High Wind Watch 1, NWS San Diego, CA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Diego CA
910 AM PST Tue Jan 6 2026

.SYNOPSIS...
A low pressure system off the coast will produce occasional
showers today into Wednesday. They are more likely near the coast
this morning, then more widespread tonight into Wednesday, with
best chances in San Diego County. High pressure will build
Thursday bringing dry, warmer weather along with areas of
northeast winds mainly in the foothills. The warmest and windiest
weather appears this weekend, but with cool nights.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

A line of showers off the coast seems to be very content to stay
mostly off the coast, but we do expect a few showers along the
coast this morning. A low pressure system is diving southward off
the California coast. It will eventually swing eastward into Baja
California tonight and Wednesday. It has a lot of moisture with
it, but only part of it will produce any showers north of the
border. Hence, San Diego County will be most likely to get the
measurable rain, but slight chances extend over most of the
region (very slight in San Bernardino County). We're thinking
something like 0.10-0.33 inch will fall in southwest San Diego
County. Snow will fall above 7,000 feet in the mountains, with
very little if any sticking. The system exits stage right on
Wednesday and takes its moisture with it, effectively ending any
showers by sunset. A fast-moving shortwave in the northwest flow
Wednesday night and Thursday moves through the interior West as an
inside slider. This will briefly boost westerly onshore winds
Wednesday afternoon and night. Isolated gusts from mountain ridges
into parts of the desert could reach 45 mph. The flow quickly
shifts offshore Thursday as the backside of the slider produces
northerly flow. Areas of northeast winds in the foothills will
increase Thursday into Friday. Preliminary indications are for top
gusts in top foothill spots to reach about 40 mph. Some of these
winds will infiltrate parts of inland valleys. This system ushers
in a prolonged offshore Santa Ana pattern for many days, with
strong and gusty winds at times and places, but not overly
widespread. A ridge of high pressure amplifies along the West
Coast and we lose some upper support from that initial slider. But
a weak low pressure trough sets up shop over northwest Mexico
with the ridge axis firmly settling over NorCal. The resulting
weak to moderate northeast flow aloft over SoCal will combine with
a strengthening offshore pressure gradient at the surface this
weekend. And confidence is fairly high that this is how it will
stay well into next week. Northeast winds will be strongest during
nights and mornings when the gradient is steepest. For mid-
winter, this is a rather stationary pattern. Temperatures will
rise into the 70s and even approach 80 for some spots this
weekend and beyond. With dry air in place, temperatures will free
fall at night in places where the winds calm. Balmy days will be
followed by chilly nights for much of the region, but not for
those breezy spots. Thankfully, the fire potential with these dry
and windy conditions is much reduced thanks to the recent generous
rain that has raised the fuel-vegetation moisture significantly.

&&

.AVIATION...
061700Z...ISO SHRA remains about 10 miles off the coast of San Diego
County. Slight chance (10-20%) a SHRA approaches KSAN through 21z,
briefly reducing CIGs near 1500-2500ft and VIS down to 3-6SM.

Otherwise, VFR conditions and FEW-SCT clouds near 4500-5500ft MSL
over the coastal basin into the afternoon. An additional round of
SHRA is possible after 02z Wednesday, likely starting off isolated
in the SD County foothills, though a few showers could extend into
the Inland Empire and Orange County. Greater SHRA activity possible
in SD County after 16z Wed.  Accompanying this precipitation is
likely brief CIGs near 1500ft MSL and VIS reductions to 2-5SM in
areas of -RA/RA.

&&

.MARINE...
Breezy northwest winds near 20 to 25 knots expected Wednesday night
into Thursday morning near San Clemente Island. Otherwise, no
hazardous marine conditions forecasted through this weekend.

&&

.SKYWARN...
Skywarn activation is not requested. However weather spotters are
encouraged to report significant weather conditions.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...None.
PZ...None.

&&

PUBLIC...MM
AVIATION/MARINE...Westerink