River Flood Warning 28, NWS Springfield, MO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
608 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered showers and thunderstorms continue to slowly move
  through the area this morning before exiting the area this
  afternoon. Low chances for an isolated strong to severe
  thunderstorm. Localized heavy rainfall and flash flooding
  remain possible, a Flood Watch is still in effect.

- Cooler into mid week, with additional rain chances (60-90%)
  on Thursday and Friday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 230 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026

This Morning:
A strong cold front continues to push through the area early
this morning with strong jet dynamics supporting a line of
showers and thunderstorms. This line of showers and
thunderstorms is slowly dropping southeast into the area, with
environment featuring MUCAPE around 1500 to 2000 J/kg in the
vicinity of marginal bulk shear around 30 knots. In general, the
line has experienced gradual weakening trends over the last
several hours, though a lingering strong to severe thunderstorm
threat remains through early this morning. In particular, any
line segments that able to punch down with the RIJ and bow out.
For this reason, the primary hazard with any strong to severe
activity will remain damaging wind gusts. The tornado threat
remains very low (2-5%). O-3km shear vectors are oriented to the
east- northeast at 30 to 35 knots, though low- level CAPE
remains absent. Given this environment, bowing segments that
become balanced and/or interact with boundaries may support a
brief tornado. The tornado threat will rapidly diminish through
mid-morning. SPC continues to highlight the potential for
scattered strong to severe thunderstorms with a Slight Risk (2
of 5) this morning into the early afternoon as the line makes
it's way through the area with the front.

Further attention turns towards an environment still favorable
for heavy rainfall and flash flooding. A corridor of 1 to 3
inches, with localized pockets of 4 to 6 inches occurred on
Monday along the Highway 54 corridor. This area will be
particularly susceptible to flash flooding this morning and
remains in Flood Watch through early afternoon. The environment,
which features PWATs around 1.5 to 1.7 inches as a strong 40 to
50 knot LLJ overrides the area. Strong low-level moisture
convergence continues to amplify deep convection, that has
become oriented west-southwest in areas. This orientation of the
line will allow for training of thunderstorms to occur over the
same areas into early this morning, with efficient rainfall
rates approaching 0.5 to 1.0 inch per a hour. As mentioned
earlier, a corridor across west central into central MO is well
saturated from rainfall on Monday, with 1 hr FFG on the order of
0.5 to 1.0 inch in locations. 3 hr FFG remains favorable in the
1.5 to 2 inch range. Additional localized flash flooding
remains plausible outside of the watch as well, especially in
urban areas such as Joplin to Springfield. Rainfall amounts
through this morning will range from 1 to 2 inches, with
localized higher amounts of 3 to 4 inches. WPC highlights a
Slight (2 of 4) to Moderate (3 of 4) risk for excessive rainfall
for the flash flooding potential this morning.

As we progress through the morning into the afternoon, the front
and associated line of showers and thunderstorms should make
it's way into far southern MO. Most of the CAMs depict a
scenario with little to no redevelopment occuring as the front
sinks southeast out of the area. While low confidence, the only
area to keep an eye on for potential redevelopment would be
along the MO/AR border in south central MO/eastern Ozarks. Winds
become northerly behind the frontal passage today, with highs
varying from upper 60s (northwest) to lower 80s (southeast).
Overcast skies linger behind the frontal passage into tonight,
with scattered showers and a few elevated non-severe
thunderstorms chances. There remains some uncertainty with the
true extent of coverage with the post-frtonal activity. Lows
fall into the 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 230 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026

Wednesday:
Much cooler on Wednesday behind the frontal passage with highs
only reaching into the middle to upper 60s. Scattered rain
chances (30-60%) linger through Wednesday morning before
dissipating.

Thursday-Friday:
Return flow with the frontal attempting to lift back north into
the area on Thursday and Friday will bring increasing PoPs back
into the area. Shower and thunderstorm chances approach 60-90%
on Thursday into Friday, though the environment remains
unfavorable for severe or widespread flooding. Localized
flooding will need to be closely watched given antecedent
conditions from early week precipitation. Meanwhile, gradual
increasing mid-level heights will support a warming trend as
highs return into the 70s late week.

This Weekend:
Broad southwest flow persists into the weekend, with embedded
waves of energy translating through the flow. Persistent rain
chances (20-40%) linger through the weekend, with uncertainty in
the exact timing and extent of coverage. Highs push back into
the upper 70s to lower 80s, right around average for mid to late
May.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 600 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026

A system continues to move through the area this morning, with
associated showers and thunderstorms. Instances of MVFR to IFR
flight conditions accompany this activity as a result of
reduced visibilities and ceilings. Visibilities as low as 2 to 4
miles within thunderstorms. Widespread MVFR ceilings move into
the area this morning, with heights around 1500 to 2500 feet.
Further reductions in ceilings occurs with the frontal passage
this afternoon, as IFR ceilings around 700 to 900 feet
overspread the area. Winds become northerly behind the front.
Additional scattered rain chances persist through the afternoon
into the evening. IFR ceilings persist through tonight into
early Wednesday morning behind the frontal passage.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Flood Watch until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for KSZ073.
MO...Flood Watch until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for MOZ055>058-
     066>071-078>081.

&&

SHORT TERM...Perez
LONG TERM...Perez
AVIATION...Perez

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Springfield MO
306 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-200815-
Bourbon-Crawford-Cherokee-Benton-Morgan-Miller-Maries-Vernon-
St. Clair-Hickory-Camden-Pulaski-Phelps-Barton-Cedar-Polk-Dallas-
Laclede-Texas-Dent-Jasper-Dade-Greene-Webster-Wright-Newton-
Lawrence-Christian-Douglas-Howell-Shannon-McDonald-Barry-Stone-
Taney-Ozark-Oregon-
306 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of the Missouri
Ozarks and extreme southeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Weather hazards expected...

  Marginal hail risk.
  Slight thunderstorm wind damage risk.
  Elevated lightning risk.
  Elevated excessive rainfall risk

DISCUSSION...

- A Moderate Risk (3 out of 4) for thunderstorms with heavy
  rainfall that may result in flash flooding through early this
  morning. A Flood Watch in effect for an area north of
  Interstate 44 towards the Highway 54 corridor. Additional
  rainfall amounts of 1-2 inches, with localized higher amounts
  up to 4 inches.

- A Slight Risk (2 out of 5) for a few strong to severe
  thunderstorms this morning into the early afternoon. A line of
  thunderstorms moves through the area, with the primary hazard
  being damaging wind gusts up to 60 mph.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

- Additional shower and non-severe thunderstorm chances (60-90%)
  return Thursday and Friday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

  Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight.

&&

More detailed information can be accessed at:
http://www.weather.gov/sgf/dsspacket

This product in graphical format...along with other weather...
hydrological and climate information...at
http://www.weather.gov/sgf

Perez

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Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Springfield MO
639 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0607 AM     Flash Flood      Preston                 37.94N 93.21W
05/19/2026                   Hickory            MO   Dept of Highways

            Road closed Route D north and southbound.

&&

TEO