Severe Thunderstorm Warning 55, NWS Springfield, MO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
742 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Storms are expected to move into the area late this evening
  into the overnight hours from Oklahoma. There will be the
  potential for some severe storms mainly along and south of
  I-44 and along and west of Highway 65.

- Additional severe weather potential Wednesday afternoon and
  evening, and again Friday afternoon and overnight into
  Saturday.

- Marginal excessive rainfall concerns through the week in areas
  that see repeated strong storms and/or training precipitation.

&&

.MESOSCALE...
Issued at 742 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026

An upper level trough is currently moving east across the Rocky
Mountains region this evening. An area of surface low pressure
is located across western Kansas with a dry line extending from
central Kansas to the southwest into western Texas early this
evening. Thunderstorms have developed along the dry line across
central Oklahoma into Texas this afternoon and evening. Further
north across Kansas, the cap never weakened enough for storm
development especially with the better lift to the west with the
upper level trough so storms have not developed across Kansas.
A few showers have developed but storms have just not been able
to develop further north. Confidence is now low that northern
storms will develop as the cap will continue to strengthen this
evening across east central Kansas into west central Missouri.

Therefore attention turns to the activity to the southwest in
Oklahoma. Coverage in storms is increasing across Oklahoma and
a cluster of storms is expected to develop on move northeast
this evening into tonight. The upper level trough will move east
tonight and an area of MLCAPE of 750 to around 1000 J/kg with a
weak cap will be in place ahead of the storms to the northeast
into extreme southeastern Kansas and far southwestern Missouri
late this evening into the early overnight hours generally south
of I-44 and west of Highway 65. Instability will remain weakly
capped to the east into south central Missouri into Wednesday
morning but the instability will decrease to 500 J/kg or less
to the east as the cluster of storms moves out well ahead of
the better upper level support to the west.

Therefore, the cluster/line of storms across south central Oklahoma
and north central Texas is expected to move east northeast basically
along I-44 into the area late this evening, generally after 10pm
into the overnight hours. Overall the storms should be weakening as
they move into the area but a scattered damaging wind risk and an
isolated quarter size hail risk will occur into the far southwestern
portions of the area, again along and south of I-44 and west of Hwy
65. Low level shear will be increase some with a low level jet
developing, but the line of storms may out run the better shear.
Therefore, the tornado risk is low, but there could be a low chance
for a brief tornado across the far southwestern portions of the area
if mesovorts can develop, but the risk is decreasing for our area.
As this complex moves east across the area overnight it will be more
showers with some embedded thunder as it moves east across central
Missouri.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 256 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026

It's breezy out there today as the trough pushes into our area and
the surface pressure gradient remains tight. Southwest winds have
been observed at 20-25 mph with gusts 30-35 mph. Temperatures have
climbed into the upper 70s to low 80s despite a good amount of cloud
cover. There are a few hours of warming left, so we're still on
track to reach the predicted highs in the 80s today.

The low encroaching on western Missouri has an attendant dryline
that extends south and west across western Oklahoma and down into
Texas. Convective initiation is expected along this dryline in the
next couple of hours. Headed into the evening, these initial
supercells are expected to line up as they move east-northeast
across Kansas and Oklahoma on their way to us. The northeastern-most
end of the line will reach us first, and may feature some
development out ahead in west-central Missouri as early as 5-6 p.m.
The main line looks to reach our area closer to 7-8 p.m., moving
generally west-to-east with a northeast component.

These supercells will look very scary as they move through Oklahoma,
where they will be riding a moisture/instability gradient and
tapping into all the moisture and warmth that has streamed into the
region with the last several days of southerly flow. However, as
they move eastward into our area and out of the better instability,
they will become less organized/discrete. They are still very much
expected to be severe, just not as severe as what may be seen in
central Oklahoma, so keep this in mind when monitoring upstream. The
stronger/more discrete cells in the line will be capable of very large
hail up to 2-3", damaging wind gusts up to 70 mph, and
tornadoes (particularly in our Kansas counties). With the line
as a whole/line segments, hail up to quarters and damaging winds
will be possible. Again, storms decrease in severity as they
move east due to the loss of daytime heating and storms quickly
gobbling up the favorable environment. The area with the highest
risk for these hazards (SPC Slight risk, level 2/5) is roughly
the northwestern half of the CWA, or a Cassville-Springfield-
Lebanon-Vichy line.

