Severe Thunderstorm Warning 232, NWS Springfield, MO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
530 PM CDT Sat May 30 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) for isolated strong to severe
  storms today through Monday. Hail to the size of quarters and
  wind gusts up to 60 mph are the primary hazards each day.

- Warm and humid conditions on Monday with heat index values in
  the 90s.

- Mostly dry conditions through the work week, with better rain
  chances returning next weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 113 PM CDT Sat May 30 2026

Synoptic Overview:

Upper-level shortwave energy is slowly lifting through the
Intermountain West this afternoon with an associated surface
low over the High Plains. The attendant warm front is extending
southeast into eastern Kansas and the four corners region. On
radar, a cluster of very slow-moving thunderstorms has
developed across eastern Kansas. On satellite, plenty of
clearing has occurred behind the showers that moved through the
area this morning.

Marginal Severe Thunderstorm Risk Today through Monday:

The decreasing cloud cover will weaken surface inhibition and
increase instability across southeast Kansas and southwest
Missouri this afternoon. While convergence along the
aforementioned warm front will not be particularly strong,
isentropic upglide along the boundary may force isolated to
scattered thunderstorms this afternoon and evening in a warm and
moist airmass. A few of these storms could be strong to severe,
capable of producing hail up to quarters and gusts up to 60 mph.

Just 24 hours ago, models were more bullish in bringing the
decaying remnants of an MCS into southeast Kansas and southwest
Missouri after midnight tonight. While this potential cannot be
completely ruled out as model guidance often struggles to handle
these kinds of setups, confidence in this scenario panning out
has decreased with the better forcing to the north of the CWA.

The warm, moist, and unstable airmass will remain in place on
Sunday. While synoptic scale forcing will be weak, instability
will be aplenty, and a few updrafts could get tall enough in the
afternoon and evening to produce hail to quarters and 60 mph
wind gusts.

Upper-level ridging will build across the Plains on Monday. A
subtle ridge-runner may provide lift for additional showers and
thunderstorms once again, particularly across central Missouri
and the eastern Ozarks. A juiced thermo profile will support the
risk for isolated strong to severe storms. A Marginal Risk (level
1 of 5) for severe storms exists each day through Monday.

To that end, warm temperatures in the mid 80s to low 90s with
dew points in the low 70s will make it feel quite muggy. Heat
index values are forecast to be in the 90s areawide.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 113 PM CDT Sat May 30 2026

Ensembles show the upper-level ridge persisting into mid- week
and gradually shifting east. This setup will keep the region
seasonably warm and mostly dry through the work week.

Cluster analysis suggests the synoptic pattern breaks down late
week into the weekend, which will open the door to better
precipitation chances Friday into Saturday. Significant
divergence in ensemble solutions is apparent at this time,
limiting PoPs and overall forecast confidence.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 527 PM CDT Sat May 30 2026

Scattered thunderstorms will continue to move through southwest
Missouri this evening, so have included a PROB30 group for TSRA
at each of the terminals at the start of the TAF period. There
will be additional chances for storms late tonight into Sunday,
particularly at the SGF site, but confidence in occurrence is
low.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
MO...None.

&&

SHORT TERM...Didio
LONG TERM...Didio
AVIATION...Didio

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Springfield MO
121 PM CDT Sat May 30 2026

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-311830-
Bourbon-Crawford-Cherokee-Benton-Morgan-Miller-Maries-Vernon-
St. Clair-Hickory-Camden-Pulaski-Phelps-Barton-Cedar-Polk-Dallas-
Laclede-Texas-Dent-Jasper-Dade-Greene-Webster-Wright-Newton-
Lawrence-Christian-Douglas-Howell-Shannon-McDonald-Barry-Stone-
Taney-Ozark-Oregon-
121 PM CDT Sat May 30 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of the Missouri
Ozarks and extreme southeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Weather hazards expected...

  Marginal hail risk.
  Marginal thunderstorm wind damage risk.
  Limited lightning risk.
  Limited excessive rainfall risk

DISCUSSION...

Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) for isolated strong to severe storms
today through Monday. Hail to the size of quarters and wind gusts
up to 60 mph are the primary hazards each day.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) for isolated strong to severe storms
through Monday. Hail to the size of quarters and wind gusts up to
60 mph are the primary hazards each day.

Warm and humid conditions on Monday with heat index values in
the 90s.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

  Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight.

&&

More detailed information can be accessed at:
http://www.weather.gov/sgf/dsspacket

This product in graphical format...along with other weather...
hydrological and climate information...at
http://www.weather.gov/sgf

Didio

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Springfield MO
556 PM CDT Sat May 30 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0554 PM     Hail             Republic                37.13N 93.48W
05/30/2026  M1.00 Inch       Greene             MO   NWS Employee

            Quarter sized hail in Republic.

&&

JD

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