Severe Thunderstorm Warning 210, NWS Springfield, MO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
147 PM CDT Tue Apr 28 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers and thunderstorms will continue to impact the region
  through the evening (50-70% chance). With additional showers
  and storms, through midnight.

- Slight (2 of 5) to Enhanced (3 of 5) Risk for some storms to
  become strong to severe into tonight, mainly along and south
  of I-44. Large hail up to baseballs is the main hazard
  throughout the day, with a conditional damaging wind and
  tornado risk this afternoon and evening.

- Due to chances of storms throughout the day, localized
  flooding may occur with any repeated rainfalls or training of
  storms.

- Mostly dry with cooler than average temperatures Wednesday
  and onward.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 1259 PM CDT Tue Apr 28 2026

A very unstable airmass was in place over the Ozarks this
afternoon. Despite a significant inversion on the SGF 12Z
sounding, elevated instability was from 1000 to 2500 j/kg, with
elevated lapse rates from 7 to 8.5. A middle level 700mb trough
was approaching the region with a surface low moving across
Texas. This combination is expected to allow the cold front that
moved through the Ozarks yesterday to lift back north as a warm
front this afternoon into the evening.

Additionally, the system this afternoon into this evening will
have middle an upper level Jet support with a 30-40kts
southerly winds at 850mb, 40 to 55kts southwesterly winds at
700mb, and a coupled jet over the Ozarks at 250mb. This will
allow allow for continued upscale growth of storms across the
region. Forecast hodographs remained very long and straight
above the surface inversion which would favor splitting
supercells, which should favor left-movers over right- movers.

There's remains uncertainty in shower, storm, and severe
chances between 4 PM and midnight. Given large-scale synoptic
ascent with the lifting warm front, these storms may be somewhat
widespread, which could overturn the atmosphere, washing out
mid-level lapse rates and associated MUCAPE. What may aid in
storm development is a lifting warm front that as of the 1pm
mesoscale interrogations looks to have lifted into southern
Missouri from Rogers, AR to north of Branson to just south of
West Plains. This boundary may allow for enhanced vorticity and
lift along the front. Along and south of the boundary would also
provide the potential for surface based storms to develop,
allowing for a possible brief tornado spin up.

Finally, with multiple rounds of rain anticipated into tonight,
localized flash flooding will also be possible. Storms will have
estimated hourly rainfall rates of 2 to 4 inches, though
residence time will be shorter. This would still allow for for
localized flooding.

Rain chances should clear our area by midnight, with
temperatures cooling into the lower 50s in south-central
Missouri, and the lower 40s in west-central Missouri.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 1259 PM CDT Tue Apr 28 2026

In the wake of todays storms, high pressure will filter into the
region and allow for a few days of quiet weather into at least
Thursday though possibly into the coming weekend. A weak upper
level trough may produce some light rain Thursday night ahead to
the trough but synoptic models wash out the rain before it
reaches the region. Overall, the upper level flows looks as
though it will be zonal into the coming weekend.

The pattern and rounds of cooler high pressure will bring
below average temperatures through at least Saturday with highs
in the 60s and lows in the 40s. The coolest period still looks
light Friday and Friday night as a trough moves through the
area. High temperatures are forecast in the lower 60s with lows
in the upper 30s to lower 40s. There may be a low end frost
risk if trends continue decreasing temperatures.

Ensembles still show a potential warm-up beginning Sunday into
early next week back to near normal temperatures in the lower
70s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1230 PM CDT Tue Apr 28 2026

A very unstable airmass is in place across the Ozarks with a
warm front south of thew region lifting into the area.
Significant thunderstorm development allowed storms with large
hail to develop and move over the Springfield airport with hail
up to 4 inches in diameter. Additional thunderstorms were
occurring and will continue to impact the regions airports
through this afternoon. Large hail will be a potential to impact
the regions terminals.

Where storms move over an airfield, flight conditions will fall
to MVFR to IFR in rain. Surface winds will remain generally
northeast to northerly. Storms will remain possible through
02-04Z with conditions improving to VFR through the remainder of
the forecast into Wednesday.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
MO...None.

&&

SHORT TERM...Hatch
LONG TERM...Hatch
AVIATION...Hatch

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Springfield MO
212 PM CDT Tue Apr 28 2026

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-291915-
Bourbon-Crawford-Cherokee-Benton-Morgan-Miller-Maries-Vernon-
St. Clair-Hickory-Camden-Pulaski-Phelps-Barton-Cedar-Polk-Dallas-
Laclede-Texas-Dent-Jasper-Dade-Greene-Webster-Wright-Newton-
Lawrence-Christian-Douglas-Howell-Shannon-McDonald-Barry-Stone-
Taney-Ozark-Oregon-
212 PM CDT Tue Apr 28 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of the Missouri
Ozarks and extreme southeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Weather hazards expected...

  Slight tornado risk.
  Enhanced hail risk.
  Slight thunderstorm wind damage risk.
  Elevated lightning risk.
  Limited excessive rainfall risk

DISCUSSION...

A Slight (2 of 5) to Enhanced (3 of 5) Risk for severe storms
exists for areas along and south of I-44 today. Showers and
thunderstorms have a 50 to 70 percent chance of occurring anytime
through midnight tonight. The primary hazards will be lightning
and large hail up to the size of tennis balls. A conditional, low
risk for tornadoes may develop after 3 PM, generally south of
Highway 60 and east of Highway 65. Furthermore, a localized
flooding threat exists for areas that see multiple rounds of rain
today.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

 No Hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

 Spotter activation will be needed today and tonight for the
Ozarks.

&&

More detailed information can be accessed at:
http://www.weather.gov/sgf/dsspacket

This product in graphical format...along with other weather...
hydrological and climate information...at
http://www.weather.gov/sgf

Hatch

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