Special Weather Statement, NWS Springfield, MO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
708 PM CDT Fri Aug 7 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 5) for severe thunderstorms along
  and south of the I-44 corridor this afternoon and evening. The
  primary risk will be isolated wind gusts of 60-70 mph with a
  secondary risk of hail to quarters.

- Heat persists through early next week with moderate chances
  (50-60%) for multiple days of Heat Index values between
  100-105.

- A 40-50% chance for above mid-August average precipitation
  (0.5-0.75 inches) late next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 227 PM CDT Fri Aug 7 2026

Marginal Severe Risk this Afternoon:

An MCV with decaying convection moved into southwest Missouri
this morning. Diurnal heating will allow for significant
destabilization this afternoon, particularly across south-
central Missouri and the eastern Ozarks where cloud cover is
less prominent. This is where the re-development of scattered
showers and storms will be the most likely this afternoon. CAMS
depict SBCAPE values reaching 2500-3500 J/kg with a weakening
cap. Furthermore, good mid- level lapse rates between 7-8 C/km,
0-3 km theta-e differences around 25 C, and a microburst
parameter of 5 all suggest at least some potential for strong to
severe wind gusts with the most robust convection. Synoptic-
scale deep- layer shear will be weak (15-20 kt) which will limit
the widespread organized severe thunderstorm potential, but
funky MCV influences may locally enhance shear and allow for a
few more robust updrafts. The Storm Prediction Center has
outlined areas generally along and south of the I-44 corridor in
a Marginal Risk for severe weather. The primary hazard will be
wind gusts up to 60-70 mph, with a secondary risk for hail up to
quarters if updrafts can be sustained long enough. Storms will
be possible anytime between 2 pm - 10 pm with the greatest risk
for severe weather between 4 pm - 9 pm.

A saturated profile will also support high rain rates under the
strongest storms, with hourly rates of 2 to 4 inches. Both the
12Z HREF and REFS LPMM products suggest isolated totals up to 3
to 5 inches will be possible across south-central Missouri and
the eastern Ozarks, which would result in localized flooding.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 227 PM CDT Fri Aug 7 2026

Hot Saturday through Tuesday:

Temperatures will increase on Saturday into early next week as a
ridge axis shifts east and heights increase over the area.
NBM dewpoints are currently in the low 70s, though a look at
forecast soundings suggests afternoon mixing may knock them
town a touch. Regardless, with temperatures in the 90s,
conditions will feel quite hot. Afternoon heat indices are
forecast to climb into the 100 to 105 deg range each day. We
have held off on any headline issuance for now given the
marginal heat indices, but if confidence in locations reaching
105 degrees any given day or multiple days of 100+ increases,
then a Heat Advisory may be warranted.

Rain Chances Return Late Next Week:

Global ensembles depict the aforementioned ridge flattening by
Wednesday. This will open the door to the return of
precipitation chances with any shortwave passage. Current NBM
PoPs are in the 30-60% range Wednesday into the end of the week.
The CPC gives us a 40-50% chance for seeing above normal
precipitation between August 12-16. Since normal precipitation
for this time period is around 0.5-0.75 inches, there is a
40-50% chance for exceeding that amount between August 12-16.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 708 PM CDT Fri Aug 7 2026

Scattered thunderstorms have develop across portions of southern
and south central Missouri to the south. This activity will
mainly be along and east of Highway 65 this evening likely
through 3Z of so. The KSGF and KBBG TAF sites will continue to
be close to this activity early in the TAF period. MVFR
conditions along with gusty winds will occur with the storms
this evening. Mainly dry conditions are expected tonight through
Saturday.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
MO...None.

&&

SHORT TERM...Didio
LONG TERM...Didio
AVIATION...Wise

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Springfield MO
834 PM CDT Fri Aug 7 2026

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-090145-
Bourbon-Crawford-Cherokee-Benton-Morgan-Miller-Maries-Vernon-
St. Clair-Hickory-Camden-Pulaski-Phelps-Barton-Cedar-Polk-Dallas-
Laclede-Texas-Dent-Jasper-Dade-Greene-Webster-Wright-Newton-
Lawrence-Christian-Douglas-Howell-Shannon-McDonald-Barry-Stone-
Taney-Ozark-Oregon-
834 PM CDT Fri Aug 7 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of the Missouri
Ozarks and extreme southeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Weather hazards expected...

  Marginal thunderstorm wind damage risk.
  Limited lightning risk.
  Limited excessive rainfall risk

DISCUSSION...

Scattered thunderstorms continue to develop and occur south of
I-44 this evening. Occasional lightning strikes and locally heavy
rainfall will be the main risk. A few of the stronger storms
could capable of producing small hail and gusty winds. Coverage in
the storms will gradually decrease through the late this evening
hours.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Heat index values around 100 to 105 degrees will persist Saturday
through early next week. Longevity of elevated heat with only
limited relief during the night will elevate heat risk as we go
through next week.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

  Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight.

&&

More detailed information can be accessed at:
http://www.weather.gov/sgf/dsspacket

This product in graphical format...along with other weather...
hydrological and climate information...at
http://www.weather.gov/sgf

Wise

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Springfield MO
811 PM CDT Fri Aug 7 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0800 PM     Hail             5 E Eminence            37.13N 91.27W
08/07/2026  M0.50 Inch       Shannon            MO   Public

            Hail smaller than a dime was reported.

&&

FEH

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Springfield MO
814 PM CDT Fri Aug 7 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0653 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     6 N Round Spring        37.36N 91.42W
08/07/2026                   Shannon            MO   Broadcast Media

            Multiple limbs were reported down with power
            outages.

&&

FEH

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Springfield MO
823 PM CDT Fri Aug 7 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0722 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     Linden                  37.04N 93.13W
08/07/2026                   Christian          MO   Law Enforcement

            A large tree was down blocking the north
            bound lane of JJ Highway.

&&

FEH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Springfield MO
823 PM CDT Fri Aug 7 2026

MOZ093-080200-
Newton MO-
823 PM CDT Fri Aug 7 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHWESTERN NEWTON COUNTY
THROUGH 900 PM CDT...

At 822 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Seneca, or 10 miles southeast of Baxter Springs, moving southeast at
10 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Seneca and Racine.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3680 9462 3695 9462 3696 9461 3691 9445
      3678 9451
TIME...MOT...LOC 0122Z 300DEG 8KT 3690 9462

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Melto

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Springfield MO
949 PM CDT Fri Aug 7 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0617 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     3 W Halltown            37.19N 93.68W
08/07/2026                   Lawrence           MO   Fire Dept/Rescue

            Report of approximately 100 trees and 6
            power lines down, a mobile home roof that
            was removed, and a minimum of 5 barns
            destroyed.

&&

SLM

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1032 PM CDT Fri Aug 7 2026

MOZ098-106-080430-
Oregon MO-Shannon MO-
1032 PM CDT Fri Aug 7 2026

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT SOUTH CENTRAL SHANNON AND EASTERN
OREGON COUNTIES THROUGH 1130 PM CDT...

At 1032 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 9 miles south of Winona to 10 miles west of
Handy to 6 miles southeast of Alton. Movement was east at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Wilderness and Greer.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3653 9138 3675 9136 3692 9145 3698 9122
      3683 9123 3682 9111 3653 9113
TIME...MOT...LOC 0332Z 263DEG 12KT 3686 9134 3676 9128 3664 9131

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Wise