Severe Thunderstorm Warning 46, NWS Springfield, MO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
341 PM CDT Wed Apr 1 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered thunderstorms are expected to move over the area
  this afternoon, evening and overnight. There is a marginal to
  slight risk for severe storms. The highest chance for severe
  storms is between 4pm and midnight. Large hail to the size of
  golf balls and damaging winds are the most likely hazards if
  severe storms form. There is a lower chance for tornadoes,
  mainly north and west of Springfield near the front.

- A Flood Watch is in effect tonight for locations along and
  north of a Nevada to Versailles line. 1-2 inches of rainfall
  will be common in this area with localized amounts of 3-5
  inches. Areas outside of the watch will see less than one
  inch.

- Wind gusts of 35 to 45 mph will occur Thursday morning,
  especially along and west of Highway 65. There is a marginal
  risk for severe storms Thursday evening however confidence in
  storm development is low.

- Another round of storms (some severe) are expected Friday
  night into Saturday morning. The highest chances for severe
  storms are expected along and northwest of Interstate 44.

- Cooler temperatures will occur behind the front this weekend
  into early next week, as lows in the 30s are expected Sunday
  and Monday mornings. These colder temperatures could cause
  frost to form if winds are light.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 300 PM CDT Wed Apr 1 2026

Current Conditions and Synoptic Overview: Water vapor and upper
air analysis shows the area in a broad southwest flow aloft with
a strong shortwave moving through the Rockies. The 12Z KSGF
sounding exhibited a weakly capped and unstable environment
however wind shear remained low (30kts or less). A stationary
front remains along and perhaps just north of the Highway 54
corridor with temps in the low 60s north of the front with low
80s along the Arkansas border. Given the weak cap, scattered
storms have developed at times today however storm organization
has remained poor with messy clusters/pulse like qualities.

Severe Thunderstorm Potential Tonight: Mesoanalysis and
forecasts does show strong mid level winds and therefore higher
wind shear just to the west of the area. Latest guidance
suggests that as this spreads into the area this evening, any
additional storms that form should become more organized.
Forecast soundings for mid to late evening suggest wind shear
closer to 40kts with ML CAPE around 1000j/kg. Isolated to
scattered severe storms could occur in this environment with
large hail and damaging winds the most likely hazards. Given the
stationary front over northern portions of the area, we will
need to monitor for any storms that can become rooted on the
front. This could increase low level helicity enough for a
tornadic threat however its highly conditional/uncertain.

Another area of storms to watch will be an area of thunderstorms
that will form in more of a north to south (linear) fashion
from south central Kansas into central Oklahoma. These storms
may move into the area after 10pm and mainly affect locations
along and west of I-49. Large hail, damaging winds and tornadoes
are all potential hazards with this line of storms as it moves
in. There is considerable uncertainty on how long the storms
maintain organization as they move east through the area
overnight. Some guidance weakens it substantially. We will need
to monitor this threat through the evening.

Flooding Potential: There is increasing confidence that a
corridor of heavy rainfall (due to repeated storms) will occur
just north of the stationary front. Latest HREF guidance shows
1-2 inches common/mean with pockets of 3-5 inches in a very
narrow corridor. However this corridor is highly susceptible to
where the front will be and could shift north or south.
Therefore locations along and north of a Nevada to Versailles
line will be close enough to this area and we have included them
in a Flood Watch that runs from tonight through Thursday
morning. It should be noted that south of the heavy rainfall
band, much lower rainfall amounts will occur with some areas of
south of I-44 seeing very little rainfall (less than 0.25in).

Non Thunderstorm Winds: The area of showers and storms will be
moving east of the area Thursday morning. The western areas
looks to see some clearing Thursday morning. A surface low will
deepen northwest of the area and an increasing pressure gradient
will lead to gusty southwest winds will mix down to the
surface. Bufkit momentum transfers suggest 40-45mph wind gusts
at the surface Thursday morning, especially along and west of
Highway 65. We may need a Wind Advisory if confidence increases
in this threat.

Severe Potential Thursday/Thursday Night: There remains
considerable uncertainty on if storms will develop over the area
Thursday afternoon or evening along the front. Most of the upper
level forcing looks to stay north of the area however a few CAMS
do show storms trying to form east of Highway 63 and then
intensifying as they move east of the area. We will have to
monitor this potential with future updates.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 300 PM CDT Wed Apr 1 2026

Severe Potential Friday: A strong upper trough will move into
the central plains. A strong pacific front will also sweep
through the plains, forcing an extensive squall line to form to
our west and move through Friday night (potentially overnight).
Latest CAPE/Shear combo probs suggest the potential for both a
damaging wind and spinup/QLCS tornado threat. Therefore we will
need to monitor forecast trends for Friday night.

Cooler Temps/Frost Potential Sunday and Monday Mornings: A much
cooler and drier airmass will build into the area from the
northwest. Latest NBM has a 30-50% (low to moderate) chance of
temps dropping below 36 degrees both those mornings therefore we
will need to monitor for frost formation if winds are light
enough.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1217 PM CDT Wed Apr 1 2026

Overall a low confidence thunderstorm thunderstorm TAF forecast
since there will be isolated, pop up storms this afternoon and
evening with slightly higher chances overnight. Therefore we
went the prob30 route for thunderstorm potential and expect
additional amendments today/tonight. The BBG area has the
lowest chance of seeing thunderstorms today/tonight. During any
thunderstorms, conditions could briefly drop into the MVFR range
(ceilings and vis). Southerly winds will be gust at times
however the higher gusts 20-35kts will occur Thursday morning.
Low level wind shear is likely at the sites Thursday morning.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Flood Watch from 7 PM CDT this evening through Thursday
     afternoon for KSZ073.
MO...Flood Watch from 7 PM CDT this evening through Thursday
     afternoon for MOZ055-056-066-067.

&&

SHORT TERM...Burchfield
LONG TERM...Burchfield
AVIATION...Burchfield

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Springfield MO
153 PM CDT Wed Apr 1 2026

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-021900-
Bourbon-Crawford-Cherokee-Benton-Morgan-Miller-Maries-Vernon-
St. Clair-Hickory-Camden-Pulaski-Phelps-Barton-Cedar-Polk-Dallas-
Laclede-Texas-Dent-Jasper-Dade-Greene-Webster-Wright-Newton-
Lawrence-Christian-Douglas-Howell-Shannon-McDonald-Barry-Stone-
Taney-Ozark-Oregon-
153 PM CDT Wed Apr 1 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of the Missouri
Ozarks and extreme southeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Weather hazards expected...

  Slight tornado risk.
  Slight hail risk.
  Slight thunderstorm wind damage risk.
  Significant lightning risk.
  Elevated excessive rainfall risk

DISCUSSION...

Scattered storms will develop across southeast Kansas and southern
Missouri this afternoon and evening. A few storms could become
severe with large hail to the size of golfballs and damaging winds
the most likely hazards.

Additional storms will develop to the west of the area tonight and
gradually move in. This activity may come in either individuals
cells or a line segment. There will the potential for severe
storms mainly west of Highway 65 with this round. Hail to the
size of golf balls and damaging winds will be the main risk, with
a lower risk for tornadoes.

A corridor of heavy rainfall will set up either near or just north
of the Truman Lake area tonight. Within this heavy rainfall
corridor, rainfall amounts of 1-2 inches will be common with
localized amounts of 3-5 inches.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Thunderstorms will be moving east of the area Thursday morning
. There is considerable uncertainty if storms will redevelop east
of Highway 65 Thursday afternoon. Strong to severe storms will
be possible if storms do develop east of Highway 65 Thursday
afternoon and evening.

Wind gusts of 35 to 45 mph will occur Thursday morning, especially
along and west of Highway 65.

Another system will move through the region Friday evening into
Saturday morning, bringing a line of thunderstorms to the area.
There is a slight risk for severe storms Friday evening and night.

Cold temperatures could promote frost development Sunday and
Monday mornings if winds stay light.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed through tonight for southeast
Kansas and southwest Missouri.

&&

More detailed information can be accessed at:
http://www.weather.gov/sgf/dsspacket

This product in graphical format...along with other weather...
hydrological and climate information...at
http://www.weather.gov/sgf

Burchfield

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Springfield MO
527 PM CDT Wed Apr 1 2026

MOZ080-081-012300-
Dallas MO-Laclede MO-
527 PM CDT Wed Apr 1 2026

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT SOUTHEASTERN DALLAS AND WEST
CENTRAL LACLEDE COUNTIES THROUGH 600 PM CDT...

At 526 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a cluster of strong
thunderstorms 7 miles southeast of Buffalo, moving northeast at 30
mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Bennett Spring State Park, Phillipsburg, Bennett Springs, Long Lane,
Charity, and Windyville.

This includes Interstate 44 between mile markers 113 and 116.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3762 9280 3754 9277 3751 9291 3751 9302
      3756 9308 3777 9286
TIME...MOT...LOC 2226Z 236DEG 24KT 3757 9298

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Runnels