Severe Thunderstorm Warning 296, NWS Springfield, MO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
144 PM CDT Thu Jun 25 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Marginal (Level 1 of 5) to Slight (Level 2 of 5) Risk for
  severe thunderstorms today. Damaging wind gusts 60-70 mph and
  quarter- sized hail will be the main risks, with a lower-end
  risk of a tornado or two, primarily west of I-49.

- A Flood Watch is in effect from now until 7 AM Friday. Bands
  of 2 to 4" with locally higher amounts to 7" within these
  heavy bands.

- Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 5) for severe thunderstorms on
  Friday. The primary hazard would be localized damaging wind
  gusts up to 60mph.

- Hotter conditions are then expected to occur across the area
  Sunday into next week as highs warm into the 90s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 1245 PM CDT Thu Jun 25 2026

Pulse-type thunderstorms have started to pop up over
southwestern MO this afternoon in a corridor of instability that
lies along and south of Hwy 60. These thunderstorms have had
lightning with them as well as brief heavy rainfall. These
little storms are just the appetizer for our bigger event later
today. An MCS complex has been slowly working its way through
Kansas today. This will continue into our area and bring a round
of severe weather and flooding concerns. The main threat with
this system is flooding and damaging wind gusts up to 60 mph.
There is a low-end chance for a tornado or two to occur with
this system, but it'll depend on if the shear and instability
can line up just right. So far, the shear hasn't been too
impressive (0-1 km bulk shear of 15-25kts) and doesn't start
ramping up until the low-level jet gets going later tonight (0-1
km bulk shear of 25-35 kts) after sunset. However, our
instability is sufficient with 3000-4000 J/kg of MUCAPE. The
bulk of the system will move through in the next couple of hours
and persist through the evening. Then, a stalled front sets up
over southern MO and allows the storms to train over the same
area as the low-level jet interacts with the frontal boundary.

SPC has already put out a discussion this afternoon with a 60%
chance for a watch at least for our western CWA at some point
this afternoon. WPC has put out a discussion regarding the
rainfall totals incoming with this system. We could see intense
rainfall rates of 1.5-2.5"/hr with widespread rainfall totals of
2-4" with localized amounts up to 7". This will be especially
impactful to SE KS and west-central MO where the Moderate risk
(3/4) for flash flooding will occur today. We want to stress
that this could be an overnight flooding situation as this
activity will continue through the night. A few rivers in the
area are forecast to reach moderate stage by Friday morning as
well. Turn around don't drown, and please do not drive through
flooded roadways especially at night!

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1245 PM CDT Thu Jun 25 2026

A weather pattern change is expected heading into the weekend
throughout the beginning of next week. An upper-level ridge is
currently building over the CONUS area associated with a high
pressure system centered over south-central Missouri. This
ridging pattern is going to push 850mb temperatures into the mid
to high 20s C; excessive heat is expected going into early next
week. Heat indicies are forecasted to reach high 90s F to 100 F
with localized areas reaching to the low 100s F within the
area. This will cause for a major risk of heat-related impacts
(3/4) with some areas in central Missouri having extreme (4/4)
heat-related impacts going into the beginning of July. For the
expected heat-related impacts, remember to remain hydrated and
be able to have access to air conditioned indoors.

Heading into next week, the WPC has a likely chance (70-80%) for
above average temperatures for the first week of July (average
temperatures 87-89 F), and into the holiday weekend. Models suggest
consistency with this persistent heat forecast as the upper-
level ridge remains above the area. Dry weather conditions will
pair with this expected heat wave with no precipitation in the
forecast going into next week due to lack of atmospheric
moisture for the beggining of July.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1225 PM CDT Thu Jun 25 2026

VFR for the next couple of hours until thunderstorms become more
scattered. Severe weather may occur this afternoon and evening
with the main threat being 60 mph winds and heavy rainfall. This
thunderstorm complex will move in this evening and sit over the
area through the night. Heavy rain could drop ceilings to MVFR
at times. Break in the rain returns Friday morning and then
afternoon convection returns across the area. Winds will be out
of the south-southwest through the period and will be the
strongest on Friday morning gusting near 20 kts.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Flood Watch through Friday morning for KSZ073-097-101.
MO...Flood Watch through Friday morning for MOZ055>058-066>071-
     077>083-088>098-101>106.

&&

SHORT TERM...Soria
LONG TERM...Soria/Ventimiglia
AVIATION...Soria

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Springfield MO
231 PM CDT Thu Jun 25 2026

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-261945-
Bourbon-Crawford-Cherokee-Benton-Morgan-Miller-Maries-Vernon-
St. Clair-Hickory-Camden-Pulaski-Phelps-Barton-Cedar-Polk-Dallas-
Laclede-Texas-Dent-Jasper-Dade-Greene-Webster-Wright-Newton-
Lawrence-Christian-Douglas-Howell-Shannon-McDonald-Barry-Stone-
Taney-Ozark-Oregon-
231 PM CDT Thu Jun 25 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of the Missouri
Ozarks and extreme southeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Weather hazards expected...

  Slight tornado risk.
  Slight hail risk.
  Enhanced thunderstorm wind damage risk.
  Elevated lightning risk.
  Significant excessive rainfall risk

DISCUSSION...

Marginal (Level 1 of 5) to Slight (Level 2 of 5) Risk for severe
thunderstorms today. Damaging wind gusts 60-70 mph and quarter-
sized hail will be the main risks, with a lower-end risk of a
tornado or two, primarily west of I-49.

A Flood Watch is in effect from now until 7 AM Friday. Bands of 2
to 4" with locally higher amounts to 7" within these heavy bands.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 5) for severe thunderstorms on Friday.
The primary hazard would be localized damaging wind gusts up to
60mph.

Warm temperatures return to start next week with highs in the
lower 90s and heat index values in the lower 100s.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

 Spotter activation may be needed tonight for southeast Kansas and
southern Missouri.

&&

More detailed information can be accessed at:
http://www.weather.gov/sgf/dsspacket

This product in graphical format...along with other weather...
hydrological and climate information...at
http://www.weather.gov/sgf

Soria

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Springfield MO
217 PM CDT Thu Jun 25 2026

MOZ077-088-089-094-251945-
Barton MO-Jasper MO-Dade MO-Lawrence MO-
217 PM CDT Thu Jun 25 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHEASTERN BARTON...
NORTHWESTERN LAWRENCE...NORTHEASTERN JASPER AND SOUTHWESTERN DADE
COUNTIES THROUGH 245 PM CDT...

At 217 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Jasper, or 9 miles north of Carthage, moving northeast at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Lockwood, Jasper, Golden City, Alba, Carytown, Kenoma, Maple Grove,
Dudenville, Meinert, and Boston.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3719 9440 3730 9446 3754 9409 3726 9386
TIME...MOT...LOC 1917Z 240DEG 23KT 3729 9430

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Didio

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Springfield MO
256 PM CDT Thu Jun 25 2026

MOZ090-091-095-096-104-252030-
Douglas MO-Greene MO-Taney MO-Webster MO-Christian MO-
256 PM CDT Thu Jun 25 2026

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT SOUTHERN WEBSTER...WESTERN
DOUGLAS...NORTHEASTERN TANEY...CHRISTIAN AND SOUTHEASTERN GREENE
COUNTIES THROUGH 330 PM CDT...

At 256 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from Springfield to near Sparta to near Taneyville.
Movement was east at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Springfield, Nixa, Ozark, Lake Taneycomo, Battlefield, Rogersville,
Ava, Strafford, Forsyth, Seymour, Sparta, Highlandville, Fremont
Hills, Fordland, Taneyville, Diggins, Oldfield, Turners, Elkhead, and
Rome.

This includes Interstate 44 between mile markers 87 and 96.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3715 9340 3732 9301 3710 9268 3707 9268
      3707 9263 3706 9262 3680 9265 3681 9276
      3674 9277 3669 9312
TIME...MOT...LOC 1956Z 250DEG 22KT 3713 9326 3696 9301 3681 9302

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Didio

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Springfield MO
355 PM CDT Thu Jun 25 2026

MOZ091-092-096-252130-
Douglas MO-Wright MO-Webster MO-
355 PM CDT Thu Jun 25 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHEASTERN WEBSTER...WRIGHT
AND NORTH CENTRAL DOUGLAS COUNTIES THROUGH 430 PM CDT...

At 355 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Mansfield, or 11 miles north of Ava, moving northeast at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 to 50 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Mountain Grove, Seymour, Mansfield, Norwood, Hartville, Duncan, and
Odin.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3713 9285 3740 9263 3732 9239 3709 9224
      3707 9225 3698 9264
TIME...MOT...LOC 2055Z 227DEG 30KT 3712 9263

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Didio

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Springfield MO
358 PM CDT Thu Jun 25 2026

MOZ079-080-090-252130-
Dallas MO-Polk MO-Greene MO-
358 PM CDT Thu Jun 25 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHWESTERN DALLAS...
SOUTHEASTERN POLK AND NORTHEASTERN GREENE COUNTIES THROUGH 430 PM
CDT...

At 357 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Pleasant Hope, or 14 miles northwest of Strafford, moving north at 25
mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Fair Grove, Pleasant Hope, Morrisville, Olive, Sacville, Ebenezer,
and Brighton.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3731 9320 3734 9343 3751 9351 3757 9325
      3748 9307
TIME...MOT...LOC 2057Z 193DEG 21KT 3743 9329

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Didio

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Springfield MO
359 PM CDT Thu Jun 25 2026

MOZ079-089-090-252130-
Polk MO-Greene MO-Dade MO-
359 PM CDT Thu Jun 25 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHWESTERN POLK...NORTHWESTERN
GREENE AND EASTERN DADE COUNTIES THROUGH 430 PM CDT...

At 359 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Everton, or 8 miles east of Greenfield, moving east at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Stockton Lake, Ash Grove, Walnut Grove, Everton, Dadeville, Aldrich,
Cave Springs, Eudora, and Bona.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3730 9375 3747 9384 3761 9354 3734 9342
TIME...MOT...LOC 2059Z 260DEG 15KT 3741 9370

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Didio