Severe Thunderstorm Warning 261, NWS Springfield, MO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
625 PM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Severe thunderstorm watch in effect from now until 9 PM for
  most of the area. Hail up to the size of golf balls and wind
  gusts of 60-70 mph will be the primary hazards, with a
  secondary risk of tornadoes.

- Additional thunderstorm chances on Saturday and Sunday will
  pose a risk for flash flooding due to recent heavy rainfall,
  elevated streamflows, and saturated soils. An associated
  severe weather risk may also develop.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 152 PM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026

Severe weather is expected later this afternoon and evening due
to an incoming cold front. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch is in
effect from now until 9 PM. The 18z SGF sounding shows an
abundant CAPE profile with values near 3000-4000 J/kg. We won't
have any issues with moisture with dewpoints in the 70s across
the area. The main factor in today's set up will be the shear
magnitude. The best shear will be located behind the cold front
which may change the severity of the storms depending on how
quickly the front moves. Wind shear is in the mid 20 kts near
Springfield and the mid 30 kts near Bourbon, Vernon, and St.
Clair counties. SPC has expanded the tornado risk this afternoon
to include most areas along and north of I-44. This is due to
the possibility of supercells maintaining themselves all the
way to SE KS/W MO. Though, if upscale growth occurs too quickly,
then these supercells will merge into a line of storms further
north than anticipated. The biggest unknown is where exactly
these supercells merge into a line, which is dependent on wind
shear and storm motion. Again, this is why SPC has expanded the
tornado threat incase the supercells maintain themselves all the
way to SE KS/W MO. If supercells do make it to our CWA, we can
expect golf ball sized hail and 60-70 mph winds and a brief
tornado risk. Once the cells merge into a line, the main hazard
will be wind as it pushes southeast through the state.

Highs today will reach the upper 80s to lower 90s with dewpoints
sitting in the 70s making it feel warm and muggy. A few clouds
have stuck around most of the day but haven't kept our
temperatures any cooler. Southwesterly winds have been gusty
today near 30 mph due to the surface low pressure system pushing
east through the Plains. Lows tonight will feel a bit cooler
with the CAA moving through. Temperatures will be in the 60s
with dewpoints in the 50s and clouds gradually clearing through
the night with light northeasterly winds.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 152 PM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026

High pressure moves in for a moment on Friday bringing dry
weather with highs in the 80s and dewpoints in the 60s. Then,
another chance for rain returns this weekend with a brief cool
down for the start of next week. Once we get to Sunday, we'll
get to experience highs in the 70s through mid-week.

This weekend will feature a flash flooding threat especially from
Saturday night into Sunday when the highest rainfall amounts are
expected to fall. A warm front will lift over the area for the
weekend and create a warm and moist environment. We'll also have
a couple of shortwaves move through and help to initiate some
showers and thunderstorms. Exact timing for these storms isn't
nailed down yet and chances for rain are high on Saturday at
70-90%. A Flood Watch is looking more likely at this time with
the bulk of the rainfall falling over SE KS/W MO where we've
already received quite a bit of rainfall. Rivers are elevated
and soils are saturated. WPC has a 25% chance for excessive
rainfall over that area and they could see up to 5 inches of
rain over the span of 24-36 hrs. Please see the hydrology
section for more detailed information regarding rain rates and
river levels.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 615 PM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026

Conditions across the region will see short term changes from
VFR to MVFR and IFR as a cold front will move through the region
this evening. Showers and storms, some severe, will move across
the region and may impact area terminals through 10pm local.
Where showers and storms move across airfields, ceilings and
visibilities will drop to MVFR. Otherwise, expect VFR flight
conditions.

Surface winds shift from southerly to northerly after frontal
passage with winds higher in storms, else, winds will be from 5
to 15mph with occasional gusts.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 152 PM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026

Many areas across western Missouri and southeast Kansas have
received over 2" of rainfall and localized areas received over
6" of rain in the past 7 days. This rainfall has helped lead to
saturated soils across portions of the region. FFG ranges from
1.5"-2.5" (hourly) to 2"-3" (3 hourly) across much of the area.
Streamflows are currently running above normal to much above
normal especially across southeast KS and western MO. With the
heaviest rains still a few days out current river forecasts
won't be reflecting the expected rainfall this weekend until we
get closer to the event. However, longer range HEFS models are
showing the potential for some river locations to go back into
Action and Flood stage particularly across our western counties
and southeast Kansas. With recent heavy rains and saturated
soils if additional expected rainfall amounts materialize, flash
flooding and river flooding may develop this weekend. Keep
updated with the latest river forecasts as we approach this
event.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
MO...None.

&&

SHORT TERM...Soria
LONG TERM...Soria
AVIATION...Hatch
HYDROLOGY...Grout

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Springfield MO
303 PM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-122015-
Bourbon-Crawford-Cherokee-Benton-Morgan-Miller-Maries-Vernon-
St. Clair-Hickory-Camden-Pulaski-Phelps-Barton-Cedar-Polk-Dallas-
Laclede-Texas-Dent-Jasper-Dade-Greene-Webster-Wright-Newton-
Lawrence-Christian-Douglas-Howell-Shannon-McDonald-Barry-Stone-
Taney-Ozark-Oregon-
303 PM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of the Missouri
Ozarks and extreme southeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Weather hazards expected...

  Slight tornado risk.
  Slight hail risk.
  Slight thunderstorm wind damage risk.
  Elevated lightning risk.
  Elevated excessive heat risk.
  Limited excessive rainfall risk
  Limited non thunderstorm wind risk.

DISCUSSION...

Severe thunderstorm watch in effect from now until 9 PM for most
of the area. Hail up to the size of golf balls and wind gusts of
60-70 mph will be the primary hazards, with a secondary risk of
tornadoes.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Additional rain chances on Saturday and Sunday may pose a risk
for flash flooding due to recent heavy rainfall, elevated
streamflows, and saturated soils. A Flood Watch may be needed. A
Slight Risk (2/5) for severe weather has been issued for most of
the area on Saturday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

 Spotter activation may be needed tonight for southeast Kansas and
southern Missouri.

&&

More detailed information can be accessed at:
http://www.weather.gov/sgf/dsspacket

This product in graphical format...along with other weather...
hydrological and climate information...at
http://www.weather.gov/sgf

Soria

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Springfield MO
641 PM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026

MOZ055-056-069-120015-
Camden MO-Benton MO-Morgan MO-
641 PM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT SOUTHERN BENTON...NORTHWESTERN
CAMDEN AND SOUTHWESTERN MORGAN COUNTIES THROUGH 715 PM CDT...

At 641 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 9 miles south of Cole Camp to 11 miles east of
Osceola. Movement was east at 40 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Truman Lake, Lake of The Ozarks, Warsaw, Gravois Mills, Climax
Springs, Lakeview Heights, Fristoe, Zora, Knobby, Edmonson, Edwards,
Hastain, and Whitakerville.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 900 PM CDT for
central and west central Missouri.

&&

LAT...LON 3835 9273 3806 9302 3807 9344 3808 9350
      3817 9350 3833 9332
TIME...MOT...LOC 2341Z 263DEG 36KT 3833 9316 3809 9350

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Price

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Springfield MO
808 PM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0803 PM     Hail             1 S Baxter Springs      37.01N 94.74W
06/11/2026  M1.25 Inch       Cherokee           KS   Public

            Report from mPING, Half Dollar 1.25 in.

&&

TEO

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