The severe risk will come to an end in the early morning hours, but
there will be little break in the rainfall as a cold front impinging
on the dryline from the west continues to force precipitation in
eastern Oklahoma that tracks northeast into SWMO. Wednesday will be
rainy and dreary the majority of the day. The dryline/cold front
situation makes a final push Wednesday night, and should have just
enough oomph from 1000-3000 J/Kg of MLCAPE, 30-50 kts of shear,
steep lapse rates, moisture, and all a severe storm's favorite
things to bring another round of severe convection in the afternoon
and evening. All severe hazards will be possible with this activity
as well, and the risk will end after midnight.

With the multiple rounds of rain, one might wonder about the
flash flood risk. While there is a marginal risk for excessive
rainfall Tuesday and Wednesday, given that the expected storm
total QPF forecast over the course of two days still remains
lower than 1-hr flash flood guidance, it would take hours worth
of training and/or strong cells to create a flash flood hazard.
This risk is considered secondary to the hail/wind/tornado risk
both days.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 256 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026

The cold front lifts to the north rather than moving through
Wednesday night, keeping us in the southerly flow regime for the
time being. Rain will gradually end from west to east Thursday
morning, and we'll enjoy some sunshine in the afternoon with highs
in the low 80s. The winds settle down as well, with no disturbances
nearby for the first time in several days.

Friday, a deep trough finally pushes a cold front through the area.
This looks like a very classic severe setup, and we are included in
an Enhanced equivalent (level 3/5) outlook from the SPC. Based on
the expected environmental conditions, supercells capable of large
hail and tornadoes are expected for our area, which grow upscale
into a squall line as they progress toward the Mississippi valley.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 520 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026

Cumulus clouds have developed across the region with cloud bases
around 3500 to 5000ft this afternoon and will remain over the
area this evening. Mid and high level clouds will also increase
across the area this evening.

Convection is developing in north central Texas and south
central Oklahoma early this evening and additional convection
development is expected to develop across Kansas this evening.
This activity will move northeast this evening and tonight.
Convection could move into the area as early as the mid to late
evening hours, with additional convection possible tonight into
Wednesday. Another system will then start to move east on the
area on Wednesday with additional storms expected across the
area possibly as early as Wednesday afternoon but more likely
Wednesday evening just after this TAF period.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 300 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026

Record High Temperatures:

April 14:
KVIH: 87/2006
KUNO: 86/2024

April 15:
KUNO: 84/9999

April 17:
KSGF: 87/1937
KVIH: 86/2004
KUNO: 87/2006

Record High Minimum Temperatures:

April 14:
KSGF: 67/2006

April 15:
KSGF: 63/2006

April 16:
KSGF: 66/1963

April 17:
KSGF: 66/1976

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
MO...None.

&&

MESOSCALE...Wise
SHORT TERM...Nelson
LONG TERM...Nelson
AVIATION...Wise
CLIMATE...Camden

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Springfield MO
809 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-160115-
Bourbon-Crawford-Cherokee-Benton-Morgan-Miller-Maries-Vernon-
St. Clair-Hickory-Camden-Pulaski-Phelps-Barton-Cedar-Polk-Dallas-
Laclede-Texas-Dent-Jasper-Dade-Greene-Webster-Wright-Newton-
Lawrence-Christian-Douglas-Howell-Shannon-McDonald-Barry-Stone-
Taney-Ozark-Oregon-
809 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of the Missouri
Ozarks and extreme southeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Weather hazards expected...

  Slight tornado risk.
  Slight hail risk.
  Slight thunderstorm wind damage risk.
  Elevated lightning risk.
  Limited excessive rainfall risk

DISCUSSION...

Storms currently across south central Oklahoma are expected to
continue to move east northeast basically along I-44 into the area
late this evening, generally after 10pm into the overnight hours.
Overall the storms should be weakening as they move into the area
but a scattered damaging wind risk and an isolated quarter size
hail risk will occur into the far southwestern portions of the
area mainly along and south of I-44 and west of Hwy 65. There
could be a low chance for a brief tornado across the far
southwestern portion of the area but the overall tornado risk is
low.

Locally heavy rainfall will also occur with this activity across
far southwestern Missouri. Localized flooding is possible where
multiple showers and storms can track across the same locations.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Multiple rounds of severe thunderstorms will be possible across
portions of the area at times again tomorrow and Friday. Flooding
may be possible in areas that receive multiple rounds of heavy
rainfall.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

  Spotter activation may be needed late this evening into the
  early overnight hours across far southwestern Missouri.

&&

More detailed information can be accessed at:
http://www.weather.gov/sgf/dsspacket

This product in graphical format...along with other weather...
hydrological and climate information...at
http://www.weather.gov/sgf

Wise