN CASS AND CAMP
COUNTIES UNTIL 9 AM CDT...

At 801 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking an area of strong
thunderstorms extending from 23 miles west of Manchester to near
Cookville, or extending from 33 miles northwest of Clarksville to 8
miles northeast of Mount Pleasant, moving northeast at 10 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
  Mount Pleasant, New Boston, Pittsburg, Winnsboro, Clarksville,
  Boxelder, Hagansport, Leesburg, Idabel, Broken Bow, Mount Vernon,
  Daingerfield, Hughes Springs, De Kalb, Naples, Bogata, Omaha,
  Wilkerson, Dalby Springs and Us 259 And I 30 Intersection.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Monitor the weather situation closely and be alert for threatening
weather conditions.

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms and may lead
to flash flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3296 9535 3296 9531 3388 9531 3388 9528
      3391 9527 3389 9527 3389 9526 3393 9525
      3396 9523 3394 9516 3417 9515 3417 9487
      3413 9459 3375 9443 3342 9439 3305 9451
      3294 9483
TIME...MOT...LOC 1301Z 218DEG 8KT 3385 9555 3386 9514 3353 9477 3324
9487

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

16