Severe Thunderstorm Warning 403, NWS Springfield, MO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
244 PM CDT Wed Sep 16 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A Heat Advisory is in effect for the entire area through
  Saturday. Highs in the 90s to near 100 with heat index values
  of around 100 to 105 can be expected. Overnight lows will
  only drop into the 70s. Several daily records may be tied or
  broken.

- Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will occur
  mainly east of Highway 65 this afternoon and again on Thursday
  afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 240 PM CDT Wed Sep 16 2026

The upper level ridge of high pressure remains over the area
along with the hot air mass early this afternoon. The ridge and
hot conditions will remain over the area through the rest of
the week. Highs will continue to warm into the middle 90s to
near 100 today and again on Thursday. Lows will only cool into
the 70s. There will be the potential for some record high
temperatures this week, please see the climate section below for
more record temperature information from around the area. Heat
Index values around 100 to 105 will also occur today through
the rest of the week into the weekend. A Heat Advisory is in
effect areawide today through Saturday.

Scattered showers and isolated storms have developed across
portions of the eastern Missouri Ozarks this afternoon as
instability has increased and the cap has weakened with the
heating of the day. This scattered activity will continue to
develop and slowly move east this afternoon dissipating early
this evening, mainly occurring east of Highway 65. Deep layer
shear is weak with the upper level high over the region. MLCAPE
values of 1500-2500 J/kg are in place east of Highway 65. This
activity is/will continue to be pulse in nature. Precipitable
water values are around 1.75-2" and storm motions are slow, so
heavy downpours can be expected with these showers and storms
but will be brief for any given location and very localized as
this activity is not widespread. The severe risk is overall low
but a strong storm or two with wind gusts up to 40 to 50 mph
could be possible, but lightning and heavy downpours will be
the risk with most of the storms that are able to develop today.

Isolated pulse type showers and storms will once again be
possible on Thursday afternoon/early evening. Coverage should be
less tomorrow than what is occurring today; therefore, most
locations will likely remain dry on Thursday.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 240 PM CDT Wed Sep 16 2026

The upper level ridge will remain over the area Friday into the
weekend before starting to flatten some later this week. Highs
will continue to warm into the middle 90s to near 100 degrees
again Friday and Saturday, and possible again on Sunday, especially
across the southern portions of the area. A slightly drier air
mass will start to move into the area late week, so dew points
may be slightly lower, but heat index values around 100 degrees
are expected through at least Saturday. A Heat Advisory is in
effect for the entire area through 8 PM Saturday.

An upper level trough will move south into the Plains late this
weekend then will move northeast into the Great Lakes region
early next week. The trough will flatten the ridge some and send
a front south into the area later Saturday into Sunday. Shower
and storm chances (30-70%) will occur Saturday evening into
Sunday with the best chances across the northern portions of the
area closer to the upper level trough. With the upper level
support remaining more to the north, rainfall amounts will
likely decrease to the southeast and not all locations could be
impacted by rain--especailly further south.

A cooler air mass will move into portions of the area late this
weekend into early next week. Highs are expected to range from
around 80 across the north portions of the area to around 90
across southern Missouri early next week as the upper level
trough and cooler temps remain north of the area.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1235 PM CDT Wed Sep 16 2026

Scattered showers and a few storms are developing across the
eastern Missouri Ozarks early this afternoon. This activity
will continue to develop and move east into early this evening
remaining mainly east of Highway 65. There is a low chance for
the KSGF and KBBG sites to be impacted.

Southwesterly winds will continue this afternoon becoming
southeasterly this evening and tonight. Outside any storm/shower
VFR conditions are expected across the area through the TAF
period.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 235 PM CDT Wed Sep 16 2026

Record High Temperatures:

September 16:
KSGF: 95/1980
KJLN: 98/1954
KVIH: 96/1954
KUNO: 99/1980

September 17:
KSGF: 96/1953
KJLN: 95/1953
KVIH: 97/1953
KUNO: 97/1953

September 18:
KSGF: 95/2019
KJLN: 97/2022
KVIH: 95/1953
KUNO: 96/1972

September 19:
KSGF: 96/1954
KJLN: 99/2024
KUNO: 97/1954

September 20:
KSGF: 97/1954
KVIH: 95/1954
KUNO: 97/1954

September 21:
KUNO: 95/1955

Record High Minimum Temperatures:

September 16:
KSGF: 73/1927

September 17:
KSGF: 73/1978

September 18:
KSGF: 74/1931

September 19:
KSGF: 73/1931

September 20:
KSGF: 74/2018

September 21:
KSGF: 73/1931

September 22:
KSGF: 70/2017

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Saturday for KSZ073-097-101.
MO...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Saturday for MOZ055>058-066>071-
     077>083-088>098-101>106.

&&

SHORT TERM...Wise
LONG TERM...Wise
AVIATION...Wise
CLIMATE...Wise

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Springfield MO
245 PM CDT Wed Sep 16 2026

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-171945-
Bourbon-Crawford-Cherokee-Benton-Morgan-Miller-Maries-Vernon-
St. Clair-Hickory-Camden-Pulaski-Phelps-Barton-Cedar-Polk-Dallas-
Laclede-Texas-Dent-Jasper-Dade-Greene-Webster-Wright-Newton-
Lawrence-Christian-Douglas-Howell-Shannon-McDonald-Barry-Stone-
Taney-Ozark-Oregon-
245 PM CDT Wed Sep 16 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of the Missouri
Ozarks and extreme southeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Weather hazards expected...

  Limited lightning risk.
  Elevated extreme heat risk.

DISCUSSION...

The Heat Advisory continues today as highs in the middle 90s to near
100 degrees with heat index values around 100 to 105 degrees
occur.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue to develop
across portions of the area east of Highway 65this afternoon.
Most will remain dry. This activity will dissipate early this
evening. Brief heavy down pours and lightning will be the main
risk but a few storms could be capable of wind gusts up to around
40 to 50 mph.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

A Heat Advisory is in effect through 8 pm Saturday. Highs in the
90s to near 100 with heat index values of 100 to 105 can be
expected. Overnight lows will remain in the 70s each night.

A few isolated thunderstorms will be possible Thursday afternoon
across portions of the eastern Ozarks. Most locations will remain
dry as coverage will be limited.

Additional shower and thunderstorm chances, 30 to 70 percent will
occur Saturday evening into Sunday with the better chances to the
north.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

  Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight.

&&

More detailed information can be accessed at:
http://www.weather.gov/sgf/dsspacket

This product in graphical format...along with other weather...
hydrological and climate information...at
http://www.weather.gov/sgf

Wise

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Springfield MO
306 PM CDT Wed Sep 16 2026

MOZ058-162045-
Maries MO-
306 PM CDT Wed Sep 16 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHEASTERN MARIES COUNTY
THROUGH 345 PM CDT...

At 306 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Belle, or 16 miles north of Rolla, moving northeast at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Belle.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3818 9164 3812 9175 3815 9184 3829 9178
      3829 9165
TIME...MOT...LOC 2006Z 217DEG 15KT 3819 9175

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Perez

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Springfield MO
437 PM CDT Wed Sep 16 2026

MOZ069-162230-
Camden MO-
437 PM CDT Wed Sep 16 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHEASTERN CAMDEN COUNTY
THROUGH 530 PM CDT...

At 437 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 7
miles southeast of Camdenton, moving northeast at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Lake of The Ozarks State Park, Decaturville, Montreal, and Freedom.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3810 9258 3809 9257 3807 9257 3805 9253
      3804 9253 3802 9251 3802 9242 3789 9262
      3790 9272 3795 9273 3811 9260
TIME...MOT...LOC 2137Z 223DEG 13KT 3796 9263

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Perez