River Flood Warning 33, NWS Springfield, MO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
143 PM CDT Sat May 23 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. Potential for some
  areas of localized heavy rainfall possible.

- Fog, locally dense, possible tonight and Sunday night.

- Rain chances return next Tuesday through the end of next
  week. There will be periods of dry weather during this time
  between rounds of rain.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 113 PM CDT Sat May 23 2026

Thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. Potential for some
areas of localized heavy rainfall possible.
 - Impacts: General thunder impacts and localized marginal
   flooding risk.
 - Details: Scattered non-severe thunderstorms will continue to
   increase in coverage this afternoon into this evening before
   shifting east. Localized rainfall amounts of 2-3" are
   possible.
 - Confidence: High confidence in coverage and potential impact.
 - Meteorological Analysis: Shortwave energy, a remnant MCV and
   a stationary front (over the NW CWA) have led to
   thunderstorms across the area. MLCAPE up to 1,000-1,500 J/kg
   over the NW CWA and closer to 500 J/kg elsewhere is
   accompanied by very weak shear of < 20 kts. This will lead to
   slow storm movements and potential for very isolated heavy
   rainfall up to 2-3" per REFS LPMM. This could result in
   isolated marginal flooding potential.

Fog, locally dense, possible tonight and Sunday night.
 - Impacts: Travel difficulty for road and air traffic.
 - Details: Fog will be possible both nights and may be locally
   dense. May need a Dense Fog Advisory.
 - Confidence: For tonight, REFS probabilities for < 1/4 mile
   vis are 50-70% along and west of Hwy 65 and across the Lake
   of the Ozarks region. Elsewhere, probabilities for even
   light fog are < 20%. For Sunday night, < 1/4 mile
   probabilities are generally 30-50% over the lakes regions and
   < 20% elsewhere.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 113 PM CDT Sat May 23 2026

Rain chances return next Tuesday through the end of next week.
There will be periods of dry weather during this time between
rounds of rain.
 - Impacts: None at this time.
 - Details: Daily rainfall is forecast, although it won't be a
   total washout.
 - Confidence: Medium confidence in a wet pattern developing.
   Low confidence in daily timing and coverage details.
 - Meteorological Analysis: Weak upper level energy will shift
   north into the area Monday night and Tuesday and remain
   nearby while a deep upper low moves over the intermountain
   west. This will support southerly low level flow off the Gulf
   of America, supplying moisture to accompany the large scale
   ascent.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1234 PM CDT Sat May 23 2026

Showers and thunderstorm coverage will continue to increase this
afternoon and evening before shifting east. Look for another
round of fog tonight into early Sunday morning.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
MO...None.

&&

SHORT TERM...Titus
LONG TERM...Titus
AVIATION...Titus

